Mixed Indicators Dominate the Global Economy

Mixed Indicators Dominate the Global Economy: Recent data shows a slowdown in Chinese retail sales and improved industrial production.
Inflation in the Eurozone remained stable, supporting expectations of a potential rate cut.
In contrast, U.S. bond yields surged following a credit rating downgrade, reflecting mounting concerns over national debt.

 

Contents

Retail Sales in China

Inflation in the Eurozone

U.S. Bond Yields

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales Slowdown 

Official data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Monday morning
showed that retail sales rose by 5.1% year-over-year in April, lower than analysts’ expectations of a 6.0% increase.
However, this reading marks a slight improvement compared to March, which posted 5.9% growth.

In contrast, industrial production grew by 6.1% in April, surpassing forecasts of a 5.7% increase,
though still below February’s 7.7% growth rate.

On the labor front, the unemployment rate in China rose to 5.1% during the same period,
which was better than expected. It remained unchanged at 5.2%, the same level recorded in February.

 

Eurozone Inflation Stability Strengthens Outlook for ECB Rate Cuts

Data from Eurostat released on Monday showed stable inflation levels in the Eurozone for April, aligning with market expectations.
This signals that price trends are continuing at moderate levels,
giving the European Central Bank more flexibility in its upcoming monetary decisions.

According to the data, annual headline inflation stood at 2.7% in April,
the same as in March and in line with analysts’ forecasts. This reflects relative price stability in goods and services.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as energy, food, alcohol,
and tobacco, also held steady at 2.2% year-over-year for the second consecutive month.
This supports the view that underlying inflationary pressures are losing momentum.

These figures support expectations that the ECB could lower interest rates in the year’s second half,
especially if inflation data continues to trend sideways, coinciding with a relative slowdown in economic growth across the bloc.

 


U.S. Bond Yields Rise Following Moody’s Credit Rating Downgrade

U.S. Treasury yields increased noticeably on Monday as markets focused on the country’s growing public debt
after Moody’s downgraded its credit rating late last week.

The yield on two-year bonds, which are most sensitive to monetary policy changes,
rose by 2.1 basis points to 4.004%. Ten-year yields climbed by 10.5 basis points to 4.544%,
while 30-year bond yields jumped 12.6 basis points to 5.023%, marking their highest level since November 2023.

Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating by one notch,
citing concerns over rising debt levels and financial pressures from high interest rates.
The move has sparked investor worries over an expanding
budget deficit amid congressional discussions on new, unfunded tax cuts.

Mixed Indicators Dominate the Global Economy

Japan Rejects Tax Cuts Amid Warnings of A Financial Crisis Worse Than Greece

Japan Rejects Tax Cuts Amid Warnings of A Financial Crisis Worse Than Greece

In a speech that sparked significant political and economic debate,
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba rejected opposition parties’ calls for tax cuts,
stressing that the country’s fiscal situation is “worse than Greece.”
This striking statement reflects the mounting pressure on the public finances of the world’s third-largest economy.

 

Topic

Details

 

 

 

 

Details

During a parliamentary session covered by Bloomberg, Ishiba emphasized that the government is not in a position to finance tax cuts by issuing more bonds, given the rising cost of borrowing.
He insisted that any additional government spending must be managed with extreme caution,
noting that Japan is facing an “extremely difficult financial situation” amid the accumulation of record-level debt.

Data from the International Monetary Fund showed that Japan’s public debt-to-GDP ratio reached 234.9% in 2025—the highest among advanced economies—compared to 142.2% in Greece, a country previously known for its severe eurozone debt crisis.

This comes at a time of growing calls to reduce the consumption tax, especially with the Upper House elections approaching in July.
The opposition hopes to leverage the economic pressure to galvanize voters.
However, Ishiba’s statements highlight the government’s more cautious approach, focusing on fiscal sustainability and avoiding risks related to deficits and sovereign debt.

This escalation in political rhetoric could impact Japanese markets,
as investors closely monitor any signs of changes in fiscal policy—particularly amid concerns over the impact of global interest rate hikes on the cost of financing Japan’s massive debt.

