Tag Archives: U.S. stocks

U.S. Stocks Rise for a Second Week as Tariff Fears Recede

U.S. Stocks Rise for a Second Week as Tariff Fears Recede: Growing risk appetite across Wall Street
helped drive the S&P 500 to its longest winning streak in two decades,
As the impact of April’s tariff shock faded, new signs emerged of improving
Diplomatic relations between the United States and China.

 

Contents

Index Performance

Jobs and the Economy

Warnings Against Excessive Optimism

U.S. Corporate Earnings

 

 

 

 

Index Performance

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbed more than 1% each on Friday,
marking their second consecutive week of gains.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index declined, and U.S. Treasury bonds fell,
causing the yield on the 2-year notes to be
The most sensitive to monetary policy—
to rise by over 10 basis points, reaching 3.83%.

In the commodities market, oil prices fell as OPEC+ discussed the possibility of another significant production increase.
At the same time, demand for safe-haven assets weakened, pushing gold prices lower for the second week in a row.

 

Jobs and the Economy

A jobs report released on Friday showed a relative slowdown in the U.S. labor market

and highlighted the market’s continued resilience.
This helped ease fears that President Donald Trump’s policies could negatively impact the U.S. economy.
Recent developments also point to reduced trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac in Paris, said:

“It seems we may have reached the peak of policy uncertainty.
Talks are ongoing, and Trump appears to have eased some of his stances.
Adding to a relatively joyous earnings season, the overall picture is not bad.”

 

Warnings Against Excessive Optimism

Despite the recent rise, some analysts warned that the worst may not be over.
A veteran technical strategist, Tom DeMark, stated that U.S. stocks might face a new decline,
potentially pushing the indexes into bear market territory in the coming months.

Lawrence Creatura, a fund manager at PRSPCTV Capital,
said it is still too early to determine the exact impact of tariffs on U.S. companies.

Creatura added:

“Many people expected an economic disaster based on the liberation day and the following events.
And every time that disaster doesn’t happen, it’s seen as good news.
But it’s probably too early. Many of the issues people fear haven’t yet appeared in the data.”

He pointed out that most companies report first-quarter earnings for March 31, before Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement.

In a related development, China announced that it is considering resuming trade talks with the U.S.,
A report indicated that Beijing has started exempting some American goods from tariffs.

 

 

 

 

U.S. Corporate Earnings

Despite the pressure caused by weak earnings from Apple and Amazon, markets recovered from the impact by Friday.

Two analysts downgraded their recommendations for Apple’s stock following the company’s earnings release,
which intensified concerns over tariffs and future growth potential.
The stock dropped by 3.7%, losing about 18% of its value since the beginning of the year.

As for Amazon, it announced expectations for a more challenging business environment in the coming months.
Although it reported solid Q1 results on Thursday, the company warned that current
quarter operating profits could fall below Wall Street expectations,
leading to a decline in its share price by the end of trading.

 

 

U.S. Stocks Rise for a Second Week as Tariff Fears Recede

U.S. Stocks Slide on Economic and Trade Uncertainty

U.S. Stocks Slide on Economic and Trade Uncertainty:
U.S. stocks declined during yesterday’s trading session, impacted by data indicating
a slowdown in manufacturing activity in the United States
and the approaching implementation of tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports.

 

Contents

U.S. Stock Market Decline

Trump Signs an Order

Energy Information Administration Report

 

 

 

U.S. Stocks Slide on Economic and Trade Uncertainty

U.S. stocks fell sharply during yesterday’s trading session,
affected by data showing a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing activity
and the imminent implementation of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.95%, or 415 points, to 43,425 points.
The S&P 500 declined 0.9%, or 55 points, to 5,899 points,
while the Nasdaq Composite saw a 1.4% drop, or 265 points, to 18,581 points.

Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
revealed that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 points in February,
down from 50.9 in January.
The employment sub-index marked its first contraction in eight months,
raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown in the U.S.

These stock market declines come amid uncertainty regarding future economic growth,
especially with the upcoming 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods.
Rising tensions between Washington and Kyiv have also led investors to reduce their risk exposure.

 

Trump Signs Order to Increase Tariffs on China and Maintains Duties on Canada and Mexico

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs
on Chinese imports to 20%, accusing Beijing of failing to combat fentanyl trafficking.
A White House post on the X platform stated that this decision raises tariffs
from 10% to 20%, fulfilling a previous promise made by Trump.

Trump also confirmed that Mexico and Canada cannot avoid the tariffs set to take effect within hours.
These 25% tariffs had been temporarily suspended after both countries committed
to tightening border controls and reducing fentanyl smuggling.
However, Trump argues that these commitments have not been fully implemented.

The United States is a key trading partner for Canada, China, and Mexico,
but the most significant impact of these measures is expected to fall on its North American neighbors.
As the world’s second-largest economy, China may have more capacity to absorb the consequences.

Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly described Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods
as an “existential threat” to her country, warning that “thousands of jobs in Canada are at risk.”

