Five Key Sectors Affected by U.S. Election Results: As the U.S. elections approach,
attention is focused on the potential impact of their results on the global economy.
Each candidate brings different visions and policies that could clearly influence key economic sectors.
The Five Key Sectors Affected face various risks and expectations depending on the election outcome.
Contents
Major Banking Sector
The most significant eight U.S. banks are preparing for new requirements
to hold more capital to enhance their ability to meet obligations during financial crises,
which could reduce the returns investors receive from stock buybacks or dividends.
Banks indicate that this new rule may limit lending to consumers and businesses.
The presidential election will determine the timing for implementing
These requirements and the additional capital are needed from these banks.
If Harris wins, U.S. regulators are expected to implement parts of the “Basel III” agreement,
a global regulatory standard developed in response to the 2008 financial crisis.
Major financial institutions, such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs,
Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and J.P. Morgan
may need to increase capital by up to 9% under a plan presented by the Federal Reserve last month.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence,
capital requirements may be finalized by the third quarter of 2025 if a Democratic administration takes office.
Isaac Boltansky, managing director at BTIG financial services,
noted that if Trump wins, the rule’s implementation may be delayed and eventually significantly reduced,
as Trump tends to relax regulatory restrictions on the financial sector in various areas.
He added that increased capital requirements generally reduce bank profits,
although it’s difficult to predict the impact on net income until all details are finalized.
Healthcare Sector
If the increased support for “Obamacare” is not extended when it expires at the end of next year,
revenues for significant insurance companies
like Centene and United Health could drop by $25 billion by 2026,
according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.
Larry Levitt, executive vice president of KFF, a nonprofit health policy research group,
pointed out that Harris and congressional Democrats strongly support extending the increased support.
At the same time, Trump and Republicans,
who have vowed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, do not prioritize this issue.
This support helps millions of Americans afford healthcare coverage,
and the Congressional Budget Office projects a 3.8 million-person decline in
Obamacare enrollment within a year if support is not extended.
Levitt added that the Republican party’s significant influence could reduce
pressure on the pharmaceutical sector to negotiate lower prices for Medicare.
Electric Vehicle Sector
Electric vehicle manufacturers, such as Tesla and Rivian, and traditional automakers,
like General Motors, have made substantial technological investments
and are counting on election results to support their trajectory.
These companies face challenges related to tax incentives for electric vehicle
purchases and emissions standards that encourage more low-emission vehicles.
If Harris wins, federal tax credits for new electric vehicles
up to $7,500 and $4,000 for used ones will remain.
However, as Bloomberg Intelligence has noted, if Trump wins,
these credits may be eliminated or reduced under stricter “Buy American” policies.
Trump has pledged to eliminate Biden’s electric vehicle support policies on “day one” of his term.
Although Trump has softened his stance on electric vehicles
since receiving the support of Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk,
he remains committed to criticizing Biden’s policies,
inaccurately describing them as a “mandate for electric vehicles.”
Sarah Bianchi, senior managing director at Evercore ISI,
noted that repealing government support for industries or clean energy incentives
for consumers would require Republicans to hold a majority in both the House and Senate.
The greatest risk is Trump’s potential executive power to reduce support through regulatory changes.
Retail Sector
Bloomberg Intelligence noted that retail companies could face a crisis if tariffs
on consumer goods are sharply increased under a Trump win,
which could reduce sales volume and profit margins, with the most significant impact expected on products made in China.
Trump has pledged 10% to 20% tariffs on all imported goods and 60% on Chinese products.
Trade tensions may lead to even higher tariffs due to retaliatory measures.
Retail is particularly vulnerable, as the tariffs cover a wide range of goods,
according to Henrietta Treyz, managing partner at Veda Partners, an investment advisory firm.
According to the American Apparel and Footwear Association,
imported goods comprise a large portion of products sold in the U.S.,
representing 79% of clothing and 98% of shoes.
Furthermore, according to the Consumer Technology Association,
90% of consumer electronics sold in the U.S. are imported-.
Based on data from industry trade groups, China is the main source of these imports,
providing over a third of the clothing, more than half of the shoes,
79% of laptops, 78% of smartphones, and 87% of video game consoles.
In contrast, Harris is unlikely to impose broad tariff increases like Trump.
Instead, she would focus on specific sectors, production lines, and export restrictions, Treyz added.
Although importers pay the tariffs,
the higher costs are ultimately passed on to U.S. retailers and consumers.
Energy Sector
Oil, gas, and coal companies are expected to benefit from a Trump victory,
as he plans to reduce regulatory restrictions and expand natural gas exports.
While a Harris win would bolster clean energy support,
Trump’s policies could threaten offshore wind projects and limit emissions from fossil-fuel power plants.
Five Key Sectors Affected by U.S. Election Results