Tag Archives: Oil

Temporary Pause for the Dollar After a Four-Day Winning Streak

Temporary Pause for the Dollar After a Four-Day Winning Streak: The dollar index fell to 104.8 on Friday, pausing after four consecutive sessions of gains,
as traders continue to assess the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut.

 

Content

Key Events and Economic Data Expected This Week
 Oil Rebounds

Temporary Pause for the Dollar After a Four-Day Winning Streak

 

 

 

 

Key Events and Economic Data Expected This Week

In the United States, investors will closely watch the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index,
personal income and spending, and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials.
Additionally, attention will be paid to the second estimate of Q1 GDP growth, corporate earnings,
CB Consumer Confidence and pending home sales.
Globally, the focus will be on inflation rates in Germany and the Eurozone.
GDP growth rates for Switzerland and Canada will be released, along with unemployment rates in the Eurozone.
Key indicators to watch include Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index and China’s NBS Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
Finally, in Japan, the focus will be on Governor Ueda’s opening remarks at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference,
along with consumer confidence data, Japan’s CPI, retail sales, unemployment rate, and industrial production.

 

Oil Rebounds from a Three-Month Low, Records Weekly Loss

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 1.1% to settle at $77.72 per barrel on Friday.
Still, they recorded a 3% weekly loss as U.S. economic data strengthened expectations that
interest rates may remain high for an extended period, hurting the U.S. economic outlook and energy demand.
Additionally, some Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation rises,
according to the latest FOMC minutes. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed an unexpected
increase in U.S. crude inventories last week.
However, a positive note regarding U.S. gasoline demand reached its highest level in November,
providing some support for oil prices ahead of the U.S. summer driving season.
With the focus shifting to the rescheduled OPEC+ meeting on June 2 (previously scheduled for June 1),
market participants await potential extensions of production cuts by key producers to address global oversupply concerns and support prices.

 

 

 

Temporary Pause for the Dollar After a Four-Day Winning Streak

The dollar index fell to 104.8 on Friday, pausing after four consecutive sessions of gains,
as traders continue to assess the timing of the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Global PMI data from S&P in the United States showed strong business activity and increased price pressures in the U.S.
In May, coupled with the hawkish stance from the FOMC minutes, prompting investors to push back rate cut expectations.
The probability of easing in December has now risen to about 82%.
The dollar declined against the euro, the British pound, and the Australian dollar.
Over the week, the dollar gained approximately 0.3%.

 

Temporary Pause for the Dollar After a Four-Day Winning Streak

The Japanese Yen Retreats Despite New Warnings

The Japanese Yen Retreats Despite New Warnings: The yen’s value fell again to 154 yen to the dollar, giving up last week’s gains
even after Masato Kanda, the senior currency diplomat
the government is ready to combat unregulated foreign exchange movements driven by speculation.

 

Content

Oil Erases Gains to Hover Broadly

The Australian Dollar Retreats
The Japanese Yen Retreats Despite New Warnings

Oil Erases Gains to Hover Broadly

Brent futures erased their gains and settled at $83.5 per barrel on Tuesday,
not far from a nearly two-month low of $82.9 on May 3,
as perceptions of supply abundance outweighed lingering geopolitical concerns.
The Israeli military cabinet unanimously rejected a ceasefire agreement pressed by mediators and accepted
by Hamas before continuing its strikes in Rafah, Gaza.
Also, relatively weak supply in global markets prompted Saudi Arabia to raise the official selling price
of its light crude by 90 cents per barrel for June,
exceeding market estimates by 30 cents and increasing expectations that OPEC’s largest member
will push for production cuts extending into the year’s second quarter.

 

The Australian Dollar Retreats After the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Decision

The Australian dollar fell to around 0.66 US dollars, retreating from its two-month highs,
as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% in a move widely expected.
Still, it did not provide a clear hawkish message that markets expected.
The Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledged that recent progress in reducing inflation had
stalled and maintained its future guidance of “not ruling out anything at home or abroad.”

The Japanese Yen Retreats Despite New Warnings

The yen’s value fell again to 154 yen to the dollar, giving up last week’s gains even after Masato Kanda,
the senior currency diplomat said the government is ready
to combat unregulated foreign exchange movements driven by speculation.
However, Kanda declined to confirm whether the Japanese authorities were behind the
suspected intervention last week when the yen rebounded by up to 5.2% from its lowest to highest.
Bank of Japan data indicates that it spent nearly $60 billion to defend the currency.
During the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said
that interventions should be rare and consultations should occur,
indicating a lack of coordination between Japan and the United States on foreign exchange policy

 

 

The Japanese Yen Retreats Despite New Warnings

The key economic events scheduled for this week

The key economic events scheduled for this week: As we approach a pivotal week in the financial markets,
key economic events across major economies are set to shape trading strategies and market sentiments.

