AI Slowdown: A Chance for Reassessment or a Sign of Challenges: The AI boom, valued at trillions of dollars,
fostered a widespread belief that generative models would continue advancing rapidly.
However, the current reality suggests otherwise.
Contents
Concerns About Sustaining Expansion
Enhancing Models with New Standards
An Opportunity for Regulation and Productivity
Steady Scaling Assumes
The “steady scaling” principle assumes that providing AI models
More data and computational power will consistently enhance performance.
Yet, recent reports indicate that this assumption no longer holds,
as major companies are finding it increasingly difficult
to achieve significant improvements in their models compared to the past.
According to a Bloomberg News report,
OpenAI’s “Orion” model showed no substantial progress over its predecessor,
GPT-4. Similarly, Google’s “Gemini” exhibited only slight advancements,
while Anthropic faced delays in releasing its anticipated model, “Claude.”
Concerns About Sustaining Expansion
Despite assurances from top executives at companies like OpenAI and Google
that progress has not plateaued,
signs of a slowdown are becoming apparent.
Experts, including OpenAI’s Ilya Sutskever,
have cautioned that the “massive scaling” era may have peaked.
Sutskever described the current phase as “an age of questioning and discovery”
implying a lack of clear direction for the next steps.
This situation raises concerns among investors who have allocated over a trillion
n dollars to develop infrastructure to fulfill AI ambitions.
An investigation by Bloomberg News revealed that central banks
and investment firms have spent billions on large data centers, further intensifying pressure for returns.
Who Are the Beneficiaries?
The world’s largest tech companies are undoubtedly the primary beneficiaries of the AI boom.
Cloud storage revenues for companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have consistently grown.
At the same time, the market value of companies such
as Nvidia, Apple, and Meta Platforms has collectively surged by over $8 trillion in the past two years.
However, the actual returns on investment for end-users
and customers remain unclear, raising questions about the broader benefits of this boom.
The Plateau Curve: Slowdown as a Natural Phenomenon
AI has followed the well-known “S-curve” trajectory,
where technological progress undergoes a phase of rapid growth
before slowing down to allow for sustainable development.
This slowdown, rather than being a hindrance,
might present an opportunity to reassess current strategies and focus on innovation.
For instance, it took decades for the aviation
industry to achieve a significant leap with the transition to jet engines.
Yet, progress continued through improvements in efficiency and safety.
AI may undergo a similar transformation,
where future efforts prioritize critical aspects like safety and ethics rather than simply enhancing capabilities.
Enhancing Models with New Standards
Instead of relying solely on massive datasets,
researchers are exploring ways to improve model performance post-training.
This includes optimizing inference by allowing models additional time to analyze responses.
OpenAI has described its new model as better at “logical reasoning,” reflecting this approach.
An Opportunity for Regulation and Productivity
Eric Brynjolfsson, an economist at Stanford University,
believes new technologies often experience a period
of productivity stagnation before achieving significant breakthroughs.
This slowdown could allow companies to refine their processes and adopt technology more effectively.
Moreover, this pause allows regulators sufficient time to establish robust legislation,
such as the European AI Act, expected to take effect in 2026.
Conclusion
Generative AI has experienced a slowdown following a period of rapid growth,
prompting companies to reassess their strategies.
While progress has decelerated, this presents a chance to enhance regulation,
improve productivity, and explore new paths for innovation.
The slowdown does not signify a halt but a necessary pause before the next leap forward.
AI Slowdown: A Chance for Reassessment or a Sign of Challenges
