Tag Archives: Oil prices

Oil Prices Stabilize Amid Market Optimism and Supply Concerns

Oil Prices Stabilize Amid Market Optimism and Supply Concerns

Oil prices stabilized after strong gains supported by slowing inflation in the United States and positive demand data,
as markets anticipate “OPEC+” moves and global production levels.

 

Contents

 

 

 

 

 

Production Cut Agreement

Kazakhstan’s Agreement with Oil Companies to Reduce Production

Oil prices stabilized after recording their biggest gain in two weeks,
supported by slowing inflation in the United States and positive demand data.

Brent crude traded near $71 per barrel after rising 2% on Wednesday,
while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell below $68 per barrel.

Official data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in four months in February,
despite economists’ expectations that the escalating trade war could drive up the prices of goods
such as food and clothing in the coming months.

 

 

 

Prices

Improved Risk Sentiment Supports Prices

Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore,
stated that “crude oil prices have benefited from improved risk sentiment in the markets.”
However, he warned of persistent risks, particularly regarding global growth and potential tariffs,
which could cloud future price expectations.

Crude oil prices have retreated from their mid-January highs as major oil traders grow more pessimistic
about price forecasts due to supply levels exceeding demand.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is expected to provide a clearer picture of the situation in its monthly report on Thursday,
following a recent downgrade of U.S. projections regarding supply surpluses.

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPEC

OPEC+ Production Increase and Declining Cushing Inventories

 It production increased last month, with Kazakhstan continuing to exceed its production cap,
according to a report issued by the organization on Wednesday.
Kazakhstan announced that it had reached an agreement with global oil companies to reduce production.

In the United States, commercial inventories rose for the second consecutive week,
though the 1.4 million-barrel increase was significantly lower than market expectations.
Meanwhile, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma— the delivery point for WTI crude—declined by 1.2 million barrels,
marking their first drop in five weeks.

At the same time, price differentials also indicate market improvement.
The premium for Brent crude for next-month delivery over four-month forward contracts widened to $1.42 per barrel
in a bullish backwardation structure, up from a low of $1.04 per barrel last month.

 

 

 

 

Oil Prices Stabilize Amid Market Optimism and Supply Concerns

EIA: Oil Prices Expected to Rise as Global Production Declines

EIA: Oil Prices Expected to Rise as Global Production Declines:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a rise in
oil prices during the third quarter of this year,
supported by a decline in global oil inventories and lower production in Iran and Venezuela.

 

Content
Fitch Agency

EIA

 

 

 

 

 

Fitch Agency: Boeing Regains Production Momentum, Stock Rises on Positive Outlook

Fitch Ratings confirmed on Tuesday that American aerospace
company Boeing has started regaining production momentum
after overcoming the strike that previously impacted its operations.
The agency highlighted a significant improvement in supply
chain management and a reduction in accumulated inventory.

According to Fitch, these developments enhance Boeing’s chances
of reaching a production rate of 38 aircraft per month by the third quarter of this year,
signaling an operational recovery and the company’s ability to overcome past delivery delays.

Fitch emphasized that managing supply chain challenges
and improving production efficiency will be critical for stabilizing the aviation sector,
especially as demand for commercial aircraft grows
and the global aviation market has recovered from the slowdown in recent years.

This positive outlook directly boosted Boeing’s stock performance,
pushing it up by 1.45% (equivalent to $2.23 per share)
to reach $150.41 in today’s trading.
Optimism about the company’s ability fueled this increase.
to improve its operations and achieve its planned production targets for the year.

 

EIA: Oil Prices Expected to Rise as Global Production Declines

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects oil prices to rise in the third quarter of this year,
driven by declining global oil inventories and reduced production in Iran and Venezuela.

According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook report released Tuesday,
Brent crude prices are expected to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter,
marking a 1.4% increase from previous estimates.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude prices are projected to rise to $71.5 per barrel, up 2.1% from prior forecasts.

