Dollar Posts Weekly Rebound Fueled by Inflation Fears The dollar surged this week amid growing inflation concerns triggered by renewed U.S. trade tensions.
The U.S. dollar recorded its strongest weekly performance since February,
following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariff plans,
which raised market fears of accelerating inflation and declining risk appetite.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.73%, regaining momentum after two consecutive weeks of decline.
Major currencies such as the Japanese yen and the British pound were among the weakest performers,
further boosting the short-term appeal of the greenback.
This rebound comes despite ongoing bets on a medium-term decline in the dollar,
driven by political uncertainty and rising trade policy risks.
Outlook
Some analysts believe markets may be overestimating the Federal Reserve’s willingness to intervene against inflation.
Meanwhile, recent speculative positioning still indicates a long-term bearish outlook for the dollar,
especially amid ongoing fiscal instability and a widening U.S. budget deficit.
Dollar Posts Weekly Rebound Fueled by Inflation Fears
TSMC Beats Expectations with Record Quarterly Revenue Amid AI Boom
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, reported strong quarterly revenues that exceeded expectations, fueled by growing demand for its chips amid the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence technologies.
Revenue for the second quarter of this year rose by 38.6%, reaching NT$933.8 billion (approximately US$31.9 billion),
up from NT$673.51 billion in the same period last year. These results surpassed analysts’ average forecast of NT$927.8 billion.
The revenue also exceeded the company’s target range announced in April, which stood between US$28.4 billion and US$29.2 billion,
reflecting performance stronger than previous estimates.
TSMC, whose major clients include NVIDIA, is expected to release its full Q2 financial report on July 17,
along with its forecasts for the third quarter and the full fiscal year.
USA
U.S. Treasury Sells 10-Year Bonds at 4.362% Amid Inflation Data Anticipation
The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the results of its 10-year bond auction,
selling $39 billion in bonds at a high yield of 4.362%, the highest accepted yield among winning bids in the auction.
This new issuance will mature on May 15, 2035, priced at $99.101876 per $100 face value,
with a 4.25% annual coupon rate.
The bid-to-cover ratio—a measure of demand—stood at 2.61x, indicating solid, though not exceptional, investor interest.
The high yield serves as a key benchmark for the U.S. government’s borrowing cost and reflects market expectations regarding future inflation and Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Notably, 10-year bond yields are a crucial reference for determining interest rates across the U.S. and global economy,
affecting corporate financing, mortgage loan rates, and other credit instruments.
This auction comes as markets await pivotal U.S. economic data, particularly concerning labor and inflation,
which could directly influence the Fed’s interest rate decisions for the rest of the year.
Trump
Trump Imposes 50% Tariff on Brazilian Imports Over Bolsonaro Trial and Trade Relations
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new 50% tariff on imports from Brazil,
describing it as a direct response to what he called a “very unfair trade relationship” between the two countries and a political punishment linked to the ongoing trial of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
The move marks a major escalation from the previous 10% tariff imposed by the U.S. in April.
In an official letter addressed to current Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva,
Trump framed the decision as part of a broader campaign of targeted tariffs sent to leaders of various countries,
imposing stiff duties on their exports to the U.S.
What stands out in this message is its unusually tough stance, directly linking U.S. trade policy to the domestic legal affairs of a foreign nation—in this case, the judicial proceedings against Bolsonaro.
The move highlights Trump’s willingness to use tariffs as both political and economic leverage,
potentially increasing diplomatic tensions between Washington and Brasília in the coming period.
Oil Prices Stabilize Near $70 Per Barrel Amid Escalating Trade Tensions and Tariffs
Oil prices stabilized near $70 per barrel amid growing trade tensions and a significant increase in U.S. crude inventories,
adding to uncertainty in global markets.
Market Assessment of Rising U.S. Inventories and Trade Policy Uncertainty Global oil prices remained stable during the week, with Brent crude hovering near $70 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled around $68. This came as global trade tensions escalated and U.S. crude stockpiles recorded a sharp increase.
According to official U.S. data, inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels last week — the largest weekly increase since January. Storage levels also climbed in Cushing, the key U.S. delivery hub, sparking concerns among investors about weakening demand or an oversupplied market.
Tariffs
Tariffs Threaten Global Markets and the Energy and Metals Sectors Markets continue to closely watch U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. Most recently, he declared a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1. This measure is expected to directly affect manufacturers of cars, homes, and household appliances that rely on this essential industrial metal.
The U.S. administration’s actions triggered strong reactions in global markets, especially after targeting countries like Brazil with elevated tariffs, in addition to threats of sector-specific tariffs on imports from other nations. These measures have amplified trade uncertainty, prompting some producers to accelerate their shipments to the U.S. before the new tariffs take effect.