 

 

 

Japan Rejects Tax Cuts Amid Warnings of A Financial Crisis Worse Than Greece

Quick Overview of Key Economic Events and Market Movements

Quick Overview of Key Economic Events and Market Movements: This week brings a series of impactful economic data releases,
Most notably, interest rate decisions and inflation figures from countries like China, Canada, and the UK.
Additionally, significant movements are expected in key indicators such as the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.
This brief highlights the most critical market developments from May 19 to May 23, 2025.

 

Content

Economic Calendar

Nasdaq

USDJPY

Nvidia

Bitcoin

EURUSD

 

 

 

 

Economic Calendar

Monday, May 19, 2025

  • 05:00 – China – Industrial Production (YoY)
  • 05:00 – China – Retail Sales (YoY)

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

  • 07:30 – Australia – Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
  • 07:30 – Australia – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
  • 07:30 – Australia – RBA Interest Rate Statement
  • 15:30 – Canada – Consumer Price Index (MoM)
  • 15:30 – Canada – Core CPI (YoY)
  • 15:30 – Canada – Trimmed CPI (YoY)

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

  • 09:00 – UK – Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

  • 11:30 – UK – Preliminary Manufacturing PMI
  • 11:30 – UK – Preliminary Services PMI
  • 15:30 – US – Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 16:45 – US – Preliminary Manufacturing PMI
  • 16:45 – US – Preliminary Services PMI

Friday, May 23, 2025

  • 09:00 – UK – Retail Sales (MoM)
  • 15:30 – Canada – Core Retail Sales (MoM)
  • 15:30 – Canada – Retail Sales (MoM)

 

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ index saw substantial gains during last week’s trading,
Driven by optimism in the U.S. economy, a decline in recession fears,
growing confidence in growth prospects, and the release of positive economic data.
Most notably, inflation fell to 2.3%, nearing the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
 The index reached 21,427, approaching the historical peak of 22,200,
particularly after fully absorbing the recent downward correction.

 

USDJPY

The USDJPY pair is trading around 145.62,
after declining at the end of last week due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar
amid increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates,
especially following the latest drop in inflation.
 This scenario puts downward pressure on the dollar against most currencies.
 Technically, the pair has rebounded from the secondary resistance zone at 148.20,
supporting a continued decline toward the next support level at 140.00.

 

Nvidia 

Nvidia stock has resumed its upward trend recently, climbing back to $135.
This was supported by announcements of new deals
in Saudi Arabia and the UAE and optimism following a trade truce with China,
which boosted the stock’s performance.
 The upward movement is expected to continue toward $143, then the previous high at $150.

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has stabilized above $103,000, supported by increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies,
along with market optimism about Bitcoin’s future targets.
 The cryptocurrency has already closed above the $100,000 level,
strengthening the probability of continued upward movement toward the historical high of $109,299.
 A bearish scenario would emerge if the price breaks the significant support at $100,000 and closes below it,
which may trigger a correction down to $88,500.

 

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.1161, after starting a corrective downward trend
wave due to euro weakness and a partial recovery of the dollar’s strength.
 The downward movement will continue toward the support zone at 1.0885,
especially after breaking below 1.1260 and closing under it, reinforcing the short-term bearish trend.

 

Quick Overview of Key Economic Events and Market Movements

Global Economy Amid Shifting Government Investments

Global Economy Amid Shifting Government Investments and Corporate Leadership: China Reduces U.S. Bond Holdings While Tesla Strengthens Its Board

In a scene reflecting the divergence in global economic policies, China continues to reduce its exposure to U.S. debt,
while Tesla aims to bolster its leadership structure amid growing scrutiny over Elon Musk’s future.

 

Contents

 

 

 

China

China Continues to Reduce Its U.S. Bond Holdings as the UK Rises to Second Place

Data from the U.S. Treasury Department revealed that China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities in March,
falling behind the United Kingdom, which became the second-largest foreign holder of such bonds for the first time in over 20 years.

