New U.S. Tariffs on Indian Exports and Global Risk Warnings

New U.S. Tariffs on Indian Exports and Global Risk Warnings: India has announced that 55% of its exports to the United States

will be subject to doubled tariffs following recent decisions by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration,
amid concerns over the potential impact on trade exchange and economic growth.
At the same time, Bank of America revealed that the trade war remains the biggest threat to global markets,
followed by inflation risks, amid escalating economic and geopolitical tensions among major powers.

 

Contents

India

Bank of America

 

India: Over Half of Our Exports to the U.S. Will Be Subject to Tariffs After Trump’s Decisions

The Indian government announced on Monday that about 55% of its goods are exported.
The United States will be subject to tariffs recently imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.

During a parliamentary session, a representative from the Ministry

of Finance explained that the government had considered the previous 25% tariffs.
The representative noted that the Ministry of Commerce is currently holding consultations with exporters and industrialists
to assess the impact of the additional duties on the sector.
The decision came after Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports.

Last week, New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil raised the total tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. market to 50%.
Trade between the United States and India was valued at around $87 billion last fiscal year.
Still, observers warn that escalating trade tensions could negatively affect both countries’ trade flows and economic growth.

 

 

 

 

Bank of America: Trade War Tops Global Market Risks, Inflation Ranks Second

Bank of America revealed in its latest survey of global fund managers that the trade war
remains the biggest threat to markets,

with 29% of participants viewing it as the primary risk to the worldwide economy.
>The report noted that rising tensions among major economic powers,
especially between the United States and China,

are fueling investor concerns about slowing global growth and disruptions to supply chains.
>Inflation concerns came in second place at 27%,

amid worries about persistent price pressures and rising production costs,
which could prompt central banks to tighten monetary policy faster.

Bank of America pointed out that these dual risks are reinforcing caution among fund managers despite
The substantial gains recently recorded by markets await geopolitical developments

and economic data to determine the next direction.

 

New U.S. Tariffs on Indian Exports and Global Risk Warnings

Key Upcoming News and Trading Trends for the Current Week

Key Upcoming News and Trading Trends for the Current Week:
This week, global markets are anticipating the release of a series of important economic data
that could directly influence the movements of currencies, precious metals, and stock indices.
The most notable events are interest rate decisions and economic reports from Australia,
inflation data from the United States, and employment and growth indicators in major economies.
On the technical side, gold continues to post gains,
The USDJPY pair fluctuates within a defined range, supported by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut.
The NZDUSD pair awaits inflation data to determine its next direction,
While the Dow Jones Index attempts to approach its historical peak
amid investor optimism regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

 

 

Content
Economic Calendar

Gold
USDJPY
NZDUSD

Dow Jones

 

 

 

 

Economic Calendar

Key News Expected to Be Released This Week:

Monday, August 11, 2025

13:00 – Eurozone
Italian Trade Balance

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

08:30 – Australia
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

08:30 – Australia
RBA Interest Rate Statement

09:30 – Australia
RBA Press Conference

16:30 – United States
Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) – Monthly

16:30 – United States
Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

05:30 – Australia
Wage Price Index – Quarterly

Thursday, August 14, 2025

05:30 – Australia
Employment Change

05:30 – Australia
Unemployment Rate

10:00 – United Kingdom
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Monthly

16:30 – United States
Core Producer Price Index (Core PPI) – Monthly

16:30 – United States
Weekly Unemployment Claims

Friday, August 15, 2025

16:30 – United States
Core Retail Sales – Monthly

16:30 – United States
Retail Sales – Monthly

18:00 – United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)

18:00 – United States
University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (Preliminary)

 

Gold

Gold closed last week’s trading at 3,398 after continuing its upward movement,
particularly due to increased expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September,
which benefits the gold and US stock markets.
Technically, Gold is expected to continue its upward movement, targeting the peak at 3,439.
We may see some downward corrections if reversal signals appear around these levels.

 

USDJPY

The USDJPY pair is trading at 147.70 in a sideways range due to weakness in both currencies.
The weakening US labor market is pressuring the dollar,
while the Japanese yen still needs further rate hikes to regain strength.
Technically, the pair is moving near the upper boundary of the fluctuation zone,
with expectations of breaking above these levels, which could push it toward 150 again.
If reversal signals appear around current levels, the pair may return to test the lower boundary of the range at 146.73.

