Improvement in U.S. Employment with Slight Increase in Unemployment in November U.S. labor market data for November revealed the addition of 227,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations of 200,000 jobs.
The October report was revised to show an addition of 36,000 jobs instead of 12,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations, compared to 4.1% in October.
Average hourly earnings saw a monthly increase of 0.4%, surpassing expectations of 0.3% and matching October’s growth rate.
On an annual basis, wages grew by 4.0%, exceeding expectations of 3.9% and aligning with October’s recorded growth.
These figures confirm the ongoing improvement in the U.S. labor market,
with increases in employment and wages despite the slight rise in unemployment.
China
China’s Central Bank Resumes Gold Purchases After a Six-Month Hiatus China’s central bank resumed goldpurchases in November after a six-month pause, despite record-high prices.
According to official data, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 160,000 ounces, bringing the total to 72.96 million ounces.
The bank had consistently raised its holdings for 18 months until April, contributing to global gold price support.
The renewed buying reflects the bank’s strategy to diversify its reserves and hedge against currency value decline,
even as gold reached its highest-ever levels in October.
This surge was driven by demand as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine,
and uncertainty leading up to the U.S. presidential elections.
Despite gold’s strong performance, prices saw some easing following Donald Trump’s election victory and a reduction in geopolitical tensions. Although gold has risen by approximately 30% year-to-date, consumer demand in China has softened,
with a decline in luxury goods like jewelry.
However, sales of gold bars and coins have remained stable as investors seek to protect their wealth amid economic weakness.
Apple Moves Toward Cellular-Connected Mac and Headphones: Apple is developing new proprietary technology for modem chips,
paving the way for innovative devices, including slimmer iPhones,
Mac computers and headphones with cellular connectivity.
According to informed sources, the company is expected
to rely on an internally designed advanced modem chip that will debut next year.
According to a report published by Bloomberg,
this chip will gradually replace components provided by Qualcomm over three years. Content
Replacing Qualcomm components with an in-house modem
Apple engineers have long faced challenges due
to the large space occupied by Qualcomm components inside iPhones.
To address this issue, the company developed a new modem,
codenamed “Sinope,” which integrates more seamlessly with other internal components,
making it more energy-efficient and space-saving.
The first device to benefit from this new modem will be the upcoming iPhone SE,
which is expected to launch next year.
It will be followed by another device codenamed “D23,” anticipated for release in late 2025.
This device is said to be the thinnest in Apple’s history,
reflecting the company’s efforts to reduce reliance on Qualcomm.
Slimmer and more innovative designs
Thanks to this internal modem, Apple can offer a smartphone that is approximately 2mm thinner
than the iPhone 16 Pro while maintaining space for the battery and essential components.
These advancements may eventually lead to entirely new designs,
including foldable devices, which Apple continues to explore.
Cellular connectivity comes to Mac
With its progress in modem development, Apple is exploring the possibility of adding cellular connectivity to Mac devices for the first time,
enabling users to connect to the internet without relying on Wi-Fi networks.
The company plans to implement this technology in 2026,
coinciding with the release of the second-generation modem featuring faster connection speeds.
Headphones with cellular connectivity
Apple is also considering incorporating cellular connectivity into future headphones,
including new versions of the Vision Pro.
This move aims to expand the capabilities of future devices,
such as lightweight augmented reality glasses,
which may take several more years to reach the market.
The new modem chips are expected to be used initially
in low-cost iPad models next year,
with future updates covering Pro models of iPhones and iPads by 2026.
However, there are currently no plans to develop
an internal modem to support cellular connectivity for Apple Watches.
Apple Moves Toward Cellular-Connected Mac and Headphones
Wall Street Hits Record Highs Backed by Jobs Report
Rate-Cut Bets Rise Amid Strong Labor Market
Wall Street indices reached record highs following a U.S. jobs report that highlighted labor market stability,
boosting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
The S&P 500 recorded its 57th all-time high of the year, climbing over 30% since the start of the year,
marking its largest annual gain since 2019. In the bond market, short-term Treasuries—most sensitive to monetary policy changes—outperformed,
while 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.15%. Meanwhile,
markets are pricing in a 20-basis-point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
Labor Market
The November jobs report showed an increase in employment with a slight uptick in the unemployment rate,
signaling a stable labor market.