According to the figures, the UK’s holdings reached approximately $779.3 billion,
surpassing China’s $765.4 billion after the latter engaged in net sales of $27.6 billion in long-term bonds.
This move reflects China’s ongoing policy of minimizing exposure to U.S. debt amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions.

Despite the decline in China’s holdings, total foreign purchases of U.S. bonds in March saw a record surge for the second consecutive month,
rising by $233.1 billion to reach $9.05 trillion—signaling continued global appetite for U.S. debt instruments,
at least through the end of March.

This development preceded the market disruptions in April,
triggered by a new tariff campaign launched by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2 under the name “Liberation Day.”
The initiative included harsh tariffs on U.S. trading partners, resulting in widespread sell-offs of the dollar, stocks, and Treasury bonds.

Meanwhile, holdings of U.S. Treasuries by Japan, Canada, and Belgium increased during the same period,
with Japan maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder.

 

Tesla

Tesla Appoints Jack Hartung to Its Board and Reconsiders Elon Musk’s Compensation

It announced on Friday the appointment of Jack Hartung, executive at Chipotle,
to its Board of Directors and Audit Committee starting June.
With this appointment, the number of Tesla board members will rise to nine,
in a move that reflects Tesla’s aim to enhance its leadership expertise amid a shifting regulatory and market landscape.

Hartung’s appointment comes at a critical time, as Tesla’s board faces increased scrutiny amid reports of internal discussions regarding the future of CEO Elon Musk. A special committee has also been formed to review Musk’s compensation package,
indicating a potential restructuring of his stock option awards.

Hartung brings a strong track record in financial and operational leadership, having previously served as President and Strategic Director at Chipotle.
His experience in managing finance and supply chains is seen as a valuable asset that aligns with Tesla’s ambitious expansion plans.

On the market front, investors responded positively to the news.
Tesla shares rose by 1.29%, or $4.42, closing at $347.24 on the Nasdaq—reflecting market confidence in strengthened corporate governance within the company.

 

 

 

 

What Is Margin Trading and Is It Profitable?

What Is Margin Trading and Is It Profitable?

In the era of fast-paced trading and digital platforms, investing is no longer reserved for the wealthy.
Among the tools that have changed the rules of the game: margin trading.
But is it a shortcut to profits—or a tempting trap that could lead to painful losses? Let’s uncover the truth together.

 

 

Contents

 

 

 

 

Introduction

Your Imagination Leads You to Profits… But What’s Behind the Curtain?

Imagine having only $1,000, but being able to open trades worth $5,000! That’s what margin trading allows you to do.
Tempting, right? But just like fire can cook food, it can also burn your fingers.

Margin trading is simply borrowing money from your broker to amplify your trades.
If the market moves in your favor, you’re on the path to multiplied profits.
But if it goes the other way, your money could vanish in moments.

 

Is It Profitable

 

The Answer Isn’t Black or White

Yes, some have made fortunes through margin trading.
But others have walked away with nothing—or worse, in debt.

Let’s look at both sides:

 

 Unmissable Opportunities:

  • Enter larger positions than your actual capital allows.
  • Profit from small market moves by leveraging more.
  • Diversify your portfolio and open more trades with less money.

 Relentless Risks:

  • The market shows no mercy to the unprepared.
  • Your losses may exceed your original capital.
  • Minor market movements could trigger forced liquidations or margin calls.

 

Real Stories: Between Dreams and Shocks

  • Sami, 28, entered the crypto market with 1:10 leverage. Within a week, his profits doubled.
    The next week, he lost everything in one hour due to a sudden market drop.
  • Layla, a cautious investor, used margin wisely in stock markets with strict risk management—and achieved steady, consistent growth.

The difference? Sami bet on luck, while Layla bet on planning.

 

Golden Tips

  • Don’t use margin in your first trade.
  • Always set stop-loss orders.
  • Never risk more than 1–2% of your capital on a single trade.
  • Learn first… then trade.

Test Yourself

Is Margin Trading for You?