The EIA revised its global oil production forecast by 0.6%
to 104.5 million barrels per day in Q3. OPEC+ production
is expected to remain steady at 42.9 million barrels per day,
while U.S. production is set to decline slightly to 13.64 million barrels per day.

On the demand side, global oil consumption is projected to increase to 104.5 million barrels per day in Q3,
compared to 103.7 million barrels per day in Q2.
The EIA also forecasts U.S. electricity consumption to grow by 3% this year,
up from a previous estimate of 2%.

Regarding natural gas, analysts expect the Henry Hub benchmark price to rise.
to average $4.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu),
an 11% increase from prior estimates.
Rising consumption amid low inventory levels will drive this increase.

The EIA also noted that its forecasts consider the tariffs imposed
by the U.S. and China on energy products, which have been in effect since February.
These tariffs could impact global energy trade flows.

 

EIA: Oil Prices Expected to Rise as Global Production Declines

Market Volatility: Gold Declines and Oil Rises Amid Economic and Political Changes

Market Volatility: Gold Declines and Oil Rises Amid Economic and Political Changes

Global markets are experiencing mixed movements,
with gold declining due to profit-taking after reaching a record high,
while oil prices are rising following new U.S. sanctions on Iran.
This reflects the impact of economic and political factors on key assets.

 

Content

 

 

 

 

Gold

Gold Prices Decline Due to Profit-Taking After Reaching a Record High

Gold prices dropped as investors took profits after the precious metal reached a new record high.
The spot price of gold fell by 0.5% to $2,937.65 per ounce, after peaking at $2,956.19 per ounce on Monday,
driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

This decline comes amid shifting expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy,
as markets now anticipate a delayed rate cut compared to forecasts from just a week ago,
which enhances gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

On the geopolitical front, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated tensions
with China through new measures related to investment and trade,
increasing risks for relations between the two nations.
Gold also received additional support from declining U.S. government bond yields following strong demand in a two-year bond auction,
coinciding with weak economic activity data from last week.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by gold also saw strong inflows, recording their highest net purchases since 2022,
helping the metal gain more than 12% since the beginning of the year.

Investors are now focusing on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index,
set to be released on Friday, which may provide new insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

As of 12:18 PM Singapore time, spot gold prices settled at $2,937.65 per ounce, down 0.5%,
while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined by 0.1%. Silver remained unchanged,
while both platinum and palladium saw slight declines.

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

Oil Prices Rise Following New U.S. Sanctions on Iran

Oil prices rose for the second consecutive session after the United States imposed new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports,
marking a return to Washington’s “maximum pressure” strategy against Tehran.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $71 per barrel, after gaining 0.4% on Monday, while Brent crude neared $75 per barrel.

The U.S. sanctions affected 22 individuals and 13 vessels, which Washington claimed were involved in illegal Iranian oil shipments.
The targeted entities are located in Iran, the UAE, Hong Kong, India, and China.

 

Market Volatility and Supply Challenges

Oil prices have experienced a volatile start to the year, initially rising due to cold weather and a previous round of U.S. sanctions
but later facing downward pressure due to concerns over tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
In a press conference, the U.S. President confirmed that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would proceed as planned,
which could impact oil shipments and increase transportation costs.

In addition to sanctions, the market faces other supply-related challenges.
Investors widely expect the OPEC+ alliance to postpone production hikes once again.
Meanwhile, Iraq is seeking to resume oil flows through the Kurdistan pipeline,
and ongoing negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could impact Russian oil exports.

In London, the International Energy Week Conference is set to begin on Tuesday, where Fatih Birol,
head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), along with top executives from leading energy companies,
will discuss the future outlook for oil markets.

 

 

 

Market Volatility: Gold Declines and Oil Rises Amid Economic and Political Changes

 

Oil prices plummeted sharply

Oil prices plummeted sharply amid expectations of abundant supplies and significant market volatility.

Oil markets are currently experiencing a sharp price decline,
driven by expectations of abundant supplies and increasing market volatility.