Analysts noted that these figures provide reassurance to markets without indicating significant economic deterioration.
Investors, however, are now awaiting next week’s inflation report to assess whether the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate cut.
Krishna Guha from Evercore emphasized that passing the inflation test will be the key determinant for future monetary policy decisions.
Outlook
With labor market stability and relatively contained inflation,
analysts believe the positive investment environment will support risky assets.
An HSBC report suggested that the S&P 500 could achieve further gains in 2025 despite high valuations.
However, experts caution that the current momentum could lead to an asset bubble,
particularly with the continued rise of stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Nonetheless, the overall sentiment remains optimistic,
as markets are expected to stay buoyed by strong economic growth and accommodative monetary policies.
Wall Street Hits Record Highs Backed by Jobs Report
Japanese Stocks Gain Amid South Korea Calm and Yen Weakness: Japanese stocks closed higher on Thursday,
supported by easing political tensions in South Korea and a weaker yen against the dollar.
The Nikkei index ended the session up 0.3%,
gaining 119 points to 39,395 points, while the broader Topix index settled at 2,742 points.
Japanese Stocks Gain Amid South Korea Calm and Yen Weakness
Japanese stocks closed higher on Thursday,
supported by easing political tensions in South Korea and a weaker yen against the dollar.
The Nikkei index ended the session up 0.3%,
gaining 119 points to 39,395 points, while the broader Topix index settled at 2,742 points.
This positive performance followed a decline in demand for sovereign bonds,
with the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rising by 1.9 basis points to 1.072%,
compared to 1.05% the previous day.
This increase is attributed to the calming political environment in South Korea after the lifting of martial law.
Despite the yen appreciating 0.46% against the dollar to reach 149.90 yen,
negatively impacting exporters, the market maintained its positive momentum.
Investors are now considering the Bank of Japan’s meeting on December 18–19,
expecting a potential 25-basis-point hike in the key interest rate, bringing it to 0.5%.
Bitcoin Breaks $100,000 for the First Time, Achieves Record Gains
Bitcoin surged significantly for the second consecutive session,
breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time in history,
reaching $103,620 during Asian trading, according to data from BitStamp.
This jump represents an increase of over $4,000 compared to the $94,500 level recorded yesterday.
The cryptocurrency took only minutes to cross the $100,000 threshold and reach its new peak,
driven by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement of Paul Atkins
a known cryptocurrency advocate, as his nominee to lead
the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), succeeding Gary Gensler.
With this rally, Bitcoin has recorded a remarkable 140% gain since the beginning of the year,
outperforming most traditional assets.
Its market capitalization has now exceeded $2 trillion for the first time in history,
solidifying its position as the most valuable digital asset worldwide.
Japanese Stocks Gain Amid South Korea Calm and Yen Weakness
Beige Book Report: U.S. Economic Activity Records Modest Growth Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns
The latest Beige Book report, released on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve,
indicated that U.S. economic activity experienced slight growth across most districts.
Three regions reported moderate to average growth, offsetting flat or slightly declining activity in two others.
The report, based on information collected from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, is published eight times a year.
The report highlighted a moderate improvement in growth expectations across most regions and sectors.
Businesses expressed cautious optimism about the economy, anticipating an increase in demand over the coming months.
Price increases were generally modest across the Federal Reserve districts.
The report also noted growing challenges for businesses in passing higher costs onto customers.
Input prices were rising faster than selling prices for most companies, resulting in narrower profit margins.
Additionally, businesses expect the current pace of price growth to persist,
with several districts emphasizing that tariffs remain a significant risk to inflation.
Inflation Concerns and Monetary Policy
In a speech delivered in Washington this week, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Christopher Waller acknowledged
that recent data suggests the fight against inflation might slow at a level significantly above the 2% target.
However, he expressed confidence that inflation will continue its downward trend over the medium term.
