Gold Gains and Oil Falls Amid Market Dynamics

Gold Gains and Oil Falls Amid Market Dynamics

Global commodity markets are witnessing a noticeable divergence,

with gold prices continuing to climb while oil prices decline due to a mix of economic and political factors.

 

Content

 

 

Gold

Continues to Rise, Supported by Expectations of a Larger Rate Cut

Gold prices rose for the third consecutive day, with the precious metal trading near $3,370 per ounce,

supported by a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may opt for a larger interest rate cut.

The rally followed comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent,

who urged the central bank to reduce borrowing costs by about 1.5 percentage points from current levels — a move that could stimulate economic activity and push investors toward non–interest-bearing assets like gold.

The shift in market expectations is clear compared to last month,

when the odds of a September rate cut were below 50%. Now, there is near consensus on a 0.25% cut next month,

with some investors betting on an even larger move — a sentiment that has further bolstered gold prices.

Since the start of the year, gold has gained more than 28%, with most of the gains occurring in the first four months.

The rally has been fueled by escalating geopolitical and trade tensions, along with increased central bank purchases,

reinforcing gold’s status as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty.

In early Singapore trading, spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,372.03 per ounce, while Bloomberg’s spot dollar index fell 0.1%.

Silver, platinum, and palladium also posted slight gains, signaling continued positive momentum in precious metals markets.

Markets remain watchful over whether U.S. imports of gold bullion will be subject to tariffs, following recent confusion that widened the spread between New York futures and London spot prices. U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that he would not impose tariffs helped ease concerns, but the lack of official details has kept traders cautious.

 

Oil

Drops to Two-Month Lows on Oversupply Concerns

In contrast, oil prices have fallen close to their lowest levels in two months,

after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the crude market could face a record supply surplus next year.

Brent crude hovered around $66 per barrel after closing yesterday at its lowest level since June 5,

while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $63 per barrel.

The IEA’s monthly report indicated that global inventories are expected to grow at a faster pace than during the pandemic year of 2020,

reflecting oversupply driven by higher production outside the OPEC+ alliance — particularly in the United States and Latin American countries.

Investors are also closely watching the upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin,

which could result in changes to U.S. sanctions on Russia, an OPEC+ member. In strong remarks,

Trump warned of “severe consequences” if a ceasefire is not agreed, adding a geopolitical layer to oil price movements.

Since the start of the year, oil has fallen more than 10%, particularly after OPEC+ ended the voluntary production cuts that began in 2023. Recent U.S. government data showed crude inventories rose by about 3 million barrels last week to the highest level in two months, along with increases in distillate stocks and supplies at the main storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma.

The prompt Brent spread — the difference between the nearest two contracts — narrowed to 49 cents per barrel from about $1 a month ago,

signaling that near-term supply tightness in the global market is easing.

 

 

Gold Gains and Oil Falls Amid Market Dynamics

Global Markets Between Asia’s Decline and Wall Street’s Rise

Global Markets Between Asia’s Decline and Wall Street’s Rise: Global markets experienced a mixed performance,

Asian equities are retreating after a three-day winning streak.

At the same time, Wall Street indices reached new record highs on growing expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut.

 

Contents

Asian Equities

Wall Street

Fed Policy Outlook
Bank of Japan

Trump’s Statements

Market Reactions

Stock Gains

Sentiment and Upcoming Data

 

 

 

Asian Equities and Yen Strength Pressure

Asian markets fell as Japanese stocks dropped 1.4% under a stronger yen, pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.2%.

The yen rose 0.5% against the dollar after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized

the Bank of Japan for lagging in addressing inflation, suggesting an imminent rate hike.

Meanwhile, the dollar weakened against all G10 currencies after Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy.

In China, Shanghai stocks extended their gains for a third straight session,

while Bitcoin hit a new record high, and U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively stable.

 

Wall Street Bets on Rate Cuts

Across the globe, U.S. inflation data in line with expectations reinforced investor bets that the Fed will soon cut rates,

With traders pricing in a 25 basis-point cut in September, some wager on a larger move.

