EIA Forecasts: Non-OPEC Oil Production to Drive Growth in 2025
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that non-OPEC countries
will be the primary drivers of oil production growth in 2025,
due to production restrictions imposed by the OPEC+ alliance.
According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook report,
the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach $73.58 per barrel in 2025,
marking a 3.3% decline from previous estimates.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil is forecasted to close next year at $69.12 per barrel,
a 3.5% reduction from earlier predictions.
On the global production front, the EIA revised its forecasts downward by 0.4% to 104.2 million barrels per day for 2025.
This includes a 1% cut in OPEC+ production estimates to 42.8 million barrels per day and a slight 0.1% reduction
in U.S. oil output projections, bringing it to 13.52 million barrels per day.
The EIA noted that increased U.S. crude oil production would significantly reduce net oil imports into the U.S. by more than 20%,
bringing them down to 1.9 million barrels per day—the lowest annual level since 1971.
In terms of demand, the December report highlighted a slight downward adjustment in global oil consumption forecasts,
now expected to reach 104.3 million barrels per day in 2025,
compared to earlier estimates of 104.4 million barrels per day.
EIA Forecasts: Non-OPEC Oil Production to Drive Growth in 2025
Stability in Oil and Gold Prices Amid Market Anticipation for Economic Stimulus and Global Developments
The stability in oil and gold prices reflects the global market’s anticipation of new economic stimulus measures from China.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to play a significant role in shaping price movements.
Oil Markets Await China’s Support and Geopolitical Shifts It’s prices stabilized on Tuesday as investors focused on expectations of new economic stimulus from China,
the world’s largest oil importer. Brent crude futures hovered near $72 per barrel after a 1.4% rise on Monday,
while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surpassed $68 per barrel.
The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo announced plans to adopt a “moderately easing” monetary policy,
marking the first official economic stimulus announcement in years.
This sparked hopes of increased oil demand in the coming year.
However, oil prices have remained in a narrow range since mid-October, with the gap between bid and ask prices narrowing.
Markets have been influenced by concerns over weaker Chinese demand, abundant global supplies,
and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has further complicated the geopolitical landscape,
creating a power vacuum that could lead to more chaos as factions vie for control.
This week, investors are closely monitoring critical reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration,
OPEC, and the International Energy Agency, which are expected to provide key insights into the future of global oil markets.
Gold
Gold Prices Steady Amid U.S. Federal Reserve Expectations Gold prices remained stable on Tuesday, with the ounce trading at $2,659, the highest level in two weeks.
Markets are now focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
Gold received additional support after the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves for the first time in seven months,
reflecting a strategy to enhance monetary stability. Geopolitical concerns, particularly in Syria following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad,
have also boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
The inflation data, set to be released on Wednesday and Thursday, will provide the Federal Reserve with a clearer view of the economic landscape before its final meeting of the year. While markets anticipate a 25-basis-point interest rate cut,
any signs of lagging progress in controlling inflation could delay this move.
In October, gold hit a record high of $2,790 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward monetary easing and
heightened demand for safe havens amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Despite a subsequent decline due to a stronger dollar, gold remains up 28% for the year.
Additionally, silver and palladium prices saw slight increases, while platinum prices remained steady.
Stability in Oil and Gold Prices Amid Market Anticipation for Economic Stimulus and Global Developments
Libya’s Oil Sector Achieves Unprecedented Production Surge in Over a Decade
The Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced today, Wednesday,
an unprecedented surge in crude oil and condensate production,
with total output reaching approximately 1.38 million barrels per day.
The NOC also reported that Libya’s Waha Oil Company achieved production of 335,000 barrels per day,
a level not seen in over 11 years, reflecting a positive development in the oil sector’s performance.
Steady Growth in U.S. Consumer Spending in October as Expected
Data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index grew by 0.3% month-on-month in October, aligning with market expectations, which also projected the same rate.
The previous reading for September had also recorded a 0.3% increase.