  • Do you have a clear capital management plan?
  • Can you handle unexpected losses without damaging your financial life?
  • Do you fully understand margin terms and leverage with your broker?

If you answered “yes” to the above, margin trading might be worth exploring… but with extreme caution.

 

Conclusion

Margin trading is a double-edged sword. It can be a powerful tool to accelerate your profits,
but only in the hands of a disciplined trader who knows when to push forward and when to step back.
Are you ready for the big leagues?

 

 

What Is Margin Trading and Is It Profitable?

A New Round of Trade Talks Between Washington and Beijing

A New Round of Trade Talks Between Washington and Beijing: In a new development toward easing trade tensions
between the United States and China,
Top negotiators from both sides held a meeting on Thursday on South Korea’s Jeju Island.
This came just days after an agreement in Switzerland to suspend specific mutual tariffs for 90 days.

 

Content

Trade Talks
Eurozone
India


A New Round of Trade Talks Between Washington and Beijing

In a new development toward easing trade tensions between the United States and China,
top negotiators from both sides held a meeting on Thursday on South Korea’s Jeju Island.
This came just days after an agreement in Switzerland to suspend specific mutual tariffs for 90 days.

According to a South Korean government source, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met
with China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, in what was described
as a continuation of bilateral talks aimed at curbing the escalating trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.

No further details regarding the content or outcomes of the meeting have yet been released.

These talks are viewed as an exploratory step toward laying the groundwork for broader negotiations,
especially amid mounting pressure from the private sectors in both countries,
which have been affected by rising import and export costs due to the trade war.

According to official Chinese data, Chinese shipments to the U.S. fell by 21% year-on-year in April,
while imports of American goods declined by 14% during the same period,
a clear indication of the profound impact of the tariffs.

 

Eurozone Economy Sees Moderate Growth in Q1, Supported by Strong Labor Market

According to preliminary data released by Eurostat on Thursday,
the Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025.
This suggests a continued, albeit modest, recovery despite external challenges, chiefly global trade tensions.

Although the growth rate came in slightly below the initial estimate of 0.4%,
it still represents a mild improvement over the final quarter of 2024,
which saw 0.2% growth. On a year-on-year basis, the GDP of the single currency area remained steady at 1.2%,
reflecting relative stability in overall economic performance.

Meanwhile, labor market data showed improvement,
with employment rising by 0.3% in Q1—the highest quarterly growth rate in a year.
This indicates that job creation remains strong despite the global economic slowdown.

Among the major member states, Spain led the way with 0.6% growth,
followed by Italy at 0.3%,
while Germany — Europe’s largest economy — recorded a more modest 0.2% growth.

 

 

 

 

Trump: India Offers to Eliminate Tariffs on U.S. Goods Amid Escalating Trade Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that India has offered to completely remove tariffs
on American goods to ease trade tensions between the two countries.
New Delhi recently threatened retaliatory tariffs in response to increased U.S. steel and aluminum import duties.

Trump made the remarks during an event with business leaders in Doha, Qatar,
stating that the Indian government “has proposed a deal to eliminate all tariffs on U.S. products.”
a clear indication of both sides’ desire to avoid a full-blown trade war.

In a related note, Trump mentioned he had spoken with Apple CEO Tim Cook
to dissuade him from expanding the company’s production in India.
He emphasized that Apple plans to boost its investments within the United States instead of shifting operations abroad.

India’s Minister of Commerce is expected
to visit the U.S. from May 17 to 20 for a new round of negotiations.
These talks are part of preparations for the first phase of a trade agreement between the two countries.
The agreement was initially agreed upon during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington last February.
The deal is expected to be finalized by fall.

This development comes as the Trump administration is working
to reduce the trade deficit with major partners by renegotiating outdated trade terms and applying
direct pressure to open markets to American exports.
India’s response is a positive sign of the policy’s effectiveness,
potentially boosting market confidence and easing global trade tensions.

