Expectations of a decline in Russian oil production

Expectations of a decline in Russian oil production

Expectations of a decline in Russian oil production in light of the expansion of sanctions by Europe against Russia.



Russian oil

China announced stimulus measures worth $44 billion to save economic growth.









Russian oil


Despite the period when Russian oil recovered in the face of European and American sanctions

the “Rystad Energy” group’s predictions point to challenging times for the country’s production sector.
This decline coincides with the tightening and expansion of sanctions put in place by these nations
against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.



Reports showed that despite the flexibility shown by the production
and exploration sector in Russia,
in conjunction with the sanctions,
the country has not yet come out of the danger stage.
Rystad also indicated that with the increase in the summer,
expectations indicate a production reduction of about 1.1 million barrels per day.
And recovery from it will be more difficult and will take more time.



And “Rystad Energy” said that it is still not clear how this maximum price will work,
what level it will be, and which countries will support the idea as well,
because even if the Russian side agrees to sell oil at a fixed price,
this will not prevent any A political decision bans crude oil
for countries participating in the initiative.



She added that the Russian side is obligated to deal
with the national economic crisis in addition to finding new markets for oil
and its oil products when the final European embargo enters the scope of implementation.



According to “Rystad Energy” reports,
exports of Russian crude became on a downward path during the summer,
as they fell to 4.6 million barrels per day in June
and 4.2 million barrels per day in July.


On the other hand, Russian exports of oil to Asia continued to decline due
to the proposed discounts for Russian blends, which were less than before
Russia’s losses from its exports are estimated between 500,000 barrels per day
to 600,000 barrels per day by December of this year 2022.


artical name Expectations of a decline in Russian oil production









China announced stimulus measures worth $44 billion to save economic growth.


China recently announced a plan to boost the economy
by injecting additional funding worth one trillion yuan,
which is going specifically toward infrastructure. However,
it is anticipated that this support won’t be able to undo the harm from repeated closures
to combat the Covid virus and the slowdown in the real estate market.



In addition to the 300 billion yuan already announced at the end of June,
the Chinese Cabinet on Wednesday approved a 19-point policy package
that includes 500 billion yuan for governments and another 300 billion yuan
that government policy support banks can spend in infrastructure projects.
by issuing special bonds from the share that has never been used previously on the local level.



These decisions had an impact on the markets,
as the yield of government bonds for years rose
by one basis point to 2.64% in trading on Thursday,
and the Shanghai Shenzhen Index rose by about 0.6%.


And in a statement by economists at “Goldman Sachs” that
the measures announced on Wednesday will not be enough to raise the overall growth
rate above the expected 3%, and that overall growth will remain sluggish except
for the main monetary policy easing measures due to the very weak real estate sector
and the turmoil caused by the controls to confront Covid.



The economists wrote in a research note

that this is partly due to the real estate sector,
which is still in deep trouble, noting that in previous monetary easing cycles,
the real estate sector played a major role in increasing the demand for credit among households,
companies and local governments.


And in the midst of the energy crisis caused by the drought as well,
the state has directed subsidies to state power generation companies,
which will be allowed to issue bonds worth 200 billion yuan,
and support will be provided in the amount of another 10 billion yuan to the agricultural sector.



Currently, due to the intermittent opening of the closures to confront Covid
and the stagnation of the real estate sector all,
the official target of the government’s GDP growth at 5.5% has been difficult to achieve.


Where officials have played down the importance of the growth rate in recent months
while adhering to the zero-Covid policy to eliminate infection,
as economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected that
China’s economy will achieve growth of less than 4% during 2022.


artical name Expectations of a decline in Russian oil production


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