 

 

 

 

NZDUSD

The NZDUSD pair saw some gains last week, reaching the minor supply zone at 0.5960.
This supports the likelihood of a return to downward movement toward 0.5885,
especially if US inflation rises.
Rising inflation could reduce the chances of a September rate cut and strengthen the dollar.
However, if inflation declines, the dollar may remain weak, and in that case,
we could see a breakout above 0.5974 and a continued rise toward 0.6035.

 

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones index has rebounded in recent sessions,
rising by more than 200 points during last Friday’s session.
Expectations are growing that the Fed might carry out more than two rate cuts this year,
especially if inflation declines this week.
In this case, we may see continued upward movement toward the historical peak at 45,014.

 

Key Upcoming News and Trading Trends for the Current Week

What Are the Types of Investing in U.S. Stocks?

What are the types of investing in U.S. stocks?
U.S. stocks are among the most attractive investment tools for investors worldwide,
Thanks to the strength of the U.S. economy and the diversity of companies listed in its markets.
However, the ways to invest in these stocks vary according to financial goals, acceptable risk levels, and investment time horizons.
This article reviews the main types of investing in U.S. stocks.

 

Content

Long-Term Investing

Short-Term Investing

Growth Stocks

Value Stocks

Dividend Stocks

Conclusion

 

 

 

Long-Term Investing

This is also known as “buy-and-hold” investing,
This is when the investor purchases shares of financially strong companies
with solid fundamentals and holds them for years.

Advantages: You will benefit from company growth and the increase in stock value over time.
In addition to dividend payouts.

Examples: Investing in companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Johnson & Johnson.

Best for: Investors seeking stability and gradual capital growth.

Short-Term Investing

Focuses on achieving quick profits from price differences, whether days or weeks, over a short period.

Advantages: Potential for quick profits.

Disadvantages: Higher risks due to market volatility.

Examples: Trading in tech stocks during earnings reports.

Best for: Experienced investors with high risk tolerance.

Growth Stocks

Targets buying shares of companies with high growth potential, even if their current profits are limited.

Advantages: Potential for high returns over the long term.

Disadvantages: High price volatility and greater risk.

Examples: Shares of emerging tech companies or clean energy firms.

Value Stocks

Involves buying shares of companies believed to be undervalued compared to their intrinsic worth.

Advantages: Opportunity to acquire assets at low prices with potential upside.

Disadvantages: The stock may take a long time to reflect its value.

Examples: Strong industrial or financial companies with currently low stock prices.

Dividend Stocks

Focuses on shares of companies that pay regular cash dividends to shareholders.

Advantages: Steady and continuous income in addition to potential stock appreciation.

Examples: Utility companies, telecommunications firms, and certain real estate companies.

Best for: Investors seeking regular income with relative stability.

Conclusion

The diversity of investment types in U.S. stocks allows investors to choose
What best fits their goals and financial plans?
However, the foundation remains thorough research and analysis before making any decision,
and adhering to a clear investment plan that balances returns and risks.

 

What Are the Types of Investing in U.S. Stocks?

Bowman Expects Rate Cuts Amid Weak Labor Market and Stable Inflation

Bowman Expects Rate Cuts Amid Weak Labor Market and Stable Inflation:

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman affirmed that the slowdown

Strengthens her expectations for the U.S. labor market’s three interest rate cuts in 2025.

Chinese data showed stable consumer prices and continued contraction in producer prices,
reflecting domestic demand pressures and a slowdown in global economic activity.

 

Content

Bowman

Consumer Prices

 

 

 

Bowman: Weak Labor Market Reinforces My Expectation of Three Rate Cuts This Year

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Saturday

The recent weak U.S. employment data confirms her concerns about the fragility of the labor market
and strengthens her conviction that three interest rate cuts would be appropriate this year.

Bowman was one of two members of the Federal Reserve Board who dissented last month against
The decision to keep short-term interest rates in the 4.25%–4.50% range,

where they have been since last December.

In her remarks to the Kansas Bankers Association,

Bowman explained that cutting rates at the previous meeting would have been a “proactive hedge.”
Against the risks of deteriorating labor market conditions and weakening economic activity.
She added that recent Labor Department data reinforced these concerns, showing the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%,
with job gains slowing to an average of just 35,000 per month over the past three months,

reflecting a significant decline in labor demand.