 

Topic

Price Decline

Supply Outlook

 

 

 

 

Price Decline

West Texas Intermediate crude has witnessed a significant drop,
falling by approximately 3% to close at around $68.50 per barrel—the lowest closing price since December 26.
The market has endured a continuous five-week decline,
with prices dipping below the 100-day moving average of roughly $71.51.

 

 

Supply Outlook

Indicators suggest a potential increase in oil flows, particularly from Iraq,
along with the possibility that the OPEC+ alliance may delay its planned supply injection of an additional 120,000 barrels per day.
The market is also facing extra pressure from a drone attack on Kazakhstan’s oil pipelines,
coupled with the impact of US tariff policies and other political measures that
have dampened demand forecasts and heightened long-term inflation concerns.

 

 

Oil prices plummeted sharply amid expectations of abundant supplies and significant market volatility

Global Commodity Trends: Market Fluctuations and Investment Opportunities

Global Commodity Trends: Market Fluctuations and Investment Opportunities

The commodity markets are experiencing significant fluctuations driven by economic and political factors,
creating both opportunities and challenges for investors.
Here’s a look at the performance of copper, oil, and gold amid these developments.

 

Topic

Copper

Oil

Gold

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copper

Trade Tariffs Pose a Threat to Gains

Copper prices in the London Metal Exchange (LME) declined following warnings from Citigroup about the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on global demand. Despite an 8% increase in copper prices since the beginning of the year, analysts predict that tariffs could lead to further declines in the coming months.

  • Analysts expect copper to remain around $9,400 per ton until early April, before dropping to $8,500 per ton due to rising trade barriers.
  • The price gap between copper in the COMEX and LME markets may widen to $1,400 per ton, compared to the current $800 per ton, as tariffs increase costs within the U.S. market.
  • As of this morning, copper prices fell 0.4% to $9,438.50 per ton, with mixed performance across other base metals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

Stability Amid Inventory and Production Volatility

Oil prices remained steady after three consecutive days of gains, supported by expectations of increasing U.S. crude inventories and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

  • Brent crude traded near $76 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $72 per barrel.
  • The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 3.3-million-barrel increase in commercial crude inventories, which could put additional pressure on prices.
  • Supply concerns continue to support prices, as OPEC+ may delay production hikes, while Kazakhstan’s exports were disrupted by drone attacks on Russian oil facilities.
  • Analysts at RHB Bank expect Brent crude to average $75 per barrel this year, as market uncertainty persists.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold

A Safe Haven Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Gold prices surged to record highs, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating political uncertainties.

  • The precious metal reached $2,947.23 per ounce, surpassing its previous all-time high.
  • This rally comes amid concerns over shifting U.S. policies toward Ukraine, prompting investors to seek stability in gold.
  • Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, citing strong central bank purchases as a key driver.
  • With the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance on interest rates, gold remains a preferred asset for risk-averse investors.

 

 

Performance of Other Precious Metals

Gold wasn’t the only metal experiencing notable movements. Other key precious metals also saw price shifts:

  • Silver rose to $22.75 per ounce, driven by increasing industrial demand.
  • Platinum remained steady at $965 per ounce, as demand in the automotive sector showed signs of improvement.
  • Palladium traded at $1,285 per ounce, with volatility persisting in the catalytic converter market.

 

 

Market Outlook

The global commodity markets are navigating a complex landscape shaped by economic and geopolitical influences. Copper faces headwinds from trade tariffs, oil is balancing between inventory fluctuations and supply concerns, while gold continues its bullish run as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, silver, platinum, and palladium are gaining momentum amid growing industrial demand. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of these key commodities.

 

 

 

 

Global Commodity Trends: Market Fluctuations and Investment Opportunities

Oil and Gold Markets Amid Supply Fluctuations and Economic Tensions

Oil and Gold Markets Amid Supply Fluctuations and Economic Tensions

Oil prices stabilized after strong gains amid concerns over declining Russian supplies,
while gold reached record levels driven by economic uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions.