 

A New Round of Trade Talks Between Washington and Beijing

Oil Prices Decline Amid Prospects of a Potential Nuclear Deal

Oil Prices Decline Amid Prospects of a Potential Nuclear Deal and Global Demand Slowdown

Dual pressures weigh on oil prices as signs point to a nuclear agreement and anticipated demand stagnation.

 

Contents

 

Oil

Oil prices dropped significantly on Thursday amid growing signs that the United States is close to reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran,
alongside investor reaction to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report,
which pointed to a potential slowdown in global crude demand growth.

Brent crude futures for July delivery fell by 3.7%, or $2.44, to settle at $63.65 per barrel.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery dropped by 3.95%, or $2.49, to $60.66 per barrel.

These declines come as U.S. President Donald Trump stated during his Gulf tour that
the U.S. is “very close” to reaching an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program,
adding that Tehran had “somewhat agreed” to the proposed terms, according to AFP.

On another front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report,
forecasting that global oil demand growth will slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of the year,
compared to 990,000 barrels per day in the first quarter.
The agency attributed the slowdown to ongoing global economic challenges, as well as record-high electric vehicle (EV) sales,
which continue to negatively impact fossil fuel consumption.

 

 

Oil Prices Decline Amid Prospects of a Potential Nuclear Deal

Gold and Oil Prices Decline Amid Improving Geopolitical Relations

Gold and Oil Prices Decline Amid Improving Geopolitical Relations and Diminished Rate Cut Hopes

Gold and oil prices are experiencing sharp fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and fading expectations of a swift U.S. interest rate cut.

 

 

Contents

 

 

 

 

Gold

Declines Amid Weak Demand and Reduced Rate Cut Bets

Gold prices stabilized on Thursday after a sharp drop of over 2% on Wednesday,
as demand for the precious metal as a safe haven weakened and expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve diminished.

Spot gold rose slightly by 0.2% to $3,182.85 per ounce as of 8:04 a.m. in Singapore, remaining near its lowest level in over a month.
During early trading, prices hovered above $3,182 per ounce,
influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields amid optimism that the Fed might delay rate cuts due to improving economic indicators.

Gold typically has an inverse relationship with interest rates, as higher yields reduce its appeal given that it does not generate income.

 

Trade Talks Reduce Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal

Downward pressure on gold prices was further driven by continued progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations.
On Wednesday, China announced the suspension of restrictions on exports of rare earth metals and certain technologies
—moves that were welcomed by markets and seen as signs of easing geopolitical risks.

This diplomatic progress reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and led to a sharp rally in riskier assets.
Nevertheless, gold remains up by more than 20% since the beginning of 2025,
after reaching a peak above $3,500 per ounce in April, driven by fears of inflation, slowing growth,
and potential recession amid prior tariff tensions.

 

 

Oil

Oil Prices Continue to Decline Amid Optimism Over a Nuclear Deal with Iran

WTI crude nears $62 while Brent settles around $66 per barrel

Oil prices extended their losses for a second straight day, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell close to $62 per barrel,
and Brent crude closed near $66, following a report suggesting Iran is willing to abandon its military nuclear ambitions in exchange for lifted U.S. sanctions.

NBC reported, citing senior Iranian advisor Ali Shamkhani,
that Tehran is open to signing an agreement under specific conditions—fueling optimism about the return of Iranian oil to global markets
and contributing to the latest price drop.

 

U.S. Inventory Build Adds Pressure

These developments came after government data revealed the largest weekly build in U.S. crude inventories since March,
ending a four-day rally that saw prices gain nearly 10%.

Despite recent fluctuations, oil remains down approximately 13% year-to-date, amid ongoing signs of an oversupplied market.

 

Gradual Resumption of OPEC+ Supply

Meanwhile, OPEC+ began gradually restoring oil supply last month after halting production since 2022.
However, the group added only 25,000 barrels per day in April, far short of its planned increase of 138,000 barrels per day.
The alliance is expected to review another potential output hike at its next meeting scheduled for June 1.

Separately, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is set to publish its monthly global supply and demand outlook on Thursday from Paris,
a report closely monitored by investors and traders alike.