Bessent’s remarks further fueled these expectations:

“We may enter a series of rate cuts, starting with 50 basis points in September.”

Around 420 companies in the S&P 500 posted gains, with Apple and Amazon shares jumping,

the Russell 2000 small-cap index climbing 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 1%.

In after-hours trading, Cisco Systems issued lukewarm guidance,

while two-year Treasury yields fell 5 basis points to 3.68%.

 

Fed Policy Outlook

Last month, the Fed, led by Jerome Powell, maintained its target range for interest rates at 4.25%–4.5%.

Bessent noted that the Fed might have already cut rates

had it known the revised labor market data released after the meeting.

He also suggested that the benchmark rate should be about 1.5 percentage points lower than its current level.

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi of UBS Global Wealth Management expects the Fed to cut rates

by 25 basis points at each meeting through January 2026, totaling 100 basis points.

Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets said markets could price in a 50 basis-point cut in the coming weeks,

Although his base case is lower.

 

 

 

 

Bank of Japan Policy and Currency Impact

Bessent stated that the Bank of Japan will raise rates to curb inflation,

supported by a Bloomberg survey showing 42% of economists expecting a hike in October,

and one-third in January. Garfield Reynolds of Markets Live wrote that currency markets

were reminded that the yen can benefit from Washington’s dollar-weakening stance.

 

Trump’s Statements and Political Developments

President Donald Trump criticized the Fed for not cutting rates and revealed that he would announce

the next Fed Chair’s name ahead of schedule,

narrowing the list to three or four candidates to succeed Powell.

Geopolitical tensions also remained high as Trump warned of

“very severe consequences” if Vladimir Putin refused to agree to a ceasefire this week.

 

Market Reactions to Inflation Data

Sam Stovall of CFRA said that CPI data, which was better than expected,

put markets in full anticipation of a rate cut, projecting 25 basis-point reductions in September and December,

with a pause in October.

Rick Rieder of BlackRock viewed the inflation report as better than feared,

expecting a September cut, possibly by 50 basis points if justified by long-term

inflation expectations and productivity gains.

 

Stock Gains and Tariff Concerns Easing

Rich Mullen of Palace Capital Advisors noted that stocks benefit from reduced tariff concerns,

strong earnings, and higher chances of a rate cut.

However, he cautioned that most of this year’s gains have already occurred and tariff-driven inflation spikes remain risky.

 

Sentiment and Upcoming Data

Mark Hackett of Nationwide believes the market’s easiest path is upward,

especially after the S&P 500 broke its recent trading range, boosting retail investor confidence in “buy-the-dip” strategies.

July data showed U.S. core inflation accelerating, but tariff-exposed goods prices did not rise as much as feared.

The Producer Price Index report due Thursday will provide further insight into categories affecting the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge,

alongside retail sales and consumer confidence data on Friday.

Fawad Razaqzada of City Index said companies are absorbing tariff costs

In profit margins, the Fed can act without triggering inflationary risks.

 

 

Global Markets Between Asia’s Decline and Wall Street’s Rise

Global Stocks Rise on Optimism Over Rate Cuts and Steady Gold

Global Stocks Rise on Optimism Over Rate Cuts and Steady Gold: Amid a wave of optimism sweeping global financial markets,

major stock indices posted notable gains,

driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and stability in gold prices.

Japan’s Nikkei index reached an unprecedented record high,

while European markets continued to climb, supported by falling bond yields and stable inflation rates.

At the same time, gold prices held steady as investors awaited an upcoming international meeting,

alongside U.S. economic data that strengthened bets on an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

 

Content

Global Markets

Commodities

 

 

 

Global Markets

Global markets were positive on Wednesday as Japan’s Nikkei index

broke above the 43,000-point mark for the first time in its history,

buoyed by substantial gains on Wall Street during Tuesday’s session.