 


Content

Economic Events

Gold

Oil

Dow Jones Index

GBPUSD

EURUSD

USDJPY

 

 

Economic Events

Monday, April 22,

CNY PBoC Prime Lending Rate

Tuesday, April 23

USD Manufacturing PMI (April)

USD Services PMI (April)

Wednesday, April 24

USD US Crude Oil Inventory

Thursday, April 25

USD Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly) (Q1)

USD Unemployment Claims

Friday, April 26

JPY Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Yearly) (March)

 

Gold

Gold prices rose about 1.5% during last week’s trading after opening with an upward price gap
and amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and the military responses between the two,
leading to a continued rise in gold regardless of the rise in the dollar index.
Gold is trading above the support levels at 2358 and above an upward trend line,
making it expected to continue its ascent to reach levels of 2430.

 

Oil

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices stabilized around $82 per barrel near the daily demand area,
having experienced a downturn after an increase in US inventories last week.
If the support at $80.30, coinciding with the demand area, is not broken,
it will likely rise again to $87.60 and then to resistance at $90.
However, if it breaks downward with a full-day candle close below, a retest of the $76 – $75 levels is expected.

 

Dow Jones Index

The Dow Jones Index fell about 1.95% during last week’s trading before rebounding
and nearly recovering all its losses by the end of Friday’s trading.
This week, markets await the manufacturing and services PMI data on Tuesday and GDP data on Thursday.
The index now trades above the support levels of 37765-37880.
If it breaks the downward trend line upward, we can expect the price to reach 38470-38600.

 

GBPUSD

The pair exited the sideways range on the daily frame after breaking the 1.2500 support
with increasing bearish momentum and forming a lower high.
If the pair closes below the 1.2375 level and forms a lower high than before,
it is likely to fall to 1.2187.
However, if it rises again above the 1.2500 support and confirms by breaking the pivot point at 1.2580,
it is expected to rise to 1.2895.

 

EURUSD

The Euro against the US dollar closed last week’s trade up about 0.2% after a substantial rise of 0.6%.
Markets are awaiting German manufacturing and services PMI data
next Tuesday and the exact data for the US side.
On Thursday, US GDP data will be released.
The pair has risen from 1.0600 and is expected to continue this ascent to 1.0700-1.0725.

 

USDJPY

The pair rose during last week’s trading, stabilizing above the resistance,
which turned into support at 151.95 with declining momentum.
Stability above the 154 level will catalyze the upward trend targeting Fibonacci extension levels 156 and 158.
However, if the support breaks and a full-day candle closes below it,
we can expect a retest of the support area around the 146 levels.

 

 

The key economic events scheduled for this week   

British Inflation Decline

British Inflation Decline

Data on inflation published by the British Statistics Office on Wednesday showed that the inflation rate came in below expectations and negative during the past March in the United Kingdom. The consumer price index in the country slowed at a pace higher than market expectations, recording its lowest level since September 2021.

 

 

Content:

 

 

 

 

 

British Inflation

According to the data, the overall inflation rate in the United Kingdom was 3.2% in March on an annual basis, which is higher than the market expectations that predicted a slowdown to 3.1%. It is noted that the overall inflation rate had slowed down to 3.4% in the previous February.

As for the core inflation rate (which excludes food and energy prices), it also saw a slowdown in March in the United Kingdom, reaching about 4.2% on an annual basis, which is higher than market expectations that indicated it would record 4.1%. It is noted that core inflation had slowed down to 4.5% in February.

 

 

Gold:

Gold Prices Stability:

It prices consolidated on Wednesday after reaching record levels the previous week, partially affected by the impact of the high dollar and the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds, while the demand for safe havens resulting from geopolitical risks in the Middle East was compensated.

Spot gold prices remained stable at $2381.68 per ounce, after recording an all-time high of $2431.29 on the previous Friday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4 percent to $2397.70.

The dollar stabilized near its highest level in five months, and the yields of the standard U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 4.6591 percent, moving near the highest level recorded in the previous session.