 

Content

 

 

 

 

Oil

 

Brent Crude Nears $76 Per Barrel After a 1.6% Gain in the Previous Session

Oil prices remained stable following their biggest surge in nearly four weeks,
as concerns over dwindling Russian crude supplies overshadowed worries about the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff escalation.

Brent crude futures traded near $76 per barrel after rising 1.6% on Monday,
while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained above $72, sustaining a two-day gain.
Recent data revealed that Russian oil production continued to decline, staying below the country’s quota under the OPEC+ agreement,
according to informed sources.

Oil markets have experienced volatility at the start of the year,
initially driven by increased heating demand due to cold winter conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. However, over the past three weeks, market sentiment has been weighed down by concerns
that Trump’s tariff policies could trigger multiple trade wars.

 

Impact of Tariffs and Escalating Geopolitical Tensions

Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminum, including supplies from Canada and Mexico,
two of the country’s largest metal exporters.
These tariffs are set to take effect on March 4, with Trump indicating that they “could increase further” to bolster domestic production.

Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone, noted that assessing the actual impact of these tariffs remains challenging.
However, short-term market movements suggest that prices may have reached a temporary support level.

Additionally, Trump commented on the possibility of Israel canceling its ceasefire agreement with Hamas if hostages are not released,
raising concerns over escalating tensions in the region—an issue that could further impact global energy markets.

 

Signs of Supply Tightness and Rising Demand

Markets are signaling supply shortages, particularly in the Middle East,
where reduced competition from other suppliers has allowed regional producers to increase prices for their key Asian customers.
In Europe, elevated natural gas prices have made oil a more cost-effective alternative, potentially driving up demand.

 

 

Oil and Gold Markets Amid Supply Fluctuations and Economic Tensions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold

Gold Hits Record High of $2,942 Per Ounce Before Slight Retreat Amid Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices soared to a record high, fueled by rising economic uncertainty after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum imports. This development has driven investors toward safe-haven assets, boosting demand for gold.

The price of gold peaked at $2,942 per ounce before retreating slightly, following a 1.7% gain in the previous session. Trump stated that the tariffs, set to take effect on March 4, aim to support domestic industries and create more jobs in the U.S., warning that they “could rise further.” This bolstered gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic instability.

 

Sustained Rally Driven by Economic and Geopolitical Risks

Gold has surged 11% since the start of the year, repeatedly setting new records amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions. Investors are now closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress for insights into future monetary policy directions.

Short-term inflation expectations have outpaced long-term forecasts, creating the widest gap since 2023. On Monday, the five-year breakeven inflation rate—a key market measure of inflation expectations—reached 2.64%. This could prompt the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of monetary easing, a scenario that may pose a downside risk for gold, given its non-yielding nature.

 

Institutional Demand Supports Gold’s Gains

In a significant move, China’s central bank increased its gold reserves for the third consecutive month in January, signaling a continued commitment to diversifying its assets despite record-high prices. Additionally, China has allowed ten of its largest insurance companies to invest up to 1% of their assets in gold for the first time—a move that could inject around 200 billion yuan ($27.4 billion) into the market, according to Minsheng Securities.

In the spot market, gold prices rose 0.4% to $2,928.36 per ounce as of 7:50 AM in Singapore.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s U.S. dollar index added 0.1% following a 0.2% gain on Monday.
Silver and platinum recorded slight gains, whereas palladium prices declined.

 

With both oil and gold navigating economic and geopolitical uncertainties, market watchers remain vigilant as these commodities continue their volatile trajectory.

 

 

Oil and Gold Markets Amid Supply Fluctuations and Economic Tensions

Commodity-Linked Currencies Decline as Trump Signals More Tariffs

Commodity-Linked Currencies Decline as Trump Signals More Tariffs Amid Rising Trade Tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports
has triggered a wave of declines in commodity-linked currencies.
The Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar both fell amid global market risk aversion.

 

Topic
Stocks
Oil
Trump

 

 

 

 

Stocks

In the stock markets, Asian indices recorded their largest weekly decline,
while Chinese and Hong Kong stocks saw notable gains.
Meanwhile, in the commodities sector, iron ore prices rose,
and gold approached record levels as investors shifted toward safe-haven assets.