This pushed the index to extend its winning streak for a sixth consecutive session,

rising 1.4% to 3,309.62 points. The broader Topix index gained 1% to an all-time high of 3,097.94 points.

Stock indices opened higher in Europe, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.4% to 550 points,

supported by a decline in government bond yields in Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

The German DAX climbed 0.5%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.25%.

This came as investors evaluated economic data showing

Germany’s annual inflation rate remained at 2% for the second month.

 

 

 

 

Commodities

December gold futures were steady at $3,399.50 per ounce in the precious metals market,

while spot gold increased 0.1% to $3,351.07. Investors are awaiting an upcoming meeting

between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska

this Friday to discuss possible solutions to end the war in Ukraine.

Silver futures rose 0.65%, platinum fell 0.15%, and palladium gained by the same margin.

These moves in global markets follow U.S. inflation data showing that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in July,

with the annual rate holding steady at 2.7%.

This has bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may indeed move to cut interest rates next month,

boosting risk appetite in global equity markets.

 

Global Stocks Rise on Optimism Over Rate Cuts and Steady Gold

What Are the Trading Hours for U.S. SPX Contracts?

What Are the Trading Hours for U.S. SPX Contracts?

SPX contracts are derivative instruments linked to the U.S. S&P 500 index,

one of the world’s most important indices, which includes the 500 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization.

These contracts—commonly known as SPX Options or SPX Futures—are widely used by investors and traders for hedging or speculating on market movements.
 However, to make the most of these instruments, it’s essential to know the official trading hours as well as the pre-market and after-hours sessions,

since these can affect liquidity and price movements.

 

Topic

Official Trading Hours for SPX Contracts

Why Knowing Trading Hours Matters

Understanding SPX Price Movements and the Impact of Timing

Tips for SPX Traders

 

 

 

 

Official Trading Hours for SPX Contracts

SPX contracts are traded on the CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) for options contracts,

or the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) for index futures contracts.

  1. SPX Options (CBOE):
  • Days: Monday to Friday (excluding U.S. holidays). 
  • Regular trading hours: 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. New York time (EST). 
  • Pre-market trading: Not available for standard SPX Options. 
  1. E-mini S&P 500 Futures (CME):
  • From: Sunday evening to Friday evening (five days a week). 
  • Trading hours: 6:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. New York time (EST), with a short daily break from 5:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. 
  • These futures trade almost continuously, allowing traders to react to global news outside U.S. market hours. 

Why Knowing Trading Hours Matters

Liquidity:
 During regular U.S. market hours, trading volumes are higher, meaning tighter spreads.

Volatility:
 The U.S. market’s opening and closing periods often see higher volatility due to order flows.

Trading strategies:
 Some traders prefer the early hours to capitalize on sharp moves, while others choose the calmer midday session.

 

 

Understanding SPX Price Movements and the Impact of Timing

Some traders think SPX contracts move evenly throughout the day, but in reality, the market goes through different phases of activity during a session:

  • Opening (9:30 – 10:30 a.m. EST):
     The most active period, as institutional investors and hedge funds execute orders based on pre-market news or global market closes. This hour often sets the tone for the day. 
  • Midday (11:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. EST):
     Liquidity typically declines, resulting in slower and calmer price action. Professional traders often use this period to reassess strategies or adjust open positions. 
  • Closing (3:00 – 4:00 p.m. EST):
     Volatility rises again as portfolio managers rebalance their positions. Quick trading opportunities may arise, but they require strict risk management. 

Pro tip: If you’re a beginner trader, focus on high-liquidity periods—especially the opening—while sticking to a clear trading plan and setting stop-loss levels before entering any trade.

 

 

Tips for SPX Traders

  • Make sure your clock is set to New York time or your local equivalent. 
  • Follow the U.S. economic calendar, as data like interest rate decisions or jobs reports can have a strong impact on SPX movements. 
  • If you use complex options strategies, execute them during high-liquidity periods to reduce entry and exit costs. 

In short, SPX trading hours in the U.S. vary depending on whether you’re trading options or futures.

