Economic Shifts: Gold Investments, Gas Prices, and Inflation

Economic Shifts: Gold Investments, Gas Prices, and Inflation:
The global economy is experiencing significant Economic Shifts amid economic challenges and market fluctuations.
China has launched a
pilot program allowing insurance companies to invest in gold for the first time,
potentially unlocking billions of dollars in precious metal investments.
Meanwhile,
natural gas prices in Europe have reached
their highest level in two years due to increased demand and declining inventories.
In China,
consumer inflation has recorded its fastest growth rate
in five months despite the continued contraction in producer prices.

This report highlights these economic developments and their potential impact on global markets.

 

Content

Insurance Investments

Gas Prices in Europe and the UK

Inflation in China

 

 

 

 

 

China Allows Insurers to Invest in Gold for the First Time

China has introduced a pilot program enabling insurance companies to purchase gold for the first time.
This move aims to unlock billions of dollars in potential investments in
the precious metal amid a sluggish
real estate market and economic slowdown.

Under the program, which took effect last Friday,
ten insurance companies will be allowed to invest 1% of their assets in gold,
amounting to approximately
200 billion yuan ($27.4 billion), according to a note issued by Minsheng Securities.

This step reflects the Chinese authorities’ recognition of the limited investment options,
pushing them to seek safer alternatives amid current economic challenges.

Gold has seen substantial gains in recent months, supported by growing economic and geopolitical risks,
particularly following
Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The yellow metal has surged by nearly
40% since the end of 2023, reinforcing its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

This marks the first time Chinese authorities have allowed insurance companies to invest in gold.
They previously restricted investments to assets that
generate stable cash returns and limited exposure to bonds and stocks.

 

 

 

 

Gas Prices in Europe and the UK Hit a Two-Year High Amid Rising Demand and Inventory Drawdowns

Natural gas prices in Europe and the UK surged on Monday,
reaching their highest levels in two years, driven by
cold weather, increased demand, and declining inventories.

Dutch gas futures, the European benchmark for natural gas,
rose by 4.71% to €58.35 ($60.275) per megawatt-hour, marking the highest level since February 2023.

Similarly, British gas futures for March delivery jumped by 4.39%
to £1.4171 ($1.76) per 100,000 British thermal units, reaching a two-year high.

According to a Reuters report, this surge was fueled by forecasts that lower temperatures across
Northwest Europe would start next week and continue through March.

As a result, natural gas demand in Europe has risen, leading to continued inventory drawdowns.
Analysts at
ING noted that European gas inventories have reached
their lowest levels for this time of year since the 2022 energy crisis.

 

China’s Inflation Records the Fastest Growth in Five Months Despite Continued Producer Price Contraction

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China, released on Sunday,
showed that
consumer inflation accelerated in January, marking its fastest growth rate in five months.
This occurred despite
persistent deflationary pressures in the industrial sector.

According to the data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures overall inflation in China,
rose by 0.5% year-over-year in January, exceeding expectations of a 0.4% increase.
However, this reading was still lower than
December’s figure, which recorded only a 0.1% rise.

Conversely, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which reflects inflation in the industrial sector,
continued its annual contraction in January, declining by 2.3%, worse than the forecasted 2.2% decline.

These figures highlight persistent economic pressures in China,
where
economic recovery remains fragile despite improvements in consumer demand.
Meanwhile, the
industrial sector continues to face prolonged deflationary pressures.

 

 

Economic Shifts: Gold Investments, Gas Prices, and Inflation

Divergence in China’s Economic Performance

Divergence in China’s Economic Performance

A slight slowdown in Chinese manufacturing is offset by strong growth in non-manufacturing activity,
reflecting a divergence in the performance of economic sectors in December.

 

Content

 

 

 

 

 

China

Slight Slowdown in Chinese Manufacturing Activity and Strong Growth in Non-Manufacturing Activity in December

Data from the China Federation of Logistics on Tuesday showed a marginal slowdown
in the manufacturing sector’s activity in December,
with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recording 50.1 points.
This is below expectations of 50.3 points and the previous reading of 50.3 points in November.

In contrast, non-manufacturing activity expanded significantly,
with the Non-Manufacturing PMI recording 52.2 points,
exceeding expectations of 50.2 points and higher than November’s reading of 50.0 points.

PMI readings above 50 indicate sector growth, while readings below that level reflect contraction.

 

 

 

 

Gas

European Gas Prices Rise as Russian Supply Halt Looms
European gas prices rose by 2% on Tuesday,
with Dutch gas futures reaching €48.85 per megawatt-hour amid expectations of a halt in Russian gas supplies through Ukraine.

The gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine is set to expire today, with Kyiv refusing to extend it,
accusing Moscow of using revenues to fund the war.
This comes as Europe braces for a sharp drop in temperatures in January,
increasing the demand for gas used in heating.

Meanwhile, Slovakia has threatened to cut backup electricity supplies to Ukraine
if gas shipments through Ukrainian territory are halted.