These market movements come as traders anticipate a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum,
adding to uncertainty ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress this week.
Additionally, Trump is expected to expand tariff measures to include all countries,
though no specific timeline has been provided.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

Oil prices saw a slight recovery following a series of weekly declines,
as markets continue to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs on the energy sector.
Brent crude stabilized near $75 per barrel after posting its third consecutive weekly decline,
while WTI crude surpassed $71 per barrel.

This recovery comes as China prepares to retaliate against U.S. tariffs,
announcing that it will impose countermeasures on American goods starting Monday—
further escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump

On Sunday, Trump hinted at broader tariffs on aluminum and steel,
potentially impacting the U.S. energy sector, particularly oil exploration companies reliant on specific steel types not produced domestically.

Since mid-January, oil prices have faced increasing pressure due to weaker global demand forecasts and Trump’s trade policies,
shaking investor confidence.
Market indicators, such as time spreads in futures contracts, suggest growing concerns about near-term supply increases.

At the same time, speculators have ramped up bearish bets on U.S. crude at the fastest pace since October,
with net long positions in WTI contracts declining for the second consecutive week,
while a five-week winning streak in Brent speculative positions has come to an end.

These movements reflect ongoing global market uncertainty,
as Trump’s trade policies continue to shape commodity prices, currencies, and financial markets.
The coming period will be crucial in monitoring U.S.-China trade developments and their impact on the global economy.

 

 

 

Commodity-Linked Currencies Decline as Trump Signals More Tariffs

Economic Shifts: Gold Investments, Gas Prices, and Inflation

Economic Shifts: Gold Investments, Gas Prices, and Inflation:
The global economy is experiencing significant Economic Shifts amid economic challenges and market fluctuations.
China has launched a pilot program allowing insurance companies to invest in gold for the first time,
potentially unlocking billions of dollars in precious metal investments.
Meanwhile, natural gas prices in Europe have reached
their highest level in two years due to increased demand and declining inventories.
In China, consumer inflation has recorded its fastest growth rate
in five months despite the continued contraction in producer prices.

This report highlights these economic developments and their potential impact on global markets.

 

Content

Insurance Investments

Gas Prices in Europe and the UK

Inflation in China

 

 

 

 

 

China Allows Insurers to Invest in Gold for the First Time

China has introduced a pilot program enabling insurance companies to purchase gold for the first time.
This move aims to unlock billions of dollars in potential investments in
the precious metal amid a sluggish real estate market and economic slowdown.

Under the program, which took effect last Friday,
ten insurance companies will be allowed to invest 1% of their assets in gold,
amounting to approximately 200 billion yuan ($27.4 billion), according to a note issued by Minsheng Securities.

This step reflects the Chinese authorities’ recognition of the limited investment options,
pushing them to seek safer alternatives amid current economic challenges.

Gold has seen substantial gains in recent months, supported by growing economic and geopolitical risks,
particularly following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The yellow metal has surged by nearly 40% since the end of 2023, reinforcing its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

This marks the first time Chinese authorities have allowed insurance companies to invest in gold.
They previously restricted investments to assets that
generate stable cash returns and limited exposure to bonds and stocks.

 

 

 

 

Gas Prices in Europe and the UK Hit a Two-Year High Amid Rising Demand and Inventory Drawdowns

Natural gas prices in Europe and the UK surged on Monday,
reaching their highest levels in two years, driven by cold weather, increased demand, and declining inventories.

Dutch gas futures, the European benchmark for natural gas,
rose by 4.71% to €58.35 ($60.275) per megawatt-hour, marking the highest level since February 2023.

Similarly, British gas futures for March delivery jumped by 4.39%
to £1.4171 ($1.76) per 100,000 British thermal units, reaching a two-year high.

According to a Reuters report, this surge was fueled by forecasts that lower temperatures across
Northwest Europe would start next week and continue through March.