Understanding these schedules gives you a competitive edge and helps you make well-informed decisions in a dynamic market environment.

 

 

 

 

 

What Are the Trading Hours for U.S. SPX Contracts?

Historic Surge in U.S. Tariff Revenues Despite Deficit

Historic Surge in U.S. Tariff Revenues Despite Deficit
 U.S. tariff revenues hit a record high in July amid the ongoing expansion of the fiscal deficit.

 

Content
 United States
 China
 Australia

 

United States

U.S. Tariff Revenues Jump to Record High Amid Worsening Fiscal Deficit
 Data from the U.S. Treasury Department released on Tuesday showed that tariff revenues rose in July to $28 billion,

marking a massive 273% annual increase.

The monthly budget deficit stood at $291 billion, up 10% from the same month last year after accounting for timing adjustments.
 With the fiscal year ending in September, the United States is on track to post another massive annual deficit.

The deficit for the first ten months of the fiscal year reached $1.63 trillion,

down only 4% from the previous year after adjusting data and excluding the impact of deferred tax payments.
 According to the Treasury, tariff revenues since the start of the fiscal year have totaled $142 billion.

The surge in June contributed to a rare monthly surplus of $27 billion — the first for June since 2015.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects tariff revenues to exceed $300 billion in 2025, noting they could surpass 1% of GDP.

 

 

China

Global EV Sales See Slowest Growth Since January as Chinese Market Cools
 Data from market research firm “Rho Motion” showed that global electric vehicle sales rose 21% year-on-year in July,

marking the slowest growth rate since January, compared to a 25% increase in June.

This slowdown is driven largely by a notable deceleration in China, the world’s largest auto market.
 The data revealed that China, which accounts for more than half of global EV sales, saw growth slow to 12% in July,

down from an average monthly rate of 36% in the first half of the year.

The slowdown was attributed to the phasing out of some government subsidies for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, set to end by 2025.
 BYD, the world’s largest EV producer, recorded its third consecutive monthly decline in vehicle registrations,

reflecting challenges in the Chinese market.
 Meanwhile, other markets offset some of the slowdown:

sales in Europe surged 48% to about 390,000 units on the back of government incentives;

North American sales rose 10% to over 170,000 units; and sales in other markets jumped 55% to more than 140,000 units.
 Global sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 1.6 million units in July.

Analysts expect the Chinese market to rebound in August with renewed funding for subsidy programs,

while North American demand may face pressure as tax credits are scaled back by the end of September.

 

 

Australia

Slight Slowdown in Australian Wage Growth in Q1 2025
 Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Wednesday morning showed a slight slowdown in wage growth,

with the Wage Price Index rising 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025,

in line with market expectations but below the 0.9% growth recorded in Q4 2024.
 Despite the modest slowdown, continued wage growth indicates that Australia’s labor market remains relatively strong,

which could keep pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia in its upcoming monetary policy decisions.

 

 

Historic Surge in U.S. Tariff Revenues Despite Deficit

Key Economic Decisions from Australia the U.S. and the U.K.

Key Economic Decisions from Australia the U.S. and the U.K.

Global markets watch monetary and trade policy moves amid interest rate cuts,

extended tariff truces, and labor market challenges.

 

Content

 

 

Australia

RBA Cuts Interest Rate to 3.60% as Inflation Continues to Ease
 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided in its August meeting on Tuesday morning to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%,

in line with market expectations.

In its monetary policy statement, the bank noted that inflation continues to decline toward its target range,

with annual core inflation at 2.7% and headline inflation at 2.1%, supported by temporary measures to ease living costs.

It also pointed out that unemployment has risen slightly but remains low, with the economy expected to grow over the coming year.

The RBA stated that higher interest rates have helped narrow the gap between supply and demand,

and it expects inflation to continue moving toward the mid-point of the target range (2–3%) while pursuing a gradual monetary easing path.

Although global trade policies have become relatively clearer following the setting of U.S. tariff ranges and measures by other countries,

the bank noted that uncertainty in the global economy remains high, with the potential for trade developments to impact global economic activity.