On an annual basis, the PCE Index rose by 2.8%, matching expectations that anticipated the same rate,
slightly surpassing the previous annual growth of 2.7% recorded in September.
Financial Assets
U.S. Financial Assets Reach a Record High of $6.7 Trillion
The value of financial assets held by U.S. money market funds climbed to a record high of $6.7 trillion during the week ending November 26, marking an increase of $26.8 billion, according to data released Wednesday by the Investment Company Institute (ICI).
The data revealed that government money market funds, which invest in securities like Treasury bills,
repurchase agreements, and agency debt, rose by $25.1 billion to reach $5.5 trillion.
Additionally, prime funds, which typically invest in riskier assets such as commercial paper,
increased by $2.55 billion to $1.07 trillion.
Investment Highlights:
Individual investments saw a slight rise of $1.1 billion, reaching $2.7 trillion.
Institutional investments surged by approximately $25.7 billion, totaling $4 trillion.
Libya’s Oil Sector Achieves Unprecedented Production Surge in Over a Decade
Historic Leap for Bitcoin and Oil Between Gains and Challenges The global markets are witnessing significant transformations with cryptocurrencies reaching historic levels
and oil returning to the spotlight due to geopolitical developments.
In this atmosphere, Bitcoin emerges as a symbol of economic change,
while oil continues to fluctuate amid international challenges and risks.
Bitcoin Approaches the $100K Mark Amid Major Political and Economic Shifts. It has reached an unprecedented historic high, hitting $97,000 for the first time.
This reflects growing momentum in the cryptocurrency market,
coinciding with political and economic changes aimed at strengthening the global position of these digital assets.
Unexpected Political Support Unprecedented support for cryptocurrencies has emerged in the United States.
Reports indicate that President-elect Donald Trump’s team
is considering creating a new governmental position dedicated to digital currency policies.
This move reflects a shift in Trump’s stance, previously skeptical about cryptocurrencies,
which he changed after significant investments in the digital asset sector in his election campaign.
Strong Economic Impact Other factors have bolstered Bitcoin’s gains, including an announcement by MicroStrategy,
the largest publicly traded company holding Bitcoin, about increasing its investments in Bitcoin by selling securities worth $2.6 billion.
The company’s digital assets now amount to $31 billion, positioning it as a leading cryptocurrency supporter.
Anticipation Rises Toward the $100K Mark. As Bitcoin nears the $100,000 threshold, expectations among investors and speculators are growing.
They see this level as a milestone that confirms Bitcoin’s role as a modern-era store of value.
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia,
said that demand for Bitcoin appears “unstoppable” despite potential challenges at this level.
Can Cryptocurrencies Overcome Criticism? Despite historic gains, cryptocurrencies still face criticism about their association
with money laundering and illegal activities and concerns about regulation and oversight.
However, Trump has pledged to create a supportive regulatory framework for digital assets
and proposed establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve,
which could enhance the U.S.’s position as a key player in the cryptocurrency market.
Oil
Oil Between Gains and Challenges: Geopolitical Impacts and Economic Pressures In another context, oil prices increased slightly as investors
continued to evaluate geopolitical risks related to Ukraine and the Middle East.
Brent crude traded near $73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude settled at around $69.
This came alongside a third consecutive weekly increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, though at a lower rate than expected.
Persistent Geopolitical Impacts Military developments in Ukraine and diplomatic discussions between the U.S. and Israel have influenced the market,
showing that geopolitical factors remain a primary driver.
Market Outlook for 2025 Forecasts suggest that oil prices will continue fluctuating between gains and losses,
with limited impact from fundamental factors, given expectations of an oversupply in the coming year.
Conclusion As Bitcoin continues its historic rise driven by political and economic transformations and
oil markets watch for geopolitical developments,
attention remains focused on how these factors will shape global markets in the upcoming phase.
Historic Leap for Bitcoin and Oil Between Gains and Challenges
The Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rates for the Second Consecutive Time Amid Slowing Inflation and Rising Unemployment
The U.S. Federal Reserve, in its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concluded on Thursday
decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points,
bringing the upper limit of the federal funds rate to 4.75%, down from 5.00%.
