The Russian invasion of Ukraine is troubling markets Wall Street is rebounding and gold and oil are temporarily lower

The Russian invasion of Ukraine remains the main driver of markets, with investor morale shifting from moment to time,
depending on the latest developments

Evest follows market developments in the following report.



Gold is falling amid uncertainty

Oil falls after crossing $101

Expectations of a further recovery in Wall Street


Gold is falling amid uncertainty as stock markets rebound

Gold continued to decline with stock markets rebounding as investors remained in a state of anticipation and concern
while assessing the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions.

US stocks surged as conflicting economic data and uncertainty from Russia’s attack on Ukraine caused traders
to back off bets on the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates significantly next month.

There has become uncertainty in the possibility of talks between Russia and Ukraine,
with the Kremlin saying that Kyiv stopped responding after Moscow’s initial offer to meet in the Belarusian capital Minsk was rejected.

Gold traded lower on Thursday, having earlier approached its highest price since September 2020.

“There has been a shift in the price of gold due to a combination of a run-out of peak market momentum that predates $2,000,
concern that Russia may need to sell gold to support the ruble, and sanctions imposed on the market by US President Joe Biden,
” said Ole Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S.

In the meantime, Federal Reserve officials indicated that they are still on track to raise interest rates next month.

They stressed the need to confront the largest American inflation in 40 years,
despite the uncertainty that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict posed to the world economy.

High rates can affect interest-free gold.


Hansen remains optimistic

Hansen remains optimistic about gold, as inflation will remain high and central banks may struggle to control the situation hard enough amid the risks of an economic slowdown.

“The Russian-Ukrainian crisis will continue to support the possibility of higher prices for precious metals,
not only because of a potential short-term supply of safe haven that will recede and flow,
but more importantly because of what this tension will mean for inflation,” he added.

The spot price of gold fell by 0.8 percent to $1888.54 an ounce in New York on Friday.

The alloy for April delivery fell by 2 percent to stabilize at the US $1,887.60 in Comex. 

The spot dollar index fell by 0.4 percent.

Silver and platinum prices declined, while palladium declined after major fluctuations in the previous session due to concerns about possible supply disruption.


Oil falls after crossing $101

The price of oil fell on Friday after rising sharply early in the session due to concerns about potential global supply disruptions caused by sanctions against Russia, the main source of crude.

Despite rising to $101 per barrel, Brent crude futures stabilized in April at $97.93 per barrel, down 1.2%.
May crude futures lost 1.4 percent to $94.12.


US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $1.22, or 1.3 percent, to stabilize at $91.59 per barrel after hitting the highest level in the session at $95.64.

Brent crude rose by 4.7% during the week, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 0.6%.

Brent crude hit $105 per barrel on Thursday, the first time since 2014 that the price of oil exceeded $100.

Tens of thousands of people fled their homes after the largest attack on a European country since World War II.

Families stayed in shelters when Russian missiles bombed Kyiv on Friday,
and authorities asked residents to prepare Molotov to defend the city.


The response to the invasion

In response to the invasion, US President Joe Biden announced a volley of sanctions against major currencies and banks,
along with financial sanctions against Russia.

The European Union, as well as the United States, Japan, Canada and Australia, have announced sanctions,
including Germany’s move to stop the certification of an $11 billion Russian gas pipeline.

According to reports, major buyers of Russian oil face difficulties in obtaining bank guarantees or locating ships.

However, US officials said that the sanctions would not specifically target Russian oil and gas flows.

In addition to crude oil production, the state is a major supplier of natural gas to Europe.

Biden said that the United States and other countries are working to jointly release additional oil from their strategic reserves.

Despite calls by Washington for coordinated international equity to help calm the market,
trader and industry data indicate that China has increased its oil purchases this year.

Sources within OPEC + have stated that the deal has not yet been broken, and despite crude exceeding $100 per barrel,
they expect the group to maintain a planned production increase of 400 thousand barrels per day in April.

Russia will be part of the alliance of two oil exporters, as well as producers,
including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) 


Expectations of a further recovery in Wall Street after the new sanctions against Russia

Dow Jones futures will open on Sunday evening, along with Standard & Poor’s 500 futures and Nasdaq futures.

The stock market declined to new lows last week but then rebounded strongly,
as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued and Western sanctions increased.

Ukraine continues to face Russia’s progress, particularly near the capital Kyiv.

Germany supported the sending of weapons to Ukraine, a major transformation,
which also facilitated the sending of military assistance from many other European countries.

The stock market recovered considerably late last week with the relief that Western sanctions were not as severe as feared.

On Saturday, however, the United States, the European Union,
the United Kingdom and Canada agreed to suspend the rapid payment system for some Russian banks and target Russian central banks.



Swift connects all global banks in a network and handles payments worth trillions of dollars.

Banks will not respect payments or transfers from Russia without quick access.

President Biden did not take that step last week under the opposition of several European States.

But those European States now support more serious sanctions, an indication of how quickly positions move.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission,
said that Western countries would prevent a “certain number” of Russian banks from the SWIFT network.

The restrictions do not include energy payments, including Europe’s purchases of natural gas.

But many Western banks may choose to “punish themselves,” refusing to deal with any Russian financial institution, whether or not they are officially targeted.

The West will separately target the Central Bank of Russia, essentially freezing its external reserves.

These measures will put considerable pressure on Russia’s financial system and economy.

The White House also said that America and its allies “will send a transatlantic multilateral working group to identify,
hunt down and freeze the assets of Russian and oligarchic companies subject to sanctions – yachts, palaces and any other illegal gains.”

Russia can respond by cutting off gas from Europe or limiting exports of crude oil or other major raw materials.

Just a possibility that could lead to higher commodity prices.