OPEC
Geopolitical Concerns and Demand Forecasts Amid OPEC+ Production Plans Despite the ongoing tensions, oil prices have edged slightly higher this week,
supported by expectations of strong summer demand.
This comes as OPEC+ announced a surprise production increase starting in August,
betting that peak summer consumption will help absorb the extra supply.
However, fears are growing that an oversupply could develop later in the year as the market exits the summer peak.
On the geopolitical front, traders are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East after Iran-backed Houthis ramped up attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, resulting in the sinking of two ships and the deaths of several sailors.
These attacks follow recent clashes between Israel and Iran, which have paused under a fragile ceasefire.
Oil Prices Stabilize Near $70 Per Barrel Amid Escalating Trade Tensions and Tariffs
Fed Minutes: Rate Cuts Possible This Year, But With Reservations: The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes
revealed that most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers believe that resuming
Interest rate cuts later this year would be a “likely and appropriate” step.
However, they maintained a cautious approach, preferring to wait for more economic data before making definitive decisions.
According to the minutes released on Wednesday, this inclination toward monetary
easing stems from members’ belief that the inflationary impact of recent tariffs will be temporary and limited.
It therefore does not warrant an immediate policy change.
Despite this leaning, all committee members unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate
within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, opting for patience as they closely assess economic developments.
Opinions among members varied regarding the timing of any potential rate cuts.
Two participants supported a possible reduction as early as the July meeting,
while others felt that no rate cuts would be appropriate during 2025.
Nevertheless, the minutes affirmed the committee’s consensus that future decisions will be data-dependent,
emphasizing the Fed’s readiness to adjust its policy stance if risks emerge
that threaten its goals of price stability and sustainable growth.
The meeting discussions also pointed to continued strength in U.S. economic activity, supported by robust growth,
low unemployment and a resilient labor market, although inflation remains above the target level.
Some policymakers noted that the current interest rate may not be far from the “neutral rate.”
The level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.
This suggests that the scope for rate cuts could be limited unless significant changes occur in the current economic conditions.
Fed Minutes: Rate Cuts Possible This Year, But With Reservations
U.S. Markets Struggle Between Tariff Pressure and Tech Rally: U.S. markets saw mixed performance this week,
caught between sharp political rhetoric and controversial trade policies led by former President Donald Trump,
and a strong rally in tech stocks, most notably Nvidia, which briefly crossed a $4 trillion market capitalization.
Trade tensions resurfaced after Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1,
alongside a new wave of duties targeting several countries.
These included 50% tariffs on Brazil, 30% on Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka, 25% on Brunei and Moldova,
and 20% on the Philippines.
Trump linked the Brazil decision to how former President Jair Bolsonaro was treated,
calling for charges against him to be dropped. In response,
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vowed to retaliate under a “reciprocal treatment law.”
Copper futures surged on the news, with London Metal Exchange contracts rising 0.4% to $9,664.50 per ton,
and COMEX copper gaining around 3%.
Meanwhile, Brazilian assets declined, and the Brazilian real fell sharply,
and emerging markets turned cautious.
The S&P 500 futures and U.S. dollar index dropped 0.1%,
extending the “sell U.S. assets” trend that has pulled the dollar down 8.7% year-to-date.
Carol Kong, FX strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia,
said the post-tariff dollar drop signals that “the U.S. asset sell-off narrative remains strong.”
Wall Street Shrugs Off Concerns, Nears Record Highs
Wall Street showed notable resilience despite trade tensions, with the S&P 500 nearing its record highs.
The large-cap index rose 1.1%, bolstered by Nvidia’s performance,
whose stock has climbed more than 1,000% since the beginning of 2023
and now accounts for approximately 7.5% of the index’s total weight.
Nvidia’s gains pushed its annual return above 20%.
According to Bespoke Investment Group,
companies surpassing trillion-dollar milestones historically continue to climb.
Risk appetite surged elsewhere, with Bitcoin surpassing the $112,000 mark for the first time.
CNN’s “Fear & Greed” index categorized market sentiment as “extreme greed,” highlighting bullish momentum.
Global Copper Shipments Accelerate
In response to looming tariffs, global producers rushed to ship copper
to destinations such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico to speed up delivery.
Simultaneously, Japanese government bonds drew investor focus,
with a major 20-year bond auction approaching amid rising yields and election-related fiscal concerns.
Treasuries Rebound After Selloff
Following five consecutive sessions of selling, U.S. Treasury bonds saw a rebound.
Yields on the 10-year notes fell by six basis points to 4.34%.