This decision was in line with market expectations.
It marks the second consecutive rate cut following a reduction in September,
the first since March 2020. The Federal Reserve based its decision
on recent economic data showing a slowdown in inflation,
nearing the Fed’s target of 2%, and rising U.S. unemployment rates.
Investment Funds
U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their highest daily inflows in history, led by the IBIT fund.
On November 7, ETFs saw a record $1.38 billion in net inflows,
the highest daily level since their inception, according to SoSoValue data.
BlackRock’s IBIT fund led with $1.12 billion in inflows, accounting for 81% of the total across 11 traded funds.
Fidelity’s FBTC fund ranked second with $190.92 million in inflows
after leading the previous day with $308.8 million.
Other funds included Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, with $20.38 million in inflows,
ARK’s ARKB fund is $17.61 million, and Bitwise’s BITB fund is $13.36 million. Total trading volume for Bitcoin ETFs on November 7 reached $2.76 billion,
down from the previous day’s $6.07 billion in trades.
Oil
Hurricane Rafael halted a quarter of oil production and 17% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico
The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported
that more than a quarter of crude oil and about 17% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico
were shut down as a result of the hurricane,
which hit the region on Wednesday, causing evacuations of multiple production and drilling facilities.
On Saturday, 490,241 barrels of oil and 313 million cubic feet of natural gas were halted.
The Gulf of Mexico accounts for 15% of U.S. crude oil production and 2% of its natural gas output.
Hurricane Rafael halted a quarter of oil production and 17% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico.
Unexpected Increase in U.S. Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Diesel Inventories
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased
by 2.1 million barrels in the week ending on November 1, defying analysts’ expectations of stable inventories.
Gasoline inventories rose by 400,000 barrels, contrary to expectations of a 900,000-barrel decrease.
Additionally, distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil,
increased by about 2.9 million barrels, surpassing expectations of a 300,000-barrel rise.
Arm Holdings
“Arm Holdings” exceeded expectations in the second quarter and announced a partnership with Meta to develop AI applications. The British chipmaker Arm Holdings returned to profitability in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, announcing the shipment of more than 300 billion chips since 1990. The company also confirmed its new partnership with Meta to develop a new generation of AI applications. Arm reported profits of $107 million, or 10 cents per share, in the three months ending September 30, compared to a loss of $110 million, or 11 cents per share, in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share reached 30 cents, surpassing analysts’ expectations of 26 cents, while revenues rose by 5% to $844 million, beating expectations of $810 million. Despite this positive performance, Arm’s depositary receipts listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker “ARM” fell by 5% after closing Wednesday’s trading with a 2.85% increase to $144.68.
Interest Rates
Mortgage interest rates rise in the U.S. as markets assess Trump’s win and his pledges to reduce housing costs. Long-term mortgage interest rates in the U.S. increased during Wednesday’s trading as markets reacted to Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election. The 30-year mortgage rate rose by 9 basis points to 7.13%, according to data from “Mortgage News Daily.” Investors are evaluating the potential effects of Trump’s financial policies, especially after he promised during his campaign to reduce housing costs, including mortgage rates. In a previous rally in Arizona, Trump stated his intention to lower mortgage rates to 2%, aiming to support homebuyers and enable them to refinance their loans.
Unexpected Increase in U.S. Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Diesel Inventories
The United States records a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion.
The United States recorded a budget deficit of $1.833 trillion for the fiscal year 2024,
according to Treasury Department data released on Friday.
This is the highest deficit since the COVID-19 pandemic,
representing an 8% increase compared to the previous fiscal year,
which saw a deficit of $1.695 trillion.
