Market currencies and commodities movements

Market currencies and commodities movements: This week, you will be awaiting many economic events
And the latest news on market movements in currencies and commodities

 

Topics
Economic Events

Gold

Oil

Dow Jones

GBPUSD

EURUSD

USDJPY

 

 

 

 

Economic Events

Tuesday, March 26

USD CB Consumer Confidence Index

Wednesday, March 27
USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, March 28

GBP Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

USD Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.

Friday, March 29

USD PCE price index

 

Gold

The Gold rose strongly during last week’s trading, by about 3.3%,
before it fell and closed the week with a 0.5% increase.
Gold managed to break through its historical peak at 2194 and reached levels of 2222.
After breaking through the downward trend line, the price is currently retesting the support levels at 2147,
and it is expected to resume its ascent again to the levels of 2194 and then peak at 2222.

 

Oil

The prices of West Texas Intermediate crude futures stabilised above $80 per barrel,
after rebounding from the resistance level of $83.50 and at a pivotal point on the daily chart.
A continuation of the upward trend is expected if the prices hold above this level.
However, if a confirmed break below this level occurs,
it is likely that a retest of the support zone at 76.05 – 75.00 will happen,
which coincides with the upward trend line since the beginning of the year.

 

US Dow Jones Index

The Dow Jones Index surged strongly during last week’s trading by more than 3% before closing with a 2% gain.
This came after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady at 5.5%
and hint at a 75 basis point cut during the current year.
The index reached levels of 39800 before dropping from the upper limit of the ascending channel,
expecting it to reach the support levels of 39225-39295 and then rise again.

 

GBPUSD

The pound stabilised below the 1.26 US dollar level, after breaking a support level at 1.2710
and is still in a sideways range on the daily chart that expanded during last week’s trading.

It is expected to retest the support zone of 1.2535 – 1.2500
before potentially rising back to levels of 1.2710 and then 1.2895.
However, if the support zone is broken, a further decline to 1.2340 and 1.2280 is likely.

 

 

 

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair rose last week by about 0.6% but closed the week down by 0.8%
as reactions varied after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 5.5%,
hinting at a rate cut this year but without a rapid pace
so as not to raise rates again in case inflation rises.
The pair reached support levels of 1.0795-1.0805,
which is expected to rise to retest levels of 1.0880-1.0900.

 

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair is trading at a strong resistance level of 151.70
after rebounding from the support zone around the 146 levels with high momentum.
If it breaks through the resistance and consolidates above it,
a continuation of the uptrend to target levels of 153.50 and then 155.00 is expected.
However, if it does not surpass the resistance level, a retest of the 149.00 level is likely,
and breaking below it could lead to a retest of the support zone again.

 

Market currencies and commodities movements

Calm Response from Major Grain Importers to Ukraine’s Shipping Corridor Closure

Calm Response from Major Grain Importers to Ukraine’s Shipping Corridor Closure

The recent closure of Ukraine’s safe shipping corridor for grain exports through the Black Sea has caught the attention of major grain importers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

Despite the geopolitical tensions and disruptions, European commodity traders have observed a surprisingly composed reaction from importers in the region.

In this article, we will explore the reasons behind this composed response and its implications for the MENA grain market.

 

Table of Contents

A Context of Disruption

Calm and Composed

Steady Supplies and Diversified Routes

Ukraine’s Export Potential and Importer Constraints

The Role of Russia and European Union Harvests

Conclusion

 

 

A Context of Disruption

Ukraine’s Safe Shipping Corridor

For some time, Ukraine’s safe shipping corridor served as a crucial lifeline

for the smooth movement of grain exports through the Black Sea,

catering to the needs of various destinations, including MENA countries.

However, the situation has changed drastically due to Russia’s withdrawal from the shipping channel agreement

and the consequent attacks on Ukrainian ports, leading to uncertainty and disruptions in the trade route.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Calm and Composed

Minimal Panic Buying and Price Stability

Unlike the previous year’s events, which triggered panic buying when Russia invaded Ukraine,

the MENA grain importers have chosen a more measured approach this time.

According to European grain traders, there is no frantic rush or panic buying on the scale previously witnessed.

While U.S. wheat futures did experience an 8.5% surge,

the most significant gain since the 2022 invasion,

prices are still far from the record highs of 2022.

 

Steady Supplies and Diversified Routes

The MENA region is home to some of the world’s major grain importers,

including Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco.

Despite the closure of the shipping corridor,
these importers have not rushed to issue new purchase tenders for food wheat,
indicating a sense of stability in the market.

One crucial factor behind this is the presence of ample grain supplies from other Black Sea producers,

such as Russia and Romania. Additionally, importers have swiftly adapted by diverting shipments to alternative routes,

like overland deliveries via Romanian and Bulgarian ports or utilizing the Danube River to access western EU ports.

 

Ukraine’s Export Potential and Importer Constraints

Despite the disruption caused by the closure of the Black Sea shipping corridor,

Ukraine remains a significant player in the global grain market with substantial export potential.

Estimates suggest that Ukraine can export well over 1 million metric tons of grains monthly via EU routes,
solidifying its importance in the grain trade.

However, some importing countries, particularly Egypt,

are facing economic difficulties and foreign exchange shortages, l

eading to cautiousness in committing to high-priced purchases unless absolutely necessary.

 

Calm Response from Major Grain Importers to Ukraine’s Shipping Corridor Closure

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Role of Russia and European Union Harvests

Russia’s prominent role in the global grain market cannot be overlooked. With significant wheat exports, Russia has played a stabilizing role in meeting global demand. Simultaneously, the upcoming harvests from European Union countries like France and Germany have provided additional options for grain buyers, contributing to a stable supply scenario. Given the wide range of choices available, MENA importers are currently facing no apparent supply crisis.

 

Conclusion

The closure of Ukraine’s safe shipping corridor for grain exports through the Black Sea has created ripples in the MENA grain market. However, major grain importers in the Middle East and North Africa have exhibited a calm and composed response, avoiding panic buying and maintaining stable price levels.

The availability of alternative routes and abundant grain supplies from other sources, including Russia, has played a crucial role in stabilizing the market.

While Ukraine’s export potential remains strong, economic constraints in certain importing countries are tempering their urgency to secure new grain purchases. As the situation continues to evolve, a watchful eye on market dynamics will be essential for importers and traders to adapt their strategies effectively.

 

FAQs

  1. Are MENA importers still procuring grain from Ukraine?
    While importers have not rushed into panic buying,
    some purchases continue through alternative routes.
  2. Is Ukraine still a significant player in the grain market?
    Despite the shipping corridor closure,
    Ukraine remains an important player with substantial export potential.
  3. What are the alternative routes used for grain shipments?
    Importers have diverted shipments to overland deliveries via Romanian
    and Bulgarian ports or used the Danube River to access western EU ports.
  4. How has Russia’s role influenced the grain market?
    Russia’s significant wheat exports have contributed to a stable supply scenario globally.
  5. Is there any indication of a supply crisis in the MENA region?
    Currently, there is no sign of a supply crisis in the MENA region,
    thanks to the availability of diverse grain sources and routes.

 

Calm Response from Major Grain Importers to Ukraine’s Shipping Corridor Closure