A successful $39 billion auction delivered a yield of 4.362%
, slightly below expectations, signaling strong demand.
A 30-year bond offering worth $22 billion is expected soon.
Fed Divided on Inflation Risks from Tariffs
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 FOMC meeting revealed a stark division over the inflationary impact of tariffs.
Some officials expected a one-time price bump with limited long-term effects,
While most warned of potentially lasting inflationary pressure.
Although this uncertainty delayed rate cut decisions, Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management emphasized
that bullish market sentiment remains intact, citing confidence in economic strength and earnings stability.
Fast Money Returns Amid Growing Optimism
Short-term investors—often labeled “fast money”—have started reentering U.S. equities after missing the latest rally.
According to a positioning index by BNP Paribas, which tracks hedge funds, commodity advisors,
and volatility-targeting funds, equity allocations are nearing neutral, indicating renewed confidence.
Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler noted that “the trend remains upward despite tariff anxieties.”
Adding that investors are now less reactive to negative news and more focused on technical signals.
Goldman Sachs also raised its U.S. equity forecasts this week, citing the ongoing strength of large-cap stocks.
Anthony Saglimbene of Ameriprise stated that if economic activity stabilizes and earnings hold up,
especially in tech markets, they could continue their upward trajectory through year-end.
Still, he cautioned that “disappointment risks are elevated,
especially given the volume of political headlines emerging from the White House.”
U.S. Markets Struggle Between Tariff Pressure and Tech Rally
New Zealand Reserve Bank Holds Interest Rate at 3.25%, Warns of Global Slowdown and Rising Inflation Risks
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced during its meeting on the morning of Wednesday, July 9, its decision to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.25%. The bank stated that this decision aligns with its baseline scenario and the monetary policy outlook published last May.
In its summary of deliberations and meeting minutes,
the RBNZ noted that the global economy is facing a significant slowdown in the second half of 2025.
This is attributed mainly to the adverse effects of protectionist trade policies, although fiscal expansion in the Eurozone,
the United States, and China may help mitigate some of these challenges.
The bank also highlighted that weakened investor confidence in U.S. dollar-denominated assets has contributed to higher real yields on U.S. bonds and a decline in the dollar, which in turn affected long-term yields in advanced markets.
Domestic Economic Performance
Domestically, New Zealand’s GDP showed strong performance during the quarters ending in December and March,
supported by rising household consumption and business investment.
However, recent indicators for April and May reveal a relative slowdown in growth,
with surplus productive capacity still present in the economy.
Inflation rose to an annual rate of 2.5% in the first quarter of the year,
and is expected to approach the upper limit of the target range in the second and third quarters.
This is driven by increases in food prices and administered prices.
Inflation is then projected to gradually decline toward the end of 2025, reaching the midpoint of the target range by early 2026.
Risks and Policy Outlook
The RBNZ outlined several risks to the economic outlook, most notably continued uncertainty around global tariff policies,
supply chain restructuring, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine — all of which could impact global energy prices.
On the domestic front, the bank expressed concern over persistent uncertainty regarding the pace of economic recovery.
This could lead to more cautious behavior by households and businesses,
potentially dampening overall demand. Nevertheless,
some improvements in investment and consumption indicators were observed in the first quarter.
As for the interest rate decision, the bank considered two options:
cutting the rate by 25 basis points to support economic activity,
or maintaining the current rate amid ongoing uncertainty and inflation risks.
Ultimately, the committee agreed that waiting until the August meeting would provide clearer space to assess developments in the global and domestic economy.
In conclusion, the RBNZ noted that a rate cut may be considered in the future,
provided that inflation eases and domestic economic pressures decline in a way that aligns with the central bank’s monetary policy goals.
New Zealand Reserve Bank Holds Interest Rate at 3.25%
Copper Hits Record High After Trump’s Tariff Threats: Copper prices in the United States surged sharply during Tuesday’s trading session,
closing at their highest level on record.
The spike came after former U.S. President Donald Trump
announced his intention to impose hefty tariffs on copper imports.
Copper Hits Record High Following Trump’s Tariff Threats
Copper futures for September delivery on the COMEX exchange jumped by 13.1%, closing at $5.6855 per pound,
The highest settlement price since data tracking began in January 1968.
This sharp rise followed Trump’s remarks during a cabinet meeting earlier in the day,
in which he revealed plans to implement a 50% tariff on copper imports. However, he did not specify a timeline for its implementation.
Trump Signals Tariffs of Up to 200% on Pharmaceuticals to Boost Domestic Manufacturing
On Tuesday, Donald Trump hinted at new tariffs of up to 200% on imported pharmaceuticals,
aiming to push drug manufacturers to relocate production back to the U.S.