 

 

 

Gold and Oil Prices Decline Amid Improving Geopolitical Relations

Guide to Quantitative Trading and How It Drives Markets

Guide to Quantitative Trading and How It Drives Markets:
In today’s fast-paced trading world, relying solely on instinct or news is no longer enough.
Many investors and traders now use strategies that rely on data and algorithms to make quick and effective decisions.
This is where quantitative trading comes in—one of the most advanced trends in financial markets.

In this article from Evest, we’ll take you on a journey to understand quantitative trading,
How it works, and why it has become a core part of institutional and individual trading strategies.

 

 

Contents

What is Quantitative Trading

How Does Quantitative Trading Work

What Makes Quantitative Trading Unique

Is Quantitative Trading Right for Everyone

Evest

Conclusion

 

 

 

 

What is Quantitative Trading

Quantitative trading is a trading method that relies on quantitative analysis using mathematical models,
statistics, and algorithms to identify trading opportunities.
Quantitative trading depends on real data and historical market patterns
Rather than making decisions based on emotions or subjective analysis.

 

How Does Quantitative Trading Work?

Quantitative strategies typically follow four key stages:

  1. Data Analysis: Collecting market data such as prices, volumes, indicators, and news.
  2. Model Development: Creating mathematical models that define entry and exit rules.
  3. Backtesting: Testing the model on historical data to evaluate its performance.
  4. Automated Execution: Implementing trades electronically with high speed and precision.

 

What Makes Quantitative Trading Unique?

Emotion-Free Trading: Strategies are based on formulas, not feelings.
High-Speed Execution: Thousands of trades can be executed in fractions of a second.
Precise Risk Management: Position size and risk levels are calculated mathematically.
Backtesting Capabilities: Strategies can be tested before committing real capital.

 

 

Is Quantitative Trading Right for Everyone?

While quantitative trading is often used by hedge funds and large financial institutions,
Its concepts and tools are becoming increasingly accessible to individual traders,
especially with modern platforms like Evest,

which offer advanced technical and statistical analysis tools that empower you to make data-driven

trading decisions without deep programming skills.

With Evest, you can:

  • Use ready-made technical indicators and statistical models
  • Analyze market patterns and identify opportunities with precision.
  • Access live data and enjoy fast trade execution

Although full-scale quantitative trading usually requires:

  • A solid understanding of mathematics and statistics
  • Programming skills (e.g., Python, R)
  • A fast and automated trading environment

Evest gives you a powerful start by offering intelligent analytics and technical tools that guide

You step by step toward quantitative-style trading in a simple and user-friendly format.

 

 

 

How Can Evest Support You in Quantitative Trading?

Evest provides an ideal environment to help traders:

  • Dive deeper into market analysis
  • Access advanced technical tools.
  • Execute trades with speed and accuracy.
  • Build data-driven strategies

Whether a beginner or an experienced trader,
you can use Evest’s quantitative tools to make smarter investment decisions.

 

Conclusion

Quantitative trading is the future of the markets. It’s the perfect approach for those seeking speed,
efficiency and discipline in trading decisions.
Integrating this type of trading into your strategy will become more seamless as technology evolves.

 Don’t let the markets surprise you—let the numbers work for you.
Start your quantitative trading journey with Evest today.

 

 

Guide to Quantitative Trading and How It Drives Markets

Market Volatility Follows a Historic Rally

Market Volatility Follows a Historic Rally: Global financial markets show notable
divergence following a powerful rally led by Wall Street in the aftermath of the April crash.

The surge reflects signs of fatigue and growing concern over overvalued equities,
adding to broader worries about market volatility across regions.

This comes amid waning momentum in both U.S. and Asian markets,

despite continued support from a U.S.-China trade truce, major Gulf region deals, and European agreements.
This phase confirms that market volatility follows even the strongest rallies when fundamentals are questioned.