This deficit marks the third-largest in the country’s history, following the deficits of 2020 and 2021, where figures reached $3.132 trillion and $2.772 trillion, respectively, due to large spending on pandemic relief packages. One of the key factors contributing to the increase in the 2024 deficit is the rising interest costs on federal debt, which for the first time exceeded $1 trillion, reaching $1.133 trillion—a 29% increase. This makes it higher than spending on programs like Medicare and defense. Despite these figures, a Treasury official noted a slight decline in the average weighted interest rate on federal debt in September, the first drop since January 2022.
Oil
Oil prices drop sharply. Crude oil prices saw a significant decline in trading last Friday, falling by more than 2% due to increasing investor concerns about the future market outlook. These worries are mainly driven by a reduction in Chinese oil demand, one of the main factors influencing global prices. U.S. crude contracts fell by 2.22%, with the price per barrel reaching around $68.59. Meanwhile, Brent crude contracts dropped by 2.07%, recording $72.87 per barrel. This performance reflects the challenges facing the oil market, prompting investors to reassess their strategies amid growing pressures on demand.
The Federal Reserve
Bostic: The U.S. Federal Reserve will not rush to reach the neutral interest rate. Federal Reserve Board member Raphael Bostic made important remarks on Friday regarding interest rate policy. Bostic clarified that the Fed is not in a hurry to reach the “neutral interest rate,” which is the rate that neither stimulates nor slows down the economy. He stated that this neutral rate ranges between 3% and 3.5%. Bostic emphasized that the Federal Reserve will take cautious and measured steps in its upcoming decisions, taking into account the current economic conditions. He also stressed the need to adjust the interest rate in response to changing economic risks facing the country.
The United States records a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion.
Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the fourth quarter of this year,
raising its estimate by $5 to reach $80 per barrel.
In a note, the bank explained that this adjustment was due to increasing geopolitical risks.
However, it also pointed to the possibility of a growing supply surplus in 2025,
noting that current oil demand is lower than expected, while supply remains sufficient.
Honda
Honda to Recall Approximately 1.7 Million Vehicles
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in the United States
announced that Honda is preparing to recall approximately 1.7 million vehicles
due to an issue that could affect steering control in certain models, increasing the risk of accidents.
According to Reuters, this recall includes prominent models such as the Civic Type R, Acura Integra,
and CR-V from model years 2022 to 2025.
The issue is believed to stem from a manufacturing defect in the steering gearbox,
causing excessive internal friction.
Affected parts will be replaced, and grease will be redistributed or replaced free of charge by the company’s dealers.
Trump
Donald Trump Refuses New Debate with Harris
Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for the U.S. presidential election,
announced on Wednesday that he will not participate in a second televised debate against his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris.
In a statement on his platform, “Truth Social,” Trump said he sees no need for another debate,
despite offers from CNN and Fox News to host it.
He added that Harris has clearly shown she would not change President Joe Biden’s policies,
meaning there are no significant differences to warrant an additional debate.
Oil Prices Climb as Markets Await Israel’s Response to Iran’s Attack: Oilprices saw a significant rise after falling earlier in the week
as global markets anticipate Israel’s response to the missile attack launched by Iran last week.
This anticipation comes in light of U.S. President Joe Biden’s refusal to target Iranian oil fields,
which has heightened concerns over escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy markets.
Brent crude reached $78.19 per barrel after hitting its highest level since January 2023 last week,
while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $74.63 per barrel.
This rise followed Biden’s remarks suggesting alternatives to targeting Iranian oil fields, leaving the markets in anticipation.
Fears of Escalating Conflict in the Middle East
Iran’s attack on Israel has raised widespread concerns over the possibility of a full-scale war in the region,
leading to significant movements in the oil options market.
Despite these concerns, issues surrounding demand forecasts—especially from China,
the largest importer—and excess supply continues to weigh on the market.
Middle East Tensions and Their Impact on Oil
As Israeli airstrikes and limited ground maneuvers continue in Lebanon and northern Gaza,
instability in the region persists.
Iranian oil production has nearly returned to full capacity, but rising tensions may put these supplies at risk.
Market in Waiting Mode
Yip Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG Asia,
stated that markets are in “waiting mode” to see how the Middle East conflict unfolds.