 

Trump

Trump Extends Tariff Truce with China by 90 Days
 U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday morning via his “Truth Social” platform

that he had signed an executive order extending the tariff truce with China for an additional 90 days,

confirming that all previous agreement terms would remain unchanged.

The deadline had been set to expire at midnight Tuesday Eastern Time,

which would have triggered an increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%,

alongside a rise in Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%.

However, the emergency extension kept current tariff levels in place—30% on the U.S. side and 10% on the Chinese side—until at least November 10.

 

 

United Kingdom

U.K. Labor Market Weakens Despite Wage Growth
 Data from the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics showed continued labor market weakness,

with the number of employees on company payrolls falling for the sixth consecutive month.

Employment dropped by 8,000 in July compared to June, alongside a decline in job vacancies.

Nevertheless, underlying wage growth in the private sector excluding bonuses remained strong at 4.8% in the three months to June,

compared with 4.9% in the previous period.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.7%, the highest level in four years.

These figures reflect the cautious stance of the Bank of England on cutting interest rates, with policy

 

 

 

Key Economic Decisions from Australia the U.S. and the U.K.

Caution Grips Gold and Oil Amid Policy Signals

Caution Grips Gold and Oil Amid Policy Signals
Global gold and oil markets start the week cautiously,

swayed by U.S. policy moves and shifting economic expectations.

 

Topic

Gold

Oil

 

 

 

 

Gold

Balancing Policy and Market Forces

 

Trump’s Remarks Stir Price Uncertainty

The gold market remains on edge after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that imports of the precious metal will not be subject to tariffs.

Spot prices held steady near $3,345 per ounce in London, following a sharp 1.6% drop the previous day.

The pullback came after a surprise move by U.S. Customs to impose duties on gold bars,

triggering market volatility that pushed New York futures sharply above London benchmarks before the gap narrowed.

 

Implications for Global Flows

The tariff debate could reshape the flow of bullion worldwide and affect the liquidity of U.S. futures trading.

Until Washington’s long-term trade stance becomes clear,

investors are likely to remain cautious. Gold has already surged more than 25% since the start of the year,

supported by geopolitical tensions and strong central bank purchases.

 

Dollar and Fed Policy in Focus

Traders are watching upcoming U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for many buyers,

while the extension of the U.S.-China tariff truce could reduce safe-haven demand.

 

 

 

Oil

Limited Gains, Lingering Risks

 

Trade Truce Offers Temporary Lift

Oil prices inched higher after Trump extended the suspension of higher tariffs on Chinese goods until November 10,

raising hopes for improved ties between the world’s two largest economies.

Brent hovered near $67 a barrel, while WTI steadied around $64, both still close to two-month lows.

 

Supply Growth Meets Slower Demand

Crude has fallen over 10% this year as OPEC+ reverses last year’s supply cuts amid signs of slowing global growth,

heightening oversupply concerns.

Market attention is turning to a scheduled meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin,

though expectations for a breakthrough on Russia sanctions remain low.
 Traders are also awaiting monthly reports from OPEC and the U.S. Energy Department,

which could provide clearer insights into the supply-demand balance going forward.

 

 

 

Caution Grips Gold and Oil Amid Policy Signals

Asian Rebound and Wall Street Caution Ahead of Inflation Data

Asian Rebound and Wall Street Caution Ahead of Inflation Data: Global markets saw a marked divergence,

With Asian equities posting substantial gains, supported by the extension of the tariff truce between

the United States and China.

At the same time, Wall Street retreated amid caution ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data,

which is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

 

Contents

Asia rebounds

Technology sector

Wall Street caution

Inflation outlook

Stock valuations

Elevated valuations

Political developments

 

 

 

Asia rebounds after extended trade truce.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 0.5%,

and the Nikkei 225 jumped to a record high as Japan returned from a holiday.

Shanghai’s stock gained 0.3%, and Hong Kong’s was flat.