During a cabinet meeting, Trump stated:
“The tariffs will be very high, possibly up to 200%, but they won’t be applied immediately.
We’ll give companies around one to one and a half years to adjust.”
He emphasized that this grace period would allow firms to relocate their manufacturing facilities domestically.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that full details on the proposed tariffs would be released by the end of this month.
Trump stressed the need for the United States to expand its domestic pharmaceutical production
to reduce dependence on foreign nations.
He also noted that many pharmaceutical companies had already begun developing
their U.S. manufacturing operations before his anticipated return to office in January 2025.
These comments come months after Trump first revealed plans to introduce
tariffs on pharmaceutical products, despite having exempted the sector during his first term.
EssilorLuxottica Shares Jump After Meta Acquires Minority Stake Worth €3 Billion
Shares of French company EssilorLuxottica rose significantly on Wednesday following reports that Meta Platforms,
owner of Facebook, had acquired a minority stake to strengthen its presence in the AI-powered wearable devices market.
The stock, listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, surged by 6.65%,
reaching €255.30 as of 1:04 p.m. Mecca time.
According to a Bloomberg report citing informed sources, Meta purchased a stake in EssilorLuxottica valued at around €3 billion (approximately $3.51 billion at current market prices).
The report also indicated that Meta is considering further investments that could increase its stake to around 5%.
The partnership between the two companies dates back to 2019,
resulting in the launch of two generations of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses.
While the first edition, released in 2021, did not meet expectations, the second generation,
launched in 2023, received a significantly warmer reception,
reflecting growing consumer interest in smart wearable devices.
Copper Hits Record High After Trump’s Tariff Threats
What Is the Difference Between Forex and Options – and Which Is Better?
In the world of online trading, both the Forex (foreign exchange) market and options trading stand out as popular choices among traders worldwide. While both depend on price movements to generate profit, there are key differences between them in terms of mechanisms, risk levels, and investment opportunities. In this article, we’ll explore the main differences between Forex and options to help you choose the best fit based on your goals and experience level.
Forex, short for “Foreign Exchange,” is the market for trading currencies. It is one of the largest financial markets in the world in terms of daily trading volume. In this market, currencies are bought and sold in pairs like EUR/USD or USD/JPY, and traders aim to profit from price differences between the bid and ask.
Advantages of Forex:
High liquidity and 24-hour trading five days a week.
Leverage availability.
Direct trading via electronic platforms with no ownership of the underlying asset.
Options
What Are Options?
Options trading is a type of financial derivative that gives the trader the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an underlying asset (such as stocks, currencies, or indices) at a specific price within a defined time frame. There are two main types:
Call Options: Give the right to buy.
Put Options: Give the right to sell.
Advantages of Options:
Effective hedging tools against market volatility.
High-profit potential with limited risk (only the contract value).
Multiple advanced strategies suited for experienced traders.
Comparison
Differences Between Forex and Options
Feature
Forex
Options
Traded Asset
Currency pairs
Derivatives on various underlying assets
Contract Obligation
Immediate buy/sell commitment
Non-obligatory option
Risk Level
High (due to leverage)
Limited (to contract value)
Liquidity
Very high
Relatively lower
Required Experience
Moderate to advanced
Advanced, especially for complex strategies
Timing
24/5 market
Depends on underlying asset’s trading hours
Which Is Better?
There is no one-size-fits-all answer. The better choice depends on your goals, risk tolerance, and trading experience:
If you’re a beginner looking for a fast-moving market with high liquidity, Forex might be more suitable.
If you’re experienced in hedging strategies and want to limit risk while aiming for complex returns, options could be better.
Conclusion
Whether you choose Forex or options, it’s crucial to understand how the market works, manage your capital wisely, and practice through demo accounts before trading real money. Remember, both markets offer opportunities and risks — success requires knowledge, patience, and discipline.
What Is the Difference Between Forex and Options – and Which Is Better?
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets by maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 3.85%,
defying widespread expectations of a 25-basis-point cut,
despite the continued slowdown in inflation to its lowest levels since 2024.
RBA Surprises Markets with Rate Hold Despite Easing Inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its key interest rate at 3.85% during its Tuesday meeting,
surprising analysts who had forecast a 25 basis point cut.
The decision underscores the bank’s cautious approach, as it seeks more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2.5% target.
In its statement, the RBA explained that additional time was needed to evaluate whether inflation is genuinely on a consistent downward trajectory.
The move follows May inflation data showing a deceleration in consumer prices to 2.1%—the lowest since October 2024. In Q1, inflation stood at 2.4%, the weakest pace in four years.