As a result, natural gas demand in Europe has risen, leading to continued inventory drawdowns.
Analysts at ING noted that European gas inventories have reached
their lowest levels for this time of year since the 2022 energy crisis.

 

China’s Inflation Records the Fastest Growth in Five Months Despite Continued Producer Price Contraction

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China, released on Sunday,
showed that consumer inflation accelerated in January, marking its fastest growth rate in five months.
This occurred despite persistent deflationary pressures in the industrial sector.

According to the data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures overall inflation in China,
rose by 0.5% year-over-year in January, exceeding expectations of a 0.4% increase.
However, this reading was still lower than December’s figure, which recorded only a 0.1% rise.

Conversely, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which reflects inflation in the industrial sector,
continued its annual contraction in January, declining by 2.3%, worse than the forecasted 2.2% decline.

These figures highlight persistent economic pressures in China,
where economic recovery remains fragile despite improvements in consumer demand.
Meanwhile, the industrial sector continues to face prolonged deflationary pressures.

 

 

Economic Shifts: Gold Investments, Gas Prices, and Inflation

OPEC+ Facing Challenges: Between Trump’s Pressure and Sanctions on Russia

OPEC+ Facing Challenges: Between Trump’s Pressure and Sanctions on Russia

Amid global political and economic tensions, investors are closely watching the OPEC+ meeting,
which may determine the trajectory of oil prices in the coming months.

 

Content:

 

 

 

 

 

Global Anticipation

Decisions Amid Calls for Lower Prices and Tightened Sanctions on Moscow
The global oil markets are closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Monday,
as rapid developments unfold, including increasing U.S. pressure, the repercussions of recent sanctions on Russia,
and concerns about supply stability.

The meeting comes as U.S. President Donald Trump urges the organization to lower oil prices,
arguing that this could pressure Russia into ending the war in Ukraine by reducing its oil revenues.
However, Russia remains a key player within the alliance.

 

 

Trump’s Influence

Will OPEC+ Change Its Policy?
 Despite Trump’s demands, an OPEC delegate told “Asharq” that the alliance’s decisions are based on market considerations
rather than political statements.
The delegate added that Trump’s remarks are not new, as he had previously called for increased production
and lower prices during his first term, which did not alter OPEC+ policies.

Experts suggest that a significant production increase could weaken Trump’s slogan “Drill,
baby, drill,” as it might undermine the ability of U.S. oil producers to boost their production.
At the same time, some analysts believe that sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia,
along with tariffs against Canada and Mexico, may limit market supplies.

 

 

Diplomatic Moves

As part of preparations for the meeting, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman held discussions with officials from Iraq and Libya, focusing on energy cooperation and market stability.
While no specific details were disclosed about the upcoming meeting, these discussions highlight the alliance’s efforts to ensure market stability amid current challenges.

For more than two years, OPEC+ has been curbing supplies to support prices, with production resumption repeatedly delayed.
The group is expected to gradually increase production from April, with monthly increments of 120,000 barrels per day.

 

 

Sanctions on Russia

A New Test for the Alliance’s Unity The latest U.S. sanctions pose a new challenge to Russian oil supplies, prompting many Asian customers to seek alternatives from the Middle East. However, an OPEC delegate noted that Russia consistently finds ways to bypass sanctions and maintain its exports.

According to Goldman Sachs, the extensive U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil sector will not lead to a “significant decline” in production,
as high shipping costs and lower Russian crude prices continue to support trade flows.
Meanwhile, analysts believe that OPEC+ will not rush to adjust its production policy in direct response to sanctions or U.S. pressure
but will instead monitor developments before making substantial decisions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPEC+ Facing Challenges: Between Trump’s Pressure and Sanctions on Russia

 

Meeting Scenarios

Will the Alliance Maintain Its Production Policy?

A source familiar with energy matters in an OPEC country stated that the most likely scenario (80% probability) is to maintain the current production policy until the end of the first half of the year.
The source warned that a sudden production increase could cause oil prices to collapse,
an outcome that producing nations would find unacceptable.