 

 

 

Divergence in China’s Economic Performance

European Gas Storage Reaches 90%

European Gas Storage Reaches 90% Full Ahead of Target Date
It is expected that the surge in gas prices will halt after European gas storage levels reached 90% of their target,
well ahead of the November deadline.

 

 

 

Content

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas


Prices had been rising sharply due to demand driven by fears of supply shortages before the start of winter.
However, despite the current storage levels being lower than those at the same time last year,
overall stocks remain above the five-year average.

 

 

 

 

Xiaomi


Xiaomi’s business report exceeds analysts’ expectations.

On Wednesday, Xiaomi released its business report for the second quarter of this year, showing a 32% increase in revenues,
reaching 88.9 billion yuan, compared to the forecast of 85.8 billion yuan.
These gains were supported by the successful launch of Xiaomi’s automotive division,
which saw significant success with the release of its first cars, alongside continued strong sales of its mobile phones.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump


Trump’s company’s shares fall to record lows.

The shares of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s company, Trump Media & Technology Group,
have seen a significant decline over the past few days after Trump returned to the X platform (formerly known as Twitter).
The stock closed yesterday at 21.42, marking its eighth consecutive day of decline. Additionally,
Trump’s drop in polls since Kamala Harris announced her candidacy instead of President Joe Biden has contributed to the mounting pressure on the company’s shares.

 

 

 

European Gas Storage Reaches 90% Full Ahead of Target Date

Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

 

Japan embraces gas support for the G7 but companies may face long-term challenges

the Japanese energy companies rushed to adopt G7 support for investing in natural gas

in their statement last month. However,

analysts have warned that reliance on fossil

fuels may expose companies to long-term problems.

 

Content

Japanese Gas

Australian Gas

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Japanese Gas

 

Japan, a resource-poor and the world’s largest buyer of liquefied natural gas (LNG)

is committed to gas as a transitional fuel to achieve net carbon emission targets

while ensuring energy security. However,

this contradicts the demands of other G7 members to reduce everything,

calling for fossil fuel use sooner rather than later.

 

Climate activists argue that Japan’s insistence on continuing to rely on gas

could delay global climate change goals,

especially as energy companies in Japan are reaping significant

profits from their investments in this sector.

 

Ultimately, climate ministers of the G7 agreed last month,

despite disagreements between Japan and European countries,

that gas investments “could be appropriate to help address potential market shortages”

due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting disruptions in global energy markets.

 

On Monday, Takahiro Honjo, Chairman of the Japan Gas Association,

stated that the fact that the G7 clarified that investing in natural gas is appropriate eases some

investment risks for Japanese companies looking to continue spending on projects.

 

However, analysts warn that Japan’s long-term goals of carbon emission reduction

in its energy sector will devalue future gas projects.

 

Yuko Nopuka, Chief Analyst at Japan Energy Research at Refinitiv, said,

“The short lead time of shale gas or LNG projects as well as the flexibility of contracts align

well with what major consumers, including Japan and Europe, are seeking in this age of uncertainty.”

But I believe that Japanese companies will generally hesitate to participate in gas

projects in the future, especially those that take a long time.

She said the main reason is the country’s long-term ambition to decarbonize.

 

Japan’s support for gas conflicts with findings that new gas investments,

which consist mainly of methane-causing greenhouse gases and

produce carbon dioxide emissions when burned for energy, may undermine climate goals.

 

 

 

 

 

International Energy Agency

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that new investments in fossil fuel

supplies cannot be made if the world wants to limit global

warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

 

However, gas investments have been profitable for Japanese energy companies, leading to record profits.

 

Other G7 countries, including Germany, have also spent money on liquefied

natural gas infrastructure after the invasion of Ukraine.

 

Japan also heavily relies on gas from Russia, its third-largest supplier,

especially from the Sakhalin Island natural gas project.

 

Due to this dependence, Japanese energy companies are keen to diversify gas supply

sources to involve Australia and the United States.

 

The CEO of Marubeni Corp, last week, said that Marubeni Corp believes gas

“will be an essential resource in the future.”

Tokyo Gas, the prime gas supplier in the Japanese capital with assets in LNG

and other fossil fuel types, praised the G7 language on gas and plans to continue

investing in gas infrastructure in Asia and shale gas exploration assets in the United States.

 

Eneos Holdings, Japan’s largest oil refiner, plans to invest 180 billion yen

over three years in oil and gas exploration, including additional development of LNG in Asia.

 

However, Japan’s declared intention to reduce carbon emissions

may mean that these gas investments carry some risks.

 

Climate and energy ministers in the G7 have also set ambitious new collective

targets for solar and offshore wind energy, and have agreed to accelerate

renewable energy, which could undermine gas demand.

 

The International Energy Agency believes that global gas

consumption has reached a high level this decade,

and data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance shows that

demand in the country has been declining in recent months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australian Gas

 

The vast liquefied natural Australian gas industry is attempting to achieve something

that seems almost impossible.

They want to lead the transition to clean and renewable energy while

continuing to invest in and produce fossil fuels.

 

The overall message from the industry’s annual conference was that

liquefied natural gas producers see themselves as the only ones leading

the way in the net-zero transition and are well-positioned to offer solutions that

simultaneously eliminate carbon emissions and meet the world’s energy needs.