 

 

 

Energy Information Administration: U.S. Fuel Stockpiles to Hit 25-Year Low in 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecasted a sharp decline
in the country’s inventories of the three major fuel types—gasoline,
distillates, and jet fuel—in 2026, reaching the lowest levels since 2000.

According to the EIA’s official report, fuel stockpiles are expected to drop to 375 million
barrels by the end of next year, compared to 358 million barrels in 2000.
This decline is attributed to reduced petroleum product output
in the U.S. following the closure of two refineries, alongside rising demand in 2026.

According to EIA data, U.S. gasoline consumption will decline
by around 1% next year after remaining stable in 2025,
while jet fuel consumption will reach an all-time high.

U.S. Stocks Slide on Economic and Trade Uncertainty

U.S. Stocks Rise Ahead of Key Decisions and Major Tech Earnings

U.S. Stocks Rise Ahead of Key Decisions and Major Tech Earnings: The U.S. markets are experiencing significant anticipation ahead
of crucial decisions by the Federal Reserve and the announcement
of earnings data from four major technology companies valued at around $10 trillion.
These developments will significantly impact market trends and stock movements in the coming period.

 

Contents
 Shift in Stock Preferences

Collective Stock Performance

Interest Rate Expectations

Developments in Technology Companies

Review of Corporate Earnings

Future Market Trends

Conclusion

 

 

 

 

Shift in Stock Preferences

The shift in stock preferences has led the Nasdaq 100 index to the brink of correction,
with large tech stocks rising while small stocks fell after gaining up to 10% in July.
Investors await the earnings results of Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon,
which will be crucial in guiding the market after a disappointing start to the major companies’ earnings season.

 

Collective Stock Performance

The S&P 500 index stabilized near the 5,470-point level,
while large-cap companies’ “Magnificent Seven” index rose 1.4%.
Conversely, the Russell 2000 index of small companies fell by 1.3%.
Tesla’s stock surged after a positive recommendation from Morgan Stanley,
while McDonald’s shares declined despite a drop in sales as the company pledged to launch new promotions.

 

Interest Rate Expectations

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next Wednesday.
However, investors see signs of a potential move in September,
with increasing risks from a weakening but still strong labor market.
Interest rate decisions in Japan and the United Kingdom will also be closely monitored.

 

 

 

 

Developments in Technology Companies

Experts noted that the dominance of a few technology companies this year is not related to Silicon Valley tech dreams
but rather to new developments and trends.
According to Bank of America analyses, S&P 500 companies that exceeded Wall Street estimates
The next day, in terms of sales and earnings, it outperformed the U.S. stock index by 2.4 percentage points.

 

Review of Corporate Earnings

The bleak expectations for U.S. corporate earnings negatively affect economy-linked stocks,
as investors worry about the impact of falling inflation on pricing power.
Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley pointed out that a measure tracking earnings upgrades
versus downgrades has weakened, which is typical for this time of year.

 

Future Market Trends

After a robust first half of 2024, traders should temper their optimism about stock market gains in the coming months.
Data from SentimenTrader indicates that most key indicators have been in danger territory for 182 consecutive days,
nearing a level last seen during the meme stock frenzy in 2021.

 

Conclusion

Recent developments indicate that global markets are undergoing significant transformations,
which require investors and traders to monitor them continuously and make strategic decisions
based on precise analyses of economic data and major corporate earnings.

 

U.S. Stocks Rise Ahead of Key Decisions and Major Tech Earnings

U.S. Stocks Reach Record Levels Ignoring Trump’s Assassination Attempt

U.S. Stocks Reach Record Levels Ignoring Trump’s Assassination Attempt: U.S. stocks surged to all-time highs as market volatility expectations
failed after the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, which boosted his chances of reaching the White House.
Trump has chosen Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate for the presidential election.

Contents

Jerome Powell’s Statements

A New Generation of Republicans

Major Stock Indices Rise

U.S. Bonds Rise

Analysts Reactions

Performance of Major Companies

Neil Dutta’s Comments

Greater Focus on Inflation Data

Electoral Impacts

Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Winning Chances

Republican National Convention

 

 

 

 

Jerome Powell’s Statements

Traders also closely monitored statements from Jerome Powell,
who noted that recent inflation readings had bolstered confidence and that the economy was performing “extremely well.”
He also pointed out that the labor market was heading towards better balance and that
the time lag between adopting monetary policy and its effects meant that the Fed could intervene before inflation reached 2%.
The Fed Chairman also clearly refused to signal any timing for interest rate cuts, stating that the policy was tight “but not overly so.”

 

A New Generation of Republicans

Vance, 39, is nearly four decades younger than the 78-year-old Trump.
He is a fresh voice contributing to the Republicans’ efforts and enhancing their appeal to the working class,
which previously formed a core base for the Democratic Party in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

 

Major Stock Indices Rise

All major stock indices rose, with the S&P 500 achieving its 38th record high this year.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp’s stock jumped by 30%.
The candidate’s chances boosted the positions of oil producers, weapons manufacturers, and private prisons.
His support for cryptocurrencies raised the value of Bitcoin and companies in the industry.
Tesla’s stock soared as Elon Musk endorsed Trump.
Solar energy and marijuana company stocks fell as Democrats became more supportive of these sectors.