Based on current data and forecasts, he indicated a preference for supporting a rate cut at the upcoming December meeting.
Market Expectations for Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve is set to hold its final monetary policy meeting of the year on December 17–18.
Markets currently estimate a 77.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut during the upcoming meeting.
Beige Book Report: U.S. Economic Activity Records Modest Growth
Bitcoin Surpasses $100,000 for the First Time Following Appointment of Crypto Advocate to the SEC Bitcoin hits a new record, exceeding $100,000, fueled by the appointment of a crypto-friendly figure to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, signaling a potential shift in regulatory policies and unprecedented support for the sector.
President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Paul Atkins, known for his support of cryptocurrencies, as the new head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, sparked a wave of optimism in the digital asset market. The announcement propelled Bitcoin to a historic milestone, surpassing $100,000 in Asian trading on Thursday. The cryptocurrency later reached $103,000, while the overall market value of cryptocurrencies soared by approximately $1.4 trillion since Trump’s election victory.
This appointment follows a prolonged period of stringent regulatory measures under outgoing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who adopted a tough stance on crypto assets, particularly after the 2022 market crash. With Atkins at the helm, the market anticipates a significant shift toward more supportive policies, raising investors’ hopes for a brighter future in the digital currency space.
Historic Surge and Market Volatility
As traders celebrate this development, analysts have cautioned about the inherent volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Despite Bitcoin’s 135% rise this year, questions linger about the sustainability of this growth amidst critics urging caution.
On the other hand, the market drew further encouragement from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of cryptocurrencies, which bolstered global optimism. Additionally, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. recorded substantial inflows of $32 billion this year, with a notable surge since Trump’s election.
A New Vision for Cryptocurrencies
Trump has pledged to transform the U.S. into a global hub for cryptocurrencies by rolling back previous restrictions
and appointing pro-crypto regulators.
Among his bold proposals is the creation of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve,
reflecting his ambitious vision to enhance the digital currency’s role in the U.S. economy.
This historic rise of Bitcoin marks a turning point in the cryptocurrency narrative but also raises questions
about the market’s readiness to handle such explosive growth amid regulatory and volatility challenges.
Wall Street Indices Hit Record Highs on Powell’s Positive Remarks: U.S. stock indices reached new record highs,
driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements emphasizing the remarkable strength of the U.S. economy.
Meanwhile, the euroexperienced significant volatility following the fall of the French government after a no-confidence vote in parliament.
Strong Performance of Technology Stocks Drives Indices to New Highs
Significant gains in major technology stocks pushed the S&P 500 Index to its 56th record close this year,
while the Nasdaq 100 rose by more than 1%. Nvidiawas the key driver of the “Magnificent Seven” index,
which includes Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Apple. The index has gained nearly 65% year-to-date. At the same time, Salesforceand Marvell Technology stocks continued to climb,
reinforcing expectations that both companies would benefit further from rapid growth in the artificial intelligence sector. Speaking at the New York Times DealBook Conference,
Powell highlighted that Federal Reserve policymakers can afford to be cautious in adjusting interest rates toward a neutral level.
This level neither stimulates nor restrains the economy.
Economic Activity Increases
Krishna Guha of Evercore described Powell’s remarks as “slightly hawkish” but emphasized
that they continue to bolster market confidence in a December rate cut, which remains the baseline scenario.
The Beige Book, one of Powell’s favored economic indicators, showed a slight increase in economic activity in November,
accompanied by growing optimism among businesses regarding future demand. In terms of indices, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%,
and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.7%. In the bond market, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell by 4 basis points to 4.18%.
In Europe, French bond futures held onto previous gains after
far-right leader Marine Le Pen joined a left-wing coalition to topple the government,
heightening political tensions that had been weighing on French assets for months.
A Risky Market Environment
Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers noted that the current market environment is “risky.” Despite some investors taking precautionary measures like buying protection against a 10% correction in the S&P 500,
such a correction has not occurred in months.
Sosnick pointed out that the “cost of hedging” against a 10% correction has reached its highest level in three years.
George Smith of LPL Financial believes the current momentum in stocks may persist,
as December has historically been a positive month for markets.