 

Australia is the largest source of liquefied natural gas in the world,

although the United States and Qatar, their competitors,

are likely to surpass them as these two countries are expanding their capacities at a faster pace.

 

Australian liquefied natural gas producers also aim to develop new natural gas

fields and facilities while investing billions of dollars to decarbonize their industry

and develop new energy sources such as hydrogen and ammonia.

 

What the industry discussed at the Australian Petroleum Production and

Exploration Association (APPEA) event this week was a plan to continue business

as usual while intensifying efforts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

 

Meg O’Neill, the CEO of Woodside Energy, Australia’s largest oil and gas producer,

and the president of APPEA stated at the conference that the liquefied natural gas industry

is “not a passenger on the road to zero. We are the driver.”

The argument is that current and new liquefied natural gas should continue

because it is 50% cleaner than coal when used for electricity generation.

 

At the same time, the liquefied natural gas industry needs to invest in carbon capture,

utilization, and storage (CCUS) during the production and transportation phase

of the liquefied natural gas cycle to reduce emissions.

 

The CCUS technology challenge lies in its widespread deployment,

high costs, and the fact that capturing emissions from natural gas extraction

and liquefied natural gas production only removes about 20% of total emissions,

with the majority of carbon dioxide released during fuel combustion.

 

The industry also sees itself well-positioned to drive the transition to hydrogen and ammonia,

fuels that can be created from hydrogen and are easier to transport and store.

 

The oil and gas sector can also contribute to solutions that are still in the ideation phase,

such as carbon capture at the point of combustion,

as demonstrated in a power plant in Japan and liquefying carbon dioxide for recharging

in depleted underground reservoirs in Australia.

 

artıcle name Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

Three Musketeers of the Foreign exchange

Three Musketeers of the Foreign exchange, the foreign exchange market is one of the most interesting and complex markets in the world.

 

Topics
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
Natural Gas

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD

 

It is also one of the largest, with a daily turnover of over $5 trillion.
This makes it a very attractive market for investors.
There are many different factors that can affect the foreign exchange market,
such as economic indicators, political events, and even natural disasters.
This makes it a very volatile market, which can be both good and bad for investors.

The long-term trend for EUR/USD is still very much intact
and the recent move higher has simply brought it back to a key resistance zone.
This zone is formed by the 38.2-50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous major sell-off and as such,
it represents a significant barrier for further upside.

With that said, there are still plenty of reasons to be bullish on EUR/USD in the longer term.
The main one is that the fundamental backdrop remains supportive of a stronger euro.
So, while we may see some near-term consolidation or even a corrective pullback from here,
any weakness should be seen as an opportunity to buy into this market with an eye on further gains over the coming months.

 

 

GBP/USD

 

The GBP/USD currency pair is currently breaking above the key 50% Fibonacci resistance level,
which is a significant development that could undermine the long-term bearish wave analysis.
This recent move higher in the GBP/USD has been driven by a number of factors,
including increasing optimism over a Brexit deal and strong economic data from the UK.
In addition, the US dollar has been under pressure recently due to concerns about trade and economic growth.

As a result of this breakout, we believe there is now
upside potential for the GBP/USD towards 1.3500 in the near term.
This would be important to watch as it represents previous highs from earlier this year.
with the GBP/USD currently testing a critical zone that could determine the next major price swing.
A break or bounce at this level is critical for investors to watch.
On the one hand, a bullish continuation followed by a bull flag pattern indicates a wave 345 (orange) pattern.
This would mean further upside potential in the currency pair.

However, on the other hand, a strong bearish bounce could still indicate an
ABC (yellow) within a complex WXY (pink) of a larger wave 4 (grey).
This would point to more downside potential in the pair.

Which scenario do you think is more likely?
What are your thoughts on the GBP/USD at this key juncture?

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas

 

The market has been bearish on NGAS for some time now,
but the recent move up to the key -61.8% Fibonacci target has investors wondering if this is finally the bottom.
While it is still too early to say for sure, there are a few things that
suggest that NGAS may finally be ready to turn around.

First of all, the move up to the -61.8% target was much stronger than expected,
suggesting that there is still some buying interest in this market.
Secondly, the volume has been steadily increasing over the past few days as well,
which could indicate that more and more investors are taking positions in NGAS.
Finally, price action has been relatively stable over the past few days,
which suggests that buyers are starting to gain control of this market.
Of course, only time will tell whether or not NGAS can continue its upward momentum and reach new highs.
However, if these three factors are any indication of what’s to come then we
could see some serious upside potential in Natural Gas prices in the near future!

The NGAS has completed a 5-wave pattern in wave C of a larger wave X.
Price action has reached the -61.8% Fibonacci target which is a crucial level.
A bearish breakout below the support zone could indicate a decline towards the Fibonacci targets.
The bearish breakout could confirm a new bearish 5-wave pattern

One of the most important things to remember when investing
in the foreign exchange market is to diversify your portfolio.
This means investing in multiple currencies so that if one currency declines in value,
you have other investments to offset any losses.