In currency markets, the yen extended losses against the dollar for a third straight session, and gold rose 0.3%.

The gains came after U.S. President Donald Trump extended

the suspension of tariffs on Chinese goods for an additional 90 days until early November,

aiming to ease trade tensions and remove a source of market uncertainty.

Trump signed an order extending the truce until November 10, delaying a previously planned hike.

Seb Mullins, head of multi-asset and fixed income at Schroders Australia, said:

“Markets are comfortable with the August 12 extension,

But the absence of a final agreement keeps the risk of renewed trade disputes alive.”

 

Technology sector leads gains.

The trade truce began when Washington and Beijing agreed
to scale back reciprocal tariff increases
and ease restrictions on exporting rare earth magnets and specific technologies.
Trump wrote on Truth Social: “All other agreement elements will remain the same.”

Sentiment was further boosted by Micron Technology raising its revenue and earnings outlook
and Trump’s signal that Nvidia may be allowed to sell a modified version of its latest advanced AI chips to China.
This news lifted Asian chipmakers, led by Advantest and Samsung Electronics.

 

Caution on Wall Street ahead of inflation data

Wall Street indices fell as investors avoided big bets before the inflation report.

The S&P 500 stayed below 6,400, and Apple shares retreated after their best week since 2020.
while Intel shares rose ahead of a meeting between its CEO and Trump.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held at 4.28%, and the dollar index rose 0.3%,
Bitcoin briefly topped $122,000,
and gold futures lost after Trump said gold imports would not face tariffs.

 

Inflation outlook and Fed impact

Attention is now on the CPI data due Tuesday.

This is expected to show a modest 0.3% rise in the core index, excluding food and energy.

Chris Larkin of E*TRADE, part of Morgan Stanley, said:

“Market reaction could be exaggerated if the numbers come in much hotter than expected,

potentially leading investors to think the Fed won’t cut rates soon.”

Markets are pricing in more than two rate cuts by December,

with an 80–90% chance of a quarter-point cut next month.

JPMorgan Chase’s Andrew Tyler sees up to a 2%

The S&P 500 will rise if the data meets or undercuts forecasts,

but it will drop about 3% if it comes in higher.

Andrew Brenner of NatAlliance Securities added,

“Inflation will remain stubborn, but labor market weakness will be the bigger driver for the Fed.”

 

Stock valuations and investment trends

A 22V Research survey found that 18% of investors expect a positive reaction to the inflation data.

43% are mixed, and 39% are negative.

Mark Hackett of Nationwide noted:

“No strong evidence tariffs are having an impact, retail flows remain strong,

Institutions are hesitant but still buying, and buybacks are heading toward record levels.”

Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley said weak inflation data could give small-cap

Lower-quality stocks are more supported, but caution is urged.

Citi analysts raised their S&P 500 year-end target to 6,600 from 6,300,

citing strong corporate results and steady forecasts.

RBC Capital Markets’ Lori Calvasina pointed to a more optimistic tone

In recent earnings calls, despite ongoing concerns over demand and capital spending.

Ameriprise’s Anthony Saglimbene added:
“The focus is now on earnings growth,
AI advancements and economic resilience,

But inflation data could change the picture.”

 

Elevated valuations and hedging recommendations

A Bank of America monthly survey showed 91% of fund managers see U.S. stocks as overvalued

the highest since 2001.

Mark Haefele of UBS Global Wealth Management advised short-term

hedges for heavily invested portfolios and increasing exposure on pullbacks.

BofA’s Mark Cabana cut bond yield forecasts, expecting the Fed to reassess risks.

Two-year yield estimates fell to 3.5% from 3.75%, and 10-year to 4.25% from 4.5%.

 

Global political and economic updates

U.S. officials are considering Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson,

and Lorie Logan for Fed Chair next year,

with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to interview more candidates in the coming weeks.

Trump appointed E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In Australia, the central bank is poised for a third rate cut this year,

Governor Michele Bullock maintained a cautious stance.