Market observers expect that OPEC+ will continue restricting supplies in the first quarter before gradually easing restrictions from April onward.
A Bloomberg survey of 15 analysts and traders indicated that the alliance aims to prevent excessive price declines to sustain investment in the oil sector.

 

 

Post-March Prospects

Will OPEC+ Increase Production? James Swanston, a financial analyst at Capital Economics,
believes that the alliance may use the post-March period as an opportunity to advance its long-term goals,
such as regaining market share through gradual production increases.

He added that Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia,
could increase production to 12 million barrels per day while ensuring that prices remain above $60 per barrel,
which would support economic growth in the region.

 

 

Key Milestones in OPEC+ Production Cuts

  • The alliance began cutting production in November 2022 due to weak demand, particularly in China after the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • In July 2023, eight alliance members committed to voluntary production cuts, with Saudi Arabia shouldering the largest reduction of 1 million barrels per day, while Russia reduced its output by approximately 400,000 barrels per day.
  • The current total production cuts by OPEC+ amount to about 5.9 million barrels per day.
  • The initial reduction of 3.66 million barrels per day has been extended until 2026.
  • The upcoming meeting will discuss whether to revoke or maintain the voluntary reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day.

 

Conclusion

As markets eagerly await the OPEC+ meeting, the alliance’s decisions remain dependent on global developments,
particularly the increasing sanctions on Russia and political pressure from the U.S. Balancing market stability with the interests of oil-producing countries will keep the alliance’s decisions under close scrutiny in the coming months.

 

 

 

OPEC+ Facing Challenges: Between Trump’s Pressure and Sanctions on Russia

Oil Prices Decline for the First Time in 2025 Under Political Pressure

Oil Prices Decline for the First Time in 2025 Under Political Pressure

Oil prices recorded their first weekly decline this year,
influenced by statements from U.S. President Donald Trump urging a reduction in costs,
along with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to negotiate on Ukraine and oil prices.

 

Content

 

 

 

 

Putin

Putin Affirms Readiness to Negotiate on Ukraine and Oil Prices with Trump
Oil prices witnessed their first weekly decline in 2025 following statements
from U.S. President Donald Trump hinting at trade wars and urging the “OPEC+” alliance to reduce oil costs.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to close above $74 per barrel after a volatile session.
This decline coincided with statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin,
who expressed his readiness to negotiate with Trump on the Ukraine crisis and oil prices.
Earlier this week, Trump threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russia if no agreement
was reached to end the prolonged conflict in Ukraine.

 

 

 

America

Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Global Oil Markets
Global markets have been grappling with supply shortages due to U.S. sanctions previously imposed on Russian oil,
which aimed to strengthen Ukraine’s position in political negotiations.
However, easing these sanctions could increase supplies for Asian markets,
which are actively seeking alternatives to meet their energy needs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

Oil Markets Under Pressure from Trump’s Statements
Since the beginning of his new term, Trump’s statements have caused significant volatility in oil markets.
He started the first week by threatening to impose tariffs on countries like Canada,
Mexico, and China, followed by urging the “OPEC+” alliance to lower oil prices.
Nadia Martin Wiggen, managing director at Svelland Capital,
explained that Trump aims to reduce gasoline prices for consumers while ensuring continued domestic production.
This puts him in a complex position between supporting consumers and producers.

Despite a 4.1% decline in New York futures this week, prices remain higher compared to the beginning of the year,
driven by cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere and Russian sanctions.
Markets have also shown relative stability after the sharp fluctuations caused by these sanctions.

One of Trump’s recent steps was declaring a national energy emergency to boost domestic production.
He also pledged to replenish U.S. oil reserves to their maximum capacity.

 

Expected Impact: Will Oil Prices Continue to Decline?
With continued U.S. pressure and calls to lower prices,
attention is focused on how “OPEC+” will respond to these demands and the potential impact of negotiations
between Putin and Trump on the global oil market.

 

 

Oil Prices Decline for the First Time in 2025 Under Political Pressure