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed disappointment on platform “X,”
stating that the decision ran counter to market consensus and most economists’ views.
Nonetheless, he acknowledged progress in containing inflation and praised the government’s efforts to ease the cost-of-living burden on citizens.
Trump
Hints at Tariff Revisions While Keeping Talks Open
Former President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of revising tariffs imposed on several countries as part of broader trade pressure efforts.
The remarks come ahead of the August 1 deadline, when new tariff rates are set to take effect unless bilateral deals are reached.
According to sources, Trump’s administration has already sent notices to over ten nations—including Japan and South Korea—outlining tariff rates ranging from 25% to 40%, effective from August unless new trade arrangements are finalized. Japan is reportedly facing a 25% rate,
while Taiwan could face an initial rate of 32%.
Despite the firm deadline, Trump indicated his willingness to negotiate, stating: “If they reach out and show interest in a different deal,
we are ready to listen.” Some of the tariffs had previously been suspended for 90 days to allow more time for talks.
In a related development, Trump renewed his warning of imposing an additional 10% tariff on countries he described as “supporting anti-American policies,” referring to nations aligned with the BRICS bloc,
which continues to expand its global economic influence.
Tesla
Shares Plunge After Musk Announces New Political Party
Tesla stock fell sharply on Monday following CEO Elon Musk’s announcement of a new political party in the United States—“America Party”—a move that raised investor concerns over his focus and leadership at the company.
Tesla shares closed down 6.8% at $293.94, after touching an intraday low of $288.77,
wiping out approximately $68 billion in market value in a single session.
The drop followed a volatile performance earlier this year, with Tesla gaining 22% in Q2 after plunging 35% in Q1.
However, the stock remains down 28% year-to-date, even as other major tech firms post strong gains.
Musk announced the new party via his platform “X” after conducting a public poll,
framing the move as a response to his growing opposition to recent tax and spending legislation passed under Trump’s administration.
Oil Prices Drop Amid Supply Concerns and Tariff Tensions it prices fell sharply throughout the week, with Brent crude nearing $69 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropping below $68,
marking the third decline in four trading days. This downturn comes as investors grow increasingly concerned about the impact of President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats against key trading partners, casting doubt over future global demand.
Adding to the pressure, the OPEC+ alliance announced plans to increase oil output starting in August — a move that exceeded market expectations despite renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East and intensified attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea.
Still, OPEC+ officials expressed confidence in the market’s ability to absorb the additional barrels,
citing strong seasonal demand during the summer.
Reflecting this optimism, Saudi Arabia raised its official selling prices for crude bound for Asia.
Iron
Iron Ore Volatile Amid Tariff Pressure and Falling Chinese Inventories it prices fluctuated sharply, with futures reaching as high as $95.75 per ton before retreating following Trump’s remarks,
which opened the door to new negotiations.
The official implementation of the tariffs has been postponed until early August.
Markets initially reacted negatively to the announcement, fearing a slowdown in global economic growth.
While China has pledged to phase out obsolete production capacity, prices remain under pressure,
especially after reports showed that steel inventories at major Chinese mills fell by around 5% in June.
Meanwhile, yuan-denominated contracts on the Dalian exchange slipped,
and prices for rebar and hot-rolled coil declined in Shanghai — mirroring weak performance across most base metals on the London Metal Exchange.
Gold
Gold Holds Steady as Geopolitical and Tariff Fears Mount it maintained its gains, trading near $3,337 per ounce after a prior session dip of 1.2%. The yellow metal found support as investors sought safe-haven assets,
responding to growing concerns over a U.S.-led tariff escalation and rising tensions in the Middle East.
The U.S. administration had informed Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea of potential tariffs
of up to 25% on their exports — a move that bolstered the dollar and stabilized gold prices,
even as higher dollar strength increased the cost of gold for non-U.S. buyers.
Markets now see the tariff delay until August 1 as an opportunity for negotiation,
but also expect heightened volatility in the weeks ahead.
OPEC
Outlook: Market Stability Hinges on Trump and OPEC+ Moves Current developments point to a fragile and uncertain market environment,
shaped by a complex intersection of U.S. trade policy and OPEC+ output strategies alongside geopolitical disruptions.
Investors are closely watching for further comments from President Trump and
signals from OPEC+ regarding any extensions or changes to their production agreements.
Ultimately, market stability will depend on how trade talks unfold and
how supply-demand dynamics evolve — in an atmosphere marked by caution, risk, and constant adjustment.
Trump’s Tariffs Unsettle Energy and Metals Markets