On geopolitics, Trump downplayed expectations for his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin,

calling it “exploratory. ” He said he would consult Ukrainian and European leaders afterward.

He also hoped China would boost U.S. soybean purchases despite no booked orders.

 

Asian Rebound and Wall Street Caution Ahead of Inflation Data

European Stocks Rise at the Start of the Week

European Stocks Rise at the Start of the Week, Bitcoin Nears All-Time Highs

Global markets opened the week on a positive note, with European stocks climbing on the back of falling bond yields,

while Bitcoin continued its rally, approaching record highs amid growing institutional demand.

 

 

Content

 

Equities

European stocks opened the week’s trading higher, supported by declines in sovereign bond yields in Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom,

as the corporate earnings season nears its end.
 During Monday’s session, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.3% to 548 points,

buoyed by gains across various sectors despite pressure from energy, utilities, and defense stocks.

The UK’s FTSE 100 climbed by the same percentage to 9,121 points,

while Germany’s DAX held steady at 24,166 points,

and France’s CAC 40 remained unchanged at 7,748 points.

 

A report from Deutsche Bank indicated that earnings expectations for European companies have fallen by about 10% since the last quarter of 2024.

However, it noted relative improvement, with more than a quarter of companies raising their forecasts in the second quarter,

compared to only 17% that lowered theirs, according to CNBC.

Markets are also watching the approaching end of the three-month trade truce between the United States and China,

which began in May under an agreement to suspend most tariffs for 90 days.

There is heightened anticipation over the future of trade relations between the two nations.

 

 

Crypto

In the cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin extended its gains, approaching an all-time high,
supported by institutional demand amid ongoing trade tensions.

It rose 2.83% to $122,022, nearing its mid-July peak of $123,000.

Ethereum gained 1.35% to $4,306.97, Ripple climbed 2.55% to $3.2671, and Dogecoin advanced 1.91% to $0.2383.

 

 

European Stocks Rise at the Start of the Week, Bitcoin Nears All-Time Highs

New U.S. Tariffs on Indian Exports and Global Risk Warnings

New U.S. Tariffs on Indian Exports and Global Risk Warnings: India has announced that 55% of its exports to the United States

will be subject to doubled tariffs following recent decisions by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration,
amid concerns over the potential impact on trade exchange and economic growth.
At the same time, Bank of America revealed that the trade war remains the biggest threat to global markets,
followed by inflation risks, amid escalating economic and geopolitical tensions among major powers.

 

Contents

India

Bank of America

 

India: Over Half of Our Exports to the U.S. Will Be Subject to Tariffs After Trump’s Decisions

The Indian government announced on Monday that about 55% of its goods are exported.
The United States will be subject to tariffs recently imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.

During a parliamentary session, a representative from the Ministry

of Finance explained that the government had considered the previous 25% tariffs.
The representative noted that the Ministry of Commerce is currently holding consultations with exporters and industrialists
to assess the impact of the additional duties on the sector.
The decision came after Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports.

Last week, New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil raised the total tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. market to 50%.
Trade between the United States and India was valued at around $87 billion last fiscal year.
Still, observers warn that escalating trade tensions could negatively affect both countries’ trade flows and economic growth.

 

 

 

 

Bank of America: Trade War Tops Global Market Risks, Inflation Ranks Second

Bank of America revealed in its latest survey of global fund managers that the trade war
remains the biggest threat to markets,

with 29% of participants viewing it as the primary risk to the worldwide economy.
>The report noted that rising tensions among major economic powers,
especially between the United States and China,

are fueling investor concerns about slowing global growth and disruptions to supply chains.
>Inflation concerns came in second place at 27%,

amid worries about persistent price pressures and rising production costs,
which could prompt central banks to tighten monetary policy faster.

Bank of America pointed out that these dual risks are reinforcing caution among fund managers despite
The substantial gains recently recorded by markets await geopolitical developments

and economic data to determine the next direction.

 

New U.S. Tariffs on Indian Exports and Global Risk Warnings