Contraction of the Japanese Economy in the First Quarter
The Japanese economy contracted in the first quarter of the year,
posing challenges for the Bank of Japan as it seeks to raise interest rates from near-zero levels.
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The Japanese Cabinet Office released preliminary GDP data indicating an annual contraction of 2.0% from January to March, compared to the previous quarter. This decline was more significant than the economists’ forecast of a 1.5% drop.
On a quarterly basis, GDP fell by 0.5%, slightly above the expected 0.4% decline. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan’s economic activity, dropped by 0.7%, a sharper decline than the anticipated 0.2%. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of declining private consumption, the longest period of decline since 2009.
Capital expenditure, another critical growth component, decreased by 0.8% in the first quarter. This decline occurred despite significant corporate profits and was slightly more than the economists’ forecasted 0.7% drop. Moreover, external demand, calculated by subtracting imports from exports, subtracted 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter GDP figures.
Policymakers are looking forward to upcoming wage increases and income tax cuts, scheduled to begin in June, to help revive weak consumer spending. Additionally, they expect the effects of the earthquake that struck the Noto region earlier this year and the halting of operations at Toyota’s Daihatsu unit to diminish over time.
The Japanese yen has seen a sharp decline to levels not seen since 1990, raising concerns about increased living costs and additional pressure on consumer spending. The Bank of Japan took a significant step in March by raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, moving away from negative interest rates. However, given the fragile state of the economy, the central bank is expected to proceed cautiously in easing monetary conditions.
Contraction of the Japanese Economy in the First Quarter