Oil price falls unexpectedly as it approaches $110

Oil price falls unexpectedly as it approaches $110:This week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) declared a sudden decline of 6.1 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles;
however analysts expected a rise of 2.796 million barrels.

Evest follows market developments in the following report.


U.S. crude stockpiles declined

Oil prices for the week

Oil production weekly rates 

Latest decisions made by the market’s drivers

The oil sector updates


U.S. crude stockpiles declined

The U.S. crude stockpiles declined by 80 million barrels since 2021’s beginning and about 22 million barrels since 2022’s beginning.

Thus the world’s stockpiles declined too, the markets fear that stockpiles would lower to bad levels if Russian supplies of crude shrank due to sanctions.

In the last week the API proclaimed a rise of 5.983 million barrels in crude stockpiles while analysts forecasted a rise of 767.000 barrels, below the API data.

The API stated a drop of 2.5 million barrels in gasoline stockpiles for the week to Jan 25, compared with the previous week’s rise of 427.000 barrels.

Oil prices for the week

On Tuesday, oil prices rose sharply before data was released,
even after the ministerial meeting of the international energy agency approved the release of 60 million barrels of the strategic reserves around the world.

By midday West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 8.81% to $104.15 a barrel, $12 up throughout the week.

Brent crude rose 7.80% to $105.61 a barrel, $9 up throughout the week.

At the end of the day West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was for $106.07(+10.81%) and Brent crude traded for $107.26 (+9.48%).

Oil production weekly rates 

The U.S. production of crude remained constant for the third week in a row.

For the week to February 18 _ the last week,
the EIA reported data about the production ,
U.S. production of crude remained at 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd).

The production declined by 1.5 million bpd, below pre-pandemic rates.

Latest decisions made by the market’s drivers

British Petroleum (NYSE:BP), a giant British oil company, has become the first to withdraw  from Russian operations;
leaving behind a 19.75% share of $25 billion, controlled by Rosneft on the background of the intensive Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Many of sovereign wealth fund followed British Petroleum, amongst was the Norwegian fund of about $2.8 billion.

Norway’s Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) declared it will sell its share,
in many of the common blends that helped in the development of the thick oil in the west of Siberia for $1.2 billion.

Shell (LON:SHEL), which joined the initiative, will sell its share of 27.5% in Sakhalin ii,
for liquified natural gas besides any conjoined projects with Gazprom, for about $3 billion.

Stocks of Chevron (NYSE:CXV), an American oil company,
hit high for about $105 per stock, and it promised to double its rebuying stocks program to 5-10 billion dollars annually
that led to an increase in forecasts of cash flow by 2026.

Reports have shown that Nord stream 2, headquartered in Switzerland and the operator of a pipeline named after the same name,
doesn’t wish to declare bankruptcy and seeks to resolve demands before the end date of the American penalties.

Last week, Total Energies (NYSE:TTE) rose as a winning bidder for the U.S. offshore wind auction,
it got the deal of GW3 in the New York Bright privilege for $800 million, as it has been the biggest renewable project of the company so far.


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The oil sector updates

The international energy agency releases 60 SPR million barrels 

To face the potential rise for long times in oil prices, the international energy agency has released 60 million barrels of the strategic reserves;
half of the amount came from the U.S.

Goldman Sachs predicts for commodities’ prices to rise 

In an analytical report from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), it predicts a rise in prices of all commodities coming from Russia,
including gas, oil, palladium, nickel, wheat and corn. It raised its forecasts for crude’s prices in only one month to $115 a barrel.

OPEC defends the African oil investments

Muhammad Barkindo, OPEC’s minister said “ There would be a tragedy if the African countries managed not to benefit from their luxurious oil imports,
as  they shape less than 3% of the global emissions.”, saying the continent’s needs for development should be a priority.

The European Union links Ukraine to the energy network 

Energy ministers of the European Union have agreed to link Ukraine’s energy network,
to the Union as the Western Europe’s state detached its network from Russia,
so Russia can’t control technical sides such as the net frequency.

Chevron buys a diesel producer for $3 billion 

Reports have shown that Chevron (NYSE:CXV), an American oil company,
will buy the producer of fossil fuel in Iowa for renewable energy for $3 billion as a part of net zero investment campaign of 2050.

Germany builds two liquefied natural gas stations 

As Germany concerns about its dependence on the Russian gas,
Germany’s government decided to accelerate the building process of liquefied natural gas stations in Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven
(8 & 10 billion cubic meters per year in a row , none of them really exists),  both are on the state’s north sea’s coast.


Kurdistan disobeys Iraq’s federal court

The regional government of Kurdistan has denied the Iraqi federal court’s decision,
as the court sees that the oil activities of Kurdistan region are unconstitutional and should be handed over to Baghdad,
considering 425.000 bpd to be in the hands of Erbil.

Pemex loses again

As Mexico’s national oil company has marked great losses in the fourth quarter of 2021 of about $6.05 billion on the basis of tax rise and currency losses,
it is predicted to rely more on the government’s cash fund than the past year, as it was $10 billion.

Total challenges the calls to flee from Russia

It has been clear that the giant French, Total Energies (NYSE:TTE) is the only western leader to continue work in Russia,
but it announced that it will not afford any capital for any new projects in the state.