 

 

 

 

 

Oil:

Decline in Oil Prices During Yesterday’s Trading:

Oil prices fell in early trading on Wednesday, with growing concerns about global demand due to weak economic growth in China and declining expectations for a cut in U.S. interest rates in the near future, overshadowing concerns related to supply amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude contracts for June delivery dropped by seven cents, or 0.1 percent, to $89.16 per barrel, while U.S. crude contracts for May delivery fell by ten cents, or 0.1 percent, to $85.26 per barrel.

Oil prices have dropped since the beginning of the week with the impact of unfavorable economic conditions on investor confidence, leading to a reduction in the gains made due to geopolitical tensions and the anticipation of Israel’s reaction to the attack launched by Iran earlier this week.

Concerns about demand increased due to expectations of delaying a cut in U.S. interest rates, as well as weaker than expected economic data from China.

 

 

British Inflation Decline

 

Key news expected to be traded during the week


Key news expected to be traded during the week: West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose Gold surged strongly,
and currency and indices volatility, in addition to the release of the most important reports awaiting you this week

 

Content

Economic Event

Gold

Oil

Dow Jones Index

GBPUSD

EURUSD

USDJPY

 

 

 

Economic Event

Tuesday, April 2

11:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (Annual) (March)

11:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (March)

Wednesday, April 3

17:30 USD U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

19:10 USD Speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell

Thursday, April 4

15:30 USD Unemployment Claims

Friday, April 5

15:30 USD Unemployment Rate (March)

 

Gold

Gold surged strongly during last week’s trading by more than 3%,
This month, it is breaking its historical peak at the 2222 level for the second time.
Despite positive US data last week, gold continued to rise due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Markets await US unemployment data next Friday.
After breaching the 2222 level,
gold is expected to continue ascending, potentially reaching the 2240 level.

 

Oil

West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose above $83 per barrel,
rebounding from an important resistance level and the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle
and above a pivotal point at $80.80 daily.
The rise is expected to continue if prices hold above this level.
However, if a downward break is confirmed, a retest of the support area at 76.05 – 75.00,
coinciding with the upward trend line since the start of the year, is likely.

 

U.S. Dow Jones Index

Last week, the Dow Jones index rose strongly by more than 1%
after rebounding from support levels at 39295-39225.
The personal consumption expenditures price index came out positive last Friday,
and markets await employment data next Friday.
Some downward correction is expected after the index reaches 39800 levels,
followed by a continuation of the rise.

 

 

GBPUSD

The pound stabilized around 1.26 US dollars after breaking the support level at 1.2710
and is still in a sideways range on the daily frame.
A retest of the 1.2500 support is expected before returning to rise to levels 1.2710 and then 1.2895.
However, after breaking the pivotal point at 1.2666,
a continued decline to 1.2340 and 1.2280 is likely if the support is broken.

 

EURUSD

The pair fell during last week’s trading by about 0.3%.
Positive US data was released last week,
The most important factor is the personal consumption expenditures index.
Markets await US unemployment data next Friday and the German consumer price index next Tuesday.
The pair is moving below the support levels 1.0800-1.0790,
and the downward trend from the current month’s peak is further declining to the expected 1.0725 levels.

 

USDJPY

The USDJPY pair is trading around a strong resistance level at 151.70
after rebounding from a support area around the 146 levels with high momentum
and above the 50 and 200-day averages in a rectangular continuation pattern on a 4-hour timeframe.
If the resistance breaks and prices consolidate above it,
we expect a continued rise, targeting the 153.50 and 155.00 levels.
However, if it drops and breaks the pivotal level of 150.85, a retest of the 149.00 level is likely,
and breaking below it would lead us to retest the support area again.

 

Key news expected to be traded during the week

Oil builds on a strong quarterly rise focusing on Chinese demand

Oil builds on a strong quarterly rise focusing on Chinese demand:
Oil prices stabilized after registering significant gains in the first quarter,
driven by hopes of a notable recovery in China and the associated increase in demand.
content
Details

 

 

 

Details

Oil prices rose this year due to “OPEC+” cutting supplies to push prices up and offset
the increase in production from outside the group.
The alliance is expected to endorse its current production policy at its meeting held online on Wednesday.
Also contributing to price support were Ukrainian attacks
on Russian energy infrastructure and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The price of Brent crude for June remained around $87 per barrel,
following a nearly 14% increase in the prices of the nearest-due
during the first three months of the year,
West Texas Intermediate crude exceeded $83.
March saw a recovery in the Chinese industrial sector, halting a five-month decline,
which increased optimism about improved consumption in the largest oil importer.