Bowman stressed that her economic outlook, which includes three rate cuts in 2025,
has remained unchanged since last December, noting that the latest data supports her view.
The Federal Reserve has three meetings this year— September, October, and December.

 

 

 

China’s Consumer Prices Steady in July, Producer Price Contraction Persists

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics released Saturday showed

that consumer prices remained flat in July, compared to a slight 0.1% increase in June.
This exceeded Reuters analysts’ expectations of a 0.1% decline.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% monthly, with a 0.1% drop in June.
This increase was higher than the forecasted 0.3% rise.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index continued to contract for the twelfth consecutive month,

falling 3.6% in July from a year earlier—the same rate of decline as in June but exceeding expectations of a 3.3% drop.

The persistence of weak producer and stable consumer prices

reflects the pressures facing China’s economy due to sluggish domestic demand and ongoing uncertainty in global trade.

 

 

Bowman Expects Rate Cuts Amid Weak Labor Market and Stable Inflation

Gold and Oil Volatile Amid U.S. Tariffs and Trump–Putin Meeting

Gold and Oil Volatile Amid U.S. Tariffs and Trump–Putin Meeting:

Global markets are experiencing turbulence and volatility,
Surprise U.S. tariffs on gold triggered widespread disruption in the precious metal market.
Oil prices settled after choppy trading as investors awaited a potential meeting between,

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin
and the possible outcome of a deal to end the war in Ukraine.

 

Contents

Gold Market

Oil Stability

Supply Challenges

Market Summary

 

 

 

Chaos in the Global Gold Market

The gold trade depends on an interconnected network of banks, refiners, and shipping companies.

Still, a U.S. decision issued by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection
revealed in a letter dated July 31 to a Swiss refinery caused significant

disruption by stipulating that gold bullion would be subject to import tariffs.

The surprise announcement sent New York gold futures surging to a record high of more than $3,530 per ounce,
while the London benchmark price dropped by more than $100,

marking the most significant recorded price gap between the two markets.
Prices retreated after the Trump administration confirmed that gold bullion

imports would ultimately not be subject to tariffs.

Robert Gottlieb, managing director at JPMorgan Chase and former precious metals trader, said:

“The government did not realize that this financial instrument is,
At its core, gold is not merely a physical commodity.”

Swiss refiners are key in gold flows between London and New York.

Still, the announced tariffs prompted Asian refineries to halt sales to the U.S. Veteran expert Ross Norman,
The director of Metals Daily noted that the issue is not just about losing or gaining billions overnight,

but also about the significant risks to market stability.

Under Trump’s reciprocal tariff system, the 3% price gap does not cover import costs,

especially with a 39% tariff on Switzerland.
COMEX prices would need around $4,700 per ounce to make shipments viable.

Even alternative suppliers such as Canada and Mexico face threats of strict tariffs.

 

 

 

Oil Prices Steady Amid Geopolitical Watch

In energy markets, oil prices ended a volatile session and changed slightly.
Brent crude for October delivery rose 16 cents to $66.59 a barrel,

while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled below $64 a barrel, breaking a six-session losing streak.

This comes amid talks between Washington and Moscow aimed at securing a deal that would

grant Russia control over territory it seized in Ukraine, in exchange for a ceasefire.
The U.S. seeks approval from Kyiv and European allies, though the agreement remains uncertain.

In a punitive move, Trump doubled tariffs on Indian imports to 50% over New Delhi’s purchase of Russian crude,

threatening similar measures against China.
>While investors doubt Europe would back a deal seen as a significant win for Putin,

renewed cooperation between Washington and Moscow has boosted expectations
that Russian crude will continue flowing freely to its largest buyers.

Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy and former White House official, said:

“The potential ceasefire would have only a mildly bearish impact on prices if the U.S.
And EU sanctions on Russian energy are not lifted.”

 

Supply Challenges and Market Shift

Oil producers and consumers have demonstrated adaptability to supply shocks,

as seen this week with offers of Urals crude from western Russia
to Chinese buyers who do not typically use this grade.
But Putin’s insistence on annexing Donbas and Crimea complicates negotiations.

Other market pressures include the approaching end of the summer peak demand season,

a 7% drop in oil prices in August after three months of gains, OPEC+ easing production curbs,
and signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy amid Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

According to Bridgton Research Group,

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) turned net short for the first time since June,
WTI short positions rose to 36% from 18% the day before,

And Brent short positions are climbing to 27% from 9% net long on Thursday.