Data since 1950 shows that 74% of the time, December delivers the best monthly returns.
However, Smith cautioned against potential short-term weaknesses due to escalating geopolitical threats and a slower-than-expected rate-cut cycle.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan Chase’s market analysis team, led by Andrew Tyler,
expressed tactical optimism through year-end, citing favorable macroeconomic conditions,
earnings growth, and continued Federal Reserve support.
They added, “The current market momentum is worth leveraging, with minimal downside risks through mid-January.”
A More Hazardous Market in the Long Term
Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Group highlighted in a recent note that, paradoxically,
the substantial gains of 2024 have made the market appear riskier for long-term investors, though potentially safer for short-term speculators.
Leuthold’s Major Trend Index (MTI), which accounts for various metrics, remains in a “high neutral” state.
However, all its sub-indicators closed last week with strong bullish readings.
Short-term positions, chasing highs, and automated buying flows characterize a “go-with-the-flow” market environment,
though this could shift entering the new year.
Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts remarked, “This is not an ideal structure;
investors and speculators have been lured into a perpetually rising market.”
Labor Market Under the Microscope
Cali Cox of Ritholtz Wealth Management observed that investors are placing
significant hopes on rising commodity prices but advised caution after November’s remarkable surge.
Cox emphasized that “the bar for success has risen considerably for an economy still grappling with volatility.”
He added, “Despite major shifts in expectations over the past two months,
there’s yet to be any sustained and clear momentum in economic data.
Projections remain critical, with the labor market continuing to be under scrutiny.”
Mark Hackett of Nationwide underscored that consumer resilience will be key to sustaining market gains.
He identified labor market health as one of the most reliable indicators for predicting consumer spending.
Hackett noted, “Markets are currently driven by a mix of technical and fundamental factors,”
adding that “the consistent upward momentum frustrates bearish traders,
creating a virtuous cycle where buying activity feeds further buying.”
He concluded, “While questions linger about sustainability through 2025 amid high valuations and ambitious forecasts,
this momentum is unlikely to waver in the near term.”
Continued Superiority of U.S. Stocks
Investor appetite for U.S. stocks has shown no signs of waning this year.
The S&P 500 has hit multiple record highs, climbing over 25%,
fueled by technological stock gains and a strong preference for American assets.
This momentum continued after Donald Trump’s election, raising hopes for tax cuts and deregulation.
BlackRock Investment Institute believes this trend could persist,
attributing to the U.S.’s ability to leverage “mega forces” that drive corporate earnings.
Favorable growth projections, potential tax cuts, and reduced regulatory burdens support this.
The institute noted that some valuation metrics—such as price-to-earnings ratios and equity risk premiums,
appear strong relative to historical trends but may not tell the whole story.
They compared today’s index to the past to “comparing apples to oranges.”
Furthermore, valuations tend to matter more for long-term returns than short-term performance.
BII also highlighted the transformative potential of artificial intelligence,
which is expected to benefit U.S. stocks more than their global counterparts,
such as European equities. For this reason, BII recommends prioritizing investments in American stocks.
The note concluded, “While risks exist, the market demonstrates resilience.
key factors that could alter this outlook include a rise in long-term bond yields or escalating trade protectionism.”
Wall Street Indices Hit Record Highs on Powell’s Positive Remarks
The Difference Between Opening Price and Closing Price in the Stock Market
They are two fundamental elements in stock trading.
To understand the differences between them,
let’s delve into the definition of each and their importance in market analysis.
The opening price is the first price at which a stock is traded at the beginning of the trading session.
This price is determined by factors such as the accumulated buy and
sell orders before the session starts and market news influencing investor sentiment prior to opening.
Closing Price
The closing price is the last price at which a stock is traded at the end of the trading session.
It serves as an important reference point as it reflects the stock’s final performance for the day.
The Difference
Timing
Opening Price: Set at the beginning of the session.
Closing Price: Recorded at the end of the session.
Influencing Factors
Opening Price: Affected by orders accumulated during the “pre-market” period.
Closing Price: Reflects the trading activity and events of the day.