 

 

Contents

Wall Street

Historic Boeing Deal

Ongoing Caution

Dollar Steady

Rate Cut Expectations

Mixed Market Views

Overbought Signals

Speculators Return

Commodities Performance

 

 

 

 

Wall Street Falters After a Sharp Climb

Following a 22% jump from April lows, the S&P 500 entered a volatile phase as most major sectors declined,
Except for mega-cap tech companies, which continued to climb.
The “Magnificent Seven” index (Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla) rose 1.7%.

The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, boosted by Nvidia, which erased its 2025 losses entirely.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, and the S&P 500 increased 0.1%.

In Asia, stocks fell for the first time in five sessions.
Indices in Japan and Australia, along with U.S. futures, declined.
Mainland China and Hong Kong saw slight drops amid fears that recent gains might be overextended.

 

Historic Boeing Deal Lifts Stock

In parallel, Boeing shares soared after signing the largest deal in its history with Qatar Airways
to purchase long-range aircraft during President Donald Trump’s visit to Doha—a bright spot on an otherwise subdued trading day.

 

Caution Persists Despite Trade Truce

The trade truce between the U.S. and China, agreements with the UK, and notable Gulf region deals
helped ease some investor concerns.
China also suspended restrictions on rare earth exports and other military-use tech,
following a temporary 90-day tariff reduction agreement with the U.S.

Still, Mark Hackett of Nationwide warned that the market has “shifted rapidly from oversold to overbought,”
which may hinder further gains without apparent economic acceleration.

 

Bond Yields Rise, Dollar Holds Steady

U.S. bond markets saw sell-offs on Wednesday,
pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.53% (up seven basis points)—its highest in about a month.
2-year yields also hit their highest level since March.

Bloomberg reported that the U.S. does not plan to include monetary policy pledges in trade agreements,
helping the dollar trim losses.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index remained essentially unchanged.

 

Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back

TD Securities joined other Wall Street banks in predicting a delay in Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Swap contracts are no longer priced in two-quarter-point cuts this year.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed,
emphasized that policymakers shouldn’t react to daily market swings, citing stable economic data.
Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that tariffs and associated uncertainty could slow growth and stoke inflation,
but reaffirmed the Fed’s readiness to respond.

Krishna Guha of Evercore noted that Jefferson’s latest remarks leaned more dovish than previous hawkish tones,
signaling ongoing caution even amid U.S.-China easing.

 

 

 

 

Mixed Market Views

Analysts at Goldman Sachs, led by Peter Oppenheimer, described the rally as “too fast,”
comparing it to “event-driven bear market behavior,”
and warned that upside potential remains limited if weak economic data resurfaces.

Conversely, Rick Gardner of RGA Investments remained optimistic,
calling the tech-led rebound a “structural shift” after months of lackluster performance.
He expects the rally to continue, driven by AI optimism and reduced trade tensions.

 

Overbought Indicators and Risk of Correction

Matt Maley from Miller Tabak flagged overbought conditions, with the 7-day RSI at its highest since July
and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index nearing “Extreme Greed.” Still,
Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler views moderate pullbacks as buying opportunities,
especially in high-relative-strength sectors.

 

Speculators Return—Betting on Laggards

In a bold move, trading desks at Citigroup and JPMorganChase began targeting 2025’s biggest losers,
like small caps, tech equipment, and homebuilders—for short-term gains.

Stuart Kaiser from Citi also expressed a preference for weaker-balance-sheet stocks.
With U.S. benchmarks erasing year-to-date losses, investors who missed the earlier
rally are now hunting for entry points before new trade tensions emerge.

Daniel Skelly from Morgan Stanley urged buying dips rather than chasing rallies.
At the same time, David Lefkowitz of UBS Global Wealth Management maintained a neutral but optimistic stance,
expecting the bull market to extend into next year despite potential soft economic data acting as a modest headwind.

 

Gold Rebounds, Oil Slips

Gold rebounded after a 2.3% drop to a one-month low in the previous session.
Meanwhile, oil prices fell for the second day following a government
report showing the largest crude inventory build in two months.

 

Market Volatility Follows a Historic Rally