 

Market Summary

The latest developments in gold and oil markets highlight their sensitivity to trade and geopolitical policies,

where a sudden decision or political negotiation can quickly shift the balance.
With gold tariffs still under review and anticipation building around the Trump–Putin negotiations,

Investors are urged to remain cautious in an environment of volatility and uncertainty.

 

Gold and Oil Volatile Amid U.S. Tariffs and Trump–Putin Meeting

Wall Street Rises on Tech Gains and Global Optimism

Wall Street Rises on Tech Gains and Global Optimism: U.S. stocks posted their best weekly performance since June,
driven by significant technological company gains, pushing the Nasdaq 100 to new record highs.
Sentiment was also supported by hopes that the United States and Russia
could reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, while gold prices saw fluctuations in trading.

 

Contents

Index Performance

Other Markets and Currencies

Strong Momentum

Investor Behavior

Economic Outlook

Technical View and the Fed

 

 

 

 

Index Performance and Notable Stocks

The S&P 500 index approached the 6,400-point mark, closing shy of a new record high.
Apple shares recorded their best week since 2020,
amid expectations that spending an additional $100 billion
on domestic manufacturing could help the company avoid tariffs.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares also rose sharply,
Following reports,
The U.S. government is preparing to launch an initial public offering of the two companies later this year.

 

 

Other Markets and Currencies

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by three basis points to 4.28%,
while the dollar remained almost unchanged and oil prices experienced volatility.

The Trump administration indicated it plans to issue
a new policy clarifying that imports of gold bullion will not be subject to tariffs.

President Donald Trump also announced a “very soon” meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin
to reach a ceasefire agreement and end the war in Ukraine.

 

 

Strong Momentum in the Stock Market

Brett Kenwell of eToro said that momentum in equities has been strong,
With technical and fundamental factors aligning in favor of buyers, adding:

“While unforeseen risks may emerge in the second half of 2025,
Earnings have come in better than expected, and the Fed is nearing a rate cut.
As long as the economy remains intact, there are catalysts for continued stock gains.”

Donald Trump stressed that tariffs “have a tremendous positive impact on the stock market,”
Noting that new records are being set almost daily
and that hundreds of billions of dollars are flowing into the country’s coffers.

 

Investor Behavior and Fund Flows

Florian Ielpo of Lombard Odier said markets showed a strong rebound this week,
with an apparent increase in buying on dips,
after a previous week marked by lukewarm reactions to earnings results.

Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler noted that some investors who doubted
The rally must now “buy the dip… rather than sell the rip.”

Despite the recovery, about $28 billion was withdrawn from U.S. equities in the week ending August 6,
while money market funds attracted around $107 billion, according to EPFR Global data cited by Bank of America.

 

 

 

 

 

Macroeconomic Outlook

Michael Hartnett of Bank of America said most of the bank’s clients are betting on a “Goldilocks” scenario
an economy without sharp fluctuations—with expectations that low interest rates will fuel stock gains.

Kenwell of eToro added that it is healthy for markets to consolidate or move sideways after substantial gains.
Predicting that any pullback will likely be seen as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit.

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi of UBS said strong fundamentals should keep equities supported
but warned that fresh news next week could test investor sentiment,
which remains vulnerable to tariff, economic, and geopolitical risks.

 

Technical View and the Fed

Mark Hackett of Nationwide said the next significant market move will be driven by fundamentals.
Either macroeconomic resilience that lifts earnings estimates
or signs of weakness in the labor market that raise recession concerns.

Alberto Musalem, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,
supported last week’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged,
noting that the Fed still needs to make more progress on inflation.

Traders will soon focus on next week’s U.S. inflation data,
TD Securities strategists expect the July Consumer Price Index to show further momentum in core inflation.

 

 

Wall Street Rises on Tech Gains and Global Optimism

Ethereum Passes $4,000, Highest Since Dec 2024

Ethereum Passes $4,000, Highest Since Dec 2024: Ethereum posted a strong rally,
surpassing the $4,000 mark for the first time since last December.
This was supported by large investment inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
that invest directly in the cryptocurrency and increased demand
from companies that have begun adding the digital asset to their balance sheet reserves.