Significance
Opening Price: Offers an early outlook on market expectations.
Closing Price: Used to analyze trends and assess the stock’s performance.
The Importance of Understanding the Differences
Knowing the difference between the two prices helps traders to:
Make informed decisions when determining entry and exit points.
Analyze historical stock data to evaluate future trends.
Understand the impact of news and announcements on trading activity.
Conclusion
The opening price and closing price are key indicators for any investor seeking to comprehend the dynamics of the stock market.
By understanding their differences and using them effectively,
traders can develop more successful trading strategies.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Rise Amid Market Anticipation:Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API)
reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by approximately 1.2 million barrels during the week ending November 29. Gasoline inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels, while distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, increased by over 1 million.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Rise Amid Market Anticipation
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories
by approximately 1.2 million barrels during the week ending November 29. Gasoline inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels, while distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, increased by over 1 million.
Markets eagerly await official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA),
which is expected to decrease crude oil inventories by about 2 million barrels.
These figures will likely influence crude oil prices during today’s trading sessions.
Slowing Growth in China’s Service Sector Amid New Trade Concerns
Growth in China’s service sector slowed in November as new business activity contracted.
This coincided with concerns over potential trade policies under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump,
which may include additional tariffs on Chinese exports.
A survey conducted by S&P Global revealed that the Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
dropped to 51.5 in November from 52 in October. Despite the decline, the index remained above the 50-point threshold, which indicates growth.
The results align with official data for the non-manufacturing sector, where the PMI fell to 50 earlier. Economist Wang Zhi from Caixin Insight noted that service providers in China expressed
optimism about market improvement due to government support measures, despite concerns about the future trade environment.
The survey also highlighted a decline in new business activity to 51.8 from 52.1
due to weakened external demand. However, the service sector continued
to add jobs for the third consecutive month to meet work pressures,
while business confidence reached its highest level in seven months.
Bank of England Governor Expects Gradual Rate Cuts Next Year
Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, stated in an interview with the Financial Times
that the central bank might implement up to four interest rate cuts next year,
contingent on continuing current economic expectations.
He explained that inflation had decreased faster than anticipated compared to last year,
reflecting significant improvements in the UK’s overall financial performance.
Bailey emphasized that the Bank of England is exploring multiple potential economic
scenarios but remains committed to a gradual rate-cutting strategy to stabilize prices and boost economic recovery.
This approach aims to balance fostering economic growth and maintaining financial stability, which remains a key priority for the bank.
He also noted that future challenges might require more direct bank
Intervention through stronger measures is needed to ensure
the gradual decline in inflation continues, and long-term economic sustainability is maintained.
Previously, Bailey reiterated the Bank of England’s commitment to supporting the British economy,
fostering growth and maintaining financial stability as its primary objective.
According to the data, the U.S. economy added only 146,000 new jobs during the month, which fell short of market expectations of 150,000 jobs. The numbers also contrast with October’s revised data, where the previous figure of 233,000 jobs was adjusted down to 184,000.
ADP data is considered one of the key economic indicators that measure the performance of the U.S. labor market, as it covers all major economic sectors except the government sector. Analysts and economists rely on this data to evaluate the state of the labor market and its responsiveness to the monetary policy changes implemented by the Federal Reserve.
Employment Breakdown by Company Size
Small Businesses: Recorded a decline of 17,000 jobs.
Medium-Sized Businesses: Added 42,000 jobs.
Large Businesses: Achieved significant growth with 120,000 new jobs, reflecting their continued strength in job creation.
Employment Breakdown by Sector
Goods-Producing Sector: Added 6,000 jobs.
Services Sector: Contributed 140,000 jobs, highlighting the significant role of the service industries in supporting the U.S. labor market.
It is worth noting that ADP relies on a partnership with Moody’s Analytics for its monthly reports. These reports serve as an early indicator for forecasts related to the Non-Farm Payrolls report issued by the U.S. Department of Labor. Since it exclusively covers private-sector jobs and excludes the government sector, it is a valuable tool for assessing overall economic activity.
Slower Growth in U.S. Private Sector Employment in November