He noted that targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure could push Brent crude prices above $80.
Moves in the Oil Options Market
Oil options markets are showing a clear bias towards buying,
with investors benefiting from the rise in futures prices.
Brent’s implied volatility gauge reached its highest level in a year
while fund managers increased their net long positions in Brent crude.
Goldman Sachs Predictions and Saudi Price Adjustments
Goldman Sachs predicted Brent crude could reach $90 per barrel if Iranian oil supplies are disrupted.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia raised its oilprices
for Asian buyers more than expected while lowering prices for U.S. and European markets.
China’s Economic Stimulus Policies
China’s top economic planner is scheduled to hold a press conference to discuss policies to boost economic growth.
Analysts increasingly expect Beijing to expand public spending as part of a stimulus package to support the economy.
Oil Prices Climb as Markets Await Israel’s Response to Iran’s Attack
Oil Prices Post Biggest Weekly Gain Since March 2023 Amid Supply Disruption Fears
Oil prices recorded their largest weekly gain since March 2023,
driven by escalating concerns over potential supply disruptions due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
However, oil pared some of its gains after U.S. President Joe Biden sought to discourage Israel from attacking Iranian oil fields.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to settle above $74 per barrel on Friday,
after climbing as much as 2.5% earlier in the day.
The gains eased following Biden’s comments at the White House, where he told reporters,
in reference to Israel’s potential retaliation against Iran after a recent missile attack:
“If I were in their shoes, I would consider alternatives to attacking oil fields.”
Despite the pullback, oil prices remained up 9.1% for the week, marking the biggest weekly rise since March 2023.
The escalation of hostilities heightened fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
The intensifying tensions between Israel and Iran, alongside Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen,
have sparked concerns of a broader conflict that could impact other nations in the region.
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, noted that while the chances of a worst-case scenario remain low,
markets are closely watching developments in the coming days, especially as Israel prepares for possible retaliation against Iran.
Rising Tensions in the Middle East
These tensions flared after Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel earlier in the week in response to Israel’s increased attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. In response, the Group of Seven (G7) called for the region to “act responsibly and exercise restraint.”
The Middle East accounts for roughly one-third of the world’s crude oil supply. Iran has been producing about 3.3 million barrels per day in recent months, making it the third-largest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). According to Citigroup, a major Israeli strike on Iran’s export capabilities could reduce daily global supply by around 1.5 million barrels.
Risks to Energy Infrastructure
There are also concerns that Iran may escalate the situation by targeting energy infrastructure in other countries or disrupting key supply routes such as the vital Strait of Hormuz. ClearView Energy Partners noted that a halt in the flow of oil through this critical waterway could result in oil prices surging by $13 to $28 per barrel.
Market Outlook
On the other hand, some analysts are skeptical about the likelihood of a significant market disruption. ANZ Group Holdings described an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities as the “least likely” scenario, pointing out that such an action could strain Israel’s relationships with its allies, including the U.S., and provoke a stronger response from Tehran.
Nevertheless, options markets have started to flash warning signs as investors bet on higher oil prices. West Texas Intermediate call options, which benefit from price increases, saw their widest premium over put options in two and a half years as of Thursday’s close. Implied volatility also rose.
The crisis has begun to affect the shipping sector as well, with the cost of chartering oil tankers rising amid the recent escalation. Iran has reportedly moved some of its vessels away from a major oil loading facility.
Meanwhile, commodity trading advisors, who rely heavily on trend-following algorithms, had shifted to net long positions in Brent crude by Friday, reversing net short positions that stood at about 55% earlier in the week, according to data from Bridgewater Research.
Despite this, some market participants remain cautious. Brent Belote, who runs the energy-focused commodities trading advisory firm Kyler Capital, remarked: “The underlying physical market doesn’t reflect the $7 gain we’ve seen over the past week,
” adding that “this could provide a great opportunity to bet on a downturn if tensions ease.”
Oil Prices Post Biggest Weekly Gain Since March 2023