 

Contents
Ethereum Performance

Crypto Treasury

Shift in the Digital Asset Market

Performance Below the All-Time High

 

 

 

Ethereum Performance

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency gained about 3.5%,
reaching $4,013 in New York trading yesterday before retreating to around $3,965 by midday.
This means Ethereum has risen by about 190% compared to its lowest level in April,
driven by record inflows into funds that invest directly in the asset.

 

Crypto Treasury

Data shows that more than $6.7 billion has flowed into nine U.S.-
listed ETFs focused on Ethereum since the start of the year.

At the same time, crypto treasury companies
entities specialized in accumulating digital assets
have purchased over $12 billion worth of Ethereum,
According to strategicethreserve.xyz, a website that tracks the sector.

 

Shift in the Digital Asset Market

This surge aligns with a broader trend in the cryptocurrency market.
Institutional investors and developers are beginning to look beyond Bitcoin,
With increasing reliance on stablecoins,
tokenized real-world assets and smart contract platforms,
Many operate on the Ethereum network, with Ether as their native currency.

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, said:

“Bitcoin’s dominance has declined significantly as banks,
fintech companies and institutions turn to stablecoins,
which will be settled via open-source blockchain platforms like Ethereum.”

He added:

“Capital markets remain very open to crypto treasury companies,
which adds buying pressure to the spot Ethereum market.”

 

Performance Below the All-Time High

Despite the recent strong performance, Ethereum remains about 18% below its all-time high of around $4,867,
recorded in November 2021.
This follows a period of underperformance compared to Bitcoin and newer competitors such as Solana.

 

Ethereum Passes $4,000, Highest Since Dec 2024

Samsung, Apple, and TSMC Stocks Surge After U.S. Tariff Exemptions and Joint Manufacturing Deals

Samsung, Apple, and TSMC Stocks Surge After U.S. Tariff Exemptions and Joint Manufacturing Deals:
The shares of tech giants Samsung, Apple, and TSMC saw substantial gains during Thursday’s trading session
Following the announcement of several positive developments,
Most notably, new U.S. tariff exemptions and expanded industrial cooperation among these companies within the United States.

 

Contents

Apple

Taiwan

 

 

 

Apple

Samsung Electronics shares rose by 3.2% on the Seoul Stock Exchange after the company announced
a new partnership with Apple to supply semiconductor chips from its facility in Texas,
for use in Apple products, including iPhones.

Apple noted that this partnership is part of its broader plan to increase its U.S. manufacturing investments by an additional $100 billion.
The company aims to reduce dependence on global supply chains and counter growing political pressures.

Meanwhile, Yoo Han-koo, South Korea’s trade envoy,
stated that Samsung and SK Hynix would not be affected by the new 100% U.S. tariffs on chip imports
due to existing trade agreements between Washington and Seoul—a development
that boosted market optimism about the future of Korea’s semiconductor industry in the U.S.

In the same context, Apple’s stock notably increased on Wednesday. It continued to gain in pre-market trading,
Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on chip imports
with exemptions for companies that have manufacturing facilities or plans within the U.S.

Apple had previously warned of potential multi-billion-dollar losses due to the tariffs.
Still, its latest announcement to boost industrial investment in the U.S. was seen
as a direct response to secure an exemption, strengthening investor confidence, and pushing the stock higher.

 

 

 

Taiwan

On the Taiwanese side, TSMC, the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer,
saw its shares rise by 4.44% on the Taiwan Stock Exchange after it announced an exemption from the new tariffs,
Thanks to its major industrial projects in Arizona.

The company’s shares rose 2.65% on the New York Stock Exchange during after-hours trading, reaching USD 237.50.

Taiwanese officials indicated that TSMC’s investments in the U.S. automatically qualify it for the tariff exemptions.
Other companies are also expected to receive similar exemptions if they commit to establishing or expanding factories within the U.S.

These developments reflect a global trend toward localizing chip manufacturing in the U.S.
And reducing dependence on foreign production—particularly amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical concerns.
This shift paves the way for significant growth opportunities for companies committed to domestic U.S. manufacturing.

 

 

Samsung, Apple, TSMC Rally on U.S. Tariff Easing and Deals

Global Anticipation for Putin-Trump Meeting

Global Anticipation for Putin-Trump Meeting Amid Hopes to End the War

Political and economic developments continue to stir markets ahead of pivotal summits.