 

U.S. Bonds Rise

Yields on 30-year U.S. bonds rose above those of 2-year bonds for the first time since January,
betting that Trump would adopt an expansionary fiscal policy if he won the U.S. presidential election in November. The dollar rose slightly.

 

 

 

 

 

Analysts Reactions

John Stoltzfus from Oppenheimer Asset Management said,
“We were shocked by the assassination attempt on former President Trump,
but we believe the markets will absorb the news quickly and without much fuss.
Shocking events do not deter investors; we expect them to remain focused on economic outcomes and earnings reports.”

 

Performance of Major Companies

The S&P 500 index rose to around 5630 points. The performance of major companies varied.
Apple shares peaked after Morgan Stanley classified it as the top pick.

Nvidia shares declined. The Russell 2000 index of small companies rose by 2%.
Goldman Sachs shares rose as earnings exceeded plans to reduce the pace of share buybacks.
Macy’s Inc. shares fell after the company ended acquisition talks.

 

Neil Dutta’s Comments

Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro Research said,
“The only reason for not cutting interest rates in July is the illogical mindset followed by institutions when they say:
‘Well, we need to prepare the markets for that.’ I don’t understand it, but that is the case.”

 

Greater Focus on Inflation Data

Mark McCormick at TD Securities believes the markets are “less concerned with the elections”
and more eager to enjoy the decline in U.S. data surprises, especially the recent Consumer Price Index reading.

 

Electoral Impacts

Peter Boockvar from The Boock Report said, “Everyone is trading on their best Trump-related strategies—
but I think we’ve seen over the past century that stock market movements are more random than a president can impose.”

 

Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Winning Chances

According to PredictIt data, the chances of the potential Republican candidate,
who was shot during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, winning a second term has increased following the attack.

 

Republican National Convention

The Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, held from Monday to Thursday,
marked the culmination of Trump’s control over the party. According to a post on the social media site X,
the former U.S. president told Fox News that he would announce his vice-presidential pick today.

 

U.S. Stocks Reach Record Levels Ignoring Trump’s Assassination Attempt

S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic Levels with Support from Nvidia

S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic Levels with Support from Nvidia: The S&P 500 index is approaching the 5490-point level,
marking the 31st record high this year.
In this context, 10-year Treasury yields fell seven basis points to 4.21%.
Bank of America’s institutional clients continued to invest in U.S. stocks for the second consecutive week.

 

Content

Rising Semiconductor Stocks

Bond Rally

Mixed Data

Infusion of Funds into the Stock Market

Hedging Against Risks

 

 

 

 

Rising Semiconductor Stocks

The rise in semiconductor stocks has driven Wall Street stock indices to another record high,
with traders betting that the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts will continue
to fuel the industry that has boosted the stock market this year.
The S&P 500 index approached the historic 5500-point level.
Nvidia became the most valuable company in the world, surpassing Microsoft and extending its record stock gains for the year.
An optimistic analyst predicted that the company’s value, which is at the heart of the AI boom,
could reach nearly $5 trillion next year, up from about $3.3 trillion.

 

Bond Rally

Bonds surged as traders flocked to buy $13 billion worth of 20-year Treasury bonds.
Wall Street saw the release of mixed economic data showing increased U.S. industrial production,
supported by a broad-based recovery in factory output. Retail sales rose sharply, with previous months’ figures being revised downward.
Federal Reserve officials emphasized the need for evidence that inflation has subsided before cutting interest rates.

 

 

Mixed Data

Anthony Saglimbene of Ameriprise said, “Investors should look at the half-full glass but recognize macroeconomic conditions,
as well as the nuances between corporate and consumer earnings and incoming economic data,
may develop in ways that could lower asset prices in the near term.”
The S&P 500 index is approaching the 5490-point level, marking the 31st record high this year.
Nvidia’s stock rose 3.5% after Rosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann raised the target price
for the chipmaker to the highest on Wall Street at $200, up from $140.
Ten-year Treasury yields fell seven basis points to 4.21%.

 

 

 

 

Infusion of Funds into the Stock Market

Institutional clients of Bank of America continued to invest in U.S. stocks for the second consecutive week,
focusing on technology and social media stocks, according to strategists, including Jill Carey Hall,
in a note to clients.
Separately, a bank survey showed that global investors will likely continue pouring money into record-breaking stock markets.
When asked about the asset class that would benefit most from reallocating money market funds,
32% of participants chose U.S. stocks, 19% said the funds would go to global stocks,
and a quarter indicated they would buy government bonds.

 

Hedging Against Risks

There is currently little significant doubt in the market
that could curb enthusiasm for rising U.S. stocks supported by a small group of tech stocks.
However, some investors are increasingly seeking ways to hedge against concentration risks.
With the market hitting new records, this concentration becomes more pronounced.
Companies called “The Magnificent Seven” (Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla)
have contributed more than 60% of the S&P 500 index’s returns this year.

 

 

S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic Levels with Support from Nvidia