A note from Goldman Sachs stated that robust oil demand in Europe also helped boost prices,
noting weak US supply growth and the potential extension of “OPEC+.”
cuts until 2024 were also bullish factors.
Last month, the bank predicted that commodities would rise this year as central banks cut interest rates,
supporting industrial and consumer demand.

Trading volumes are expected to be low at the start of the week, as many economies,
including the United Kingdom, are on the Easter holiday.

Oil builds on a strong quarterly rise, focusing on Chinese demand.

Continuing Drop in Oil Prices

Continuing Drop in Oil Prices

Oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive day on Wednesday,
following a report indicating an increase in crude inventories in the United States,
the world’s largest oil consumer, and hints that major producers may not change production policy at the technical meeting scheduled for next week.

 

 

Content

Oil

Australian Dollar

Gold

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

May Brent crude contracts fell by 74 cents or 0.9% to $85.51 a barrel.
The May contract is set to expire on Thursday, while the more actively traded June contract decreased by 68 cents or 0.8% to $84.95.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery dropped by 64 cents or 0.8% to $80.98 a barrel.

Prices have declined this week after reaching their highest levels since October last week,
remaining about three percent above the average closing price in the first week of March.

 

 

 

 

 

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar fell after inflation data:

According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday morning, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% in February, below market expectations of a 3.5% increase. The index also rose by 3.4% in January, marking the lowest level since November 2021.

This data indicates that Australia’s inflation rate has stabilized at 3.4% for three consecutive months, the lowest level in two years, suggesting that the prices of goods and services in the country are stabilizing and approaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation target of between 1.0% and 3.0%.

These data reinforce the likelihood of interest rate cuts in Australia in the second half of this year, raising expectations of a rate cut by about 25 basis points starting from September.

 

 

 

 

 

Gold

Gold prices fell:

it prices declined on Wednesday due to the strengthening of the dollar,
but the precious metal remained within a narrow range as investors awaited further signals on the policy of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank.

The spot gold price fell by 0.1% to $2176.29 an ounce, and US gold futures also dropped by 0.1% to $2175.20 an ounce.

The dollar index rose by 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, gold prices have increased by more than 5% so far this year and reached a record high last week, driven by growing expectations of a dovish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and continuous demand for gold as a safe haven, in addition to central bank purchases of bullion amid geopolitical tensions.

 

 

Continuing Drop in Oil Prices

China bolsters cooperation with Saudi companies in the energy sector

China bolsters cooperation with Saudi companies in the energy sector
focusing on aligning initiatives with Saudi Vision 2030

Relations between China and Saudi Arabia are witnessing notable progress,
particularly in the energy sector,
as the National Development and Reform Commission of China fully supports mutual cooperation with Saudi companies.

 

 

Topic
details

Vision 2030

 

 

 

 

details

This support is part of joint efforts to achieve long-term strategic objectives, including exploiting investment opportunities and exchanging expertise.

Cheng Shan Jie, the head of the commission, emphasizes the significant importance of this cooperation, especially amidst ongoing acquisitions and partnerships aimed at expanding the investment horizon between the two countries. During a meeting with Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco, Cheng expressed his country’s welcome for Saudi investments, highlighting ongoing efforts to liberalize China’s economy and facilitate foreign investment.

On its part, Aramco is looking to enhance its presence in the Chinese market by developing its capabilities to convert crude oil into chemicals and is exploring new opportunities for partnership and acquisitions to support its global ambitions.

 

Vision 2030

The cooperation between the two countries also includes coordinating the “Belt and Road” initiative with Saudi Vision 2030, reaffirming the joint commitment to enhance strategic relations and cooperation in multiple fields, including renewable energy and bio-materials, with the aim of achieving mutual and sustainable interests.

In the framework of these partnerships, new agreements worth over $25 billion were signed, adding to a series of previous agreements that reflect the strategic depth and fruitful cooperation between the two nations, in their pursuit of comprehensive and sustainable development in all fields.

 

China bolsters cooperation with Saudi companies in the energy sector

Oil Continues to Rise Amid Geopolitical Concerns

Oil Continues to Rise Amid Geopolitical Concerns

In early Asian trading on Monday, oil prices increased, reinforcing gains from last week,
with a nearly 4% rise, amid expectations of a supply decline.

 

Topic

Oil

Gold

Dollar

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

Brent crude contracts for May delivery rose by three cents to $85.37 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate crude contracts for April delivery increased by ten cents to $81.14 a barrel.
Geopolitical concerns remain