 

Contents

 

 

Trump

Putin and Trump Prepare for an Upcoming Meeting Amid Hopes of Ending the Ukraine War

Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov announced on Thursday that Russia and the United States have reached
a preliminary agreement to hold a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming days.
Preparations for the summit are already underway.

Ushakov added that while the exact timeframe needed for organizing the meeting is still under evaluation,
the aim is to hold it within the next week.
Although the location has not been publicly disclosed, both sides have agreed on it, and the venue will be announced later.

He also mentioned that Moscow has yet to respond to a proposal from U.S. Special Envoy Steve Whitcoff,
suggesting a joint meeting including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky alongside Putin and Trump.

This announcement comes after Trump stated from the Oval Office on Wednesday
that he is optimistic about the possibility of meeting with Putin soon,
calling it a “very good opportunity” to pave the way toward resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

 

Daly

U.S. Economy Slowing Down as Rate Cut Timing Approaches

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,
stated that a sense of caution is prevailing across the U.S. economy,
leading to slower growth without a full-blown recession.
She noted early signs of labor market softening and warned that further deceleration would be unwelcome.

On trade policy, Daly acknowledged that the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump could raise prices
in the short term but said she does not expect them to lead to long-term inflation requiring aggressive monetary tightening.

She emphasized that the Federal Reserve may soon need to shift its policy path,
stating that “the time is approaching” to cut interest rates.
Daly pointed out that policymakers cannot wait for “complete clarity” before taking action,
especially given the current economic challenges.

 

Germany

Germany’s Exports to the U.S. Drop to Lowest Level in Over Two Years

Official data released on Thursday showed a significant decline in German exports—the largest economy in Europe—to the United States for the third consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since February 2022.

German exports to the U.S. fell by 2.1% in June on a monthly basis, amounting to €11.8 billion ($13.76 billion),
representing an annual drop of 8.4%.
The decline reflects weakening U.S. demand for German goods amid escalating trade tensions between the two countries.

Conversely, German imports from the United States rose during the same month,
narrowing Germany’s trade surplus with Washington.

Overall, German exports in June rose by 0.8% month-over-month,
supported by stronger shipments within the European Union,
while imports surged by 4.2%. This resulted in a decrease in the goods trade surplus to €14.9 billion, down from €18.5 billion in May.

 

 

 

Global Anticipation for Putin-Trump Meeting Amid Hopes to End the War

Market Tensions Push Gold Higher and Cap Oil Gains

Market Tensions Push Gold Higher and Cap Oil Gains Despite Trump’s Efforts

Energy and metals markets moved cautiously amid escalating trade and diplomatic tensions.

 

Contents

 

Oil

Partial Recovery After Longest Losing Streak Since May

Oil prices posted a slight rebound after five consecutive days of losses—the longest streak since May.
Brent crude rose above $67 a barrel, trimming part of the 8.7% loss recorded over the past sessions, while West Texas Intermediate settled near $65, as investors closely followed U.S. actions targeting major buyers of Russian crude.

U.S. President Donald Trump intensified trade pressure, announcing a doubling of tariffs on Indian goods to 50% due to New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian energy. Meanwhile, similar action was notably absent against China, another major importer of Moscow’s oil.

Diplomatically, Trump signaled a “very good chance” of an upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a renewed effort to mediate peace. He also confirmed “more sanctions coming” related to Russian oil purchases, with Russia being a member of the OPEC+ alliance.

In light of these developments, markets are bracing for a potential supply surplus later this year following OPEC+’s decision to return more than half a million barrels per day to the market starting in September. This comes as Saudi Arabia raised its official selling prices for the second consecutive month, reflecting confidence in demand.

 

 

Gold

Holds Steady Backed by Rate-Cut Bets Despite Threats

Gold prices held steady near $3,370 an ounce, shrugging off escalating rhetoric from Washington—most notably, Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports in a push to force production back to U.S. soil.

Despite growing friction with trade partners like India and Japan, market participants largely dismissed the noise, focusing instead on increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which typically support gold prices. The anticipation of Trump nominating a temporary Federal Reserve member aligned with his dovish agenda further fueled that sentiment.

Gold has already posted strong annual gains of over 30%, supported by sustained central bank purchases and a growing shift away from U.S. dollar-based assets. These moves come amid a backdrop of intensifying geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures.

 

 

Market Tensions Push Gold Higher and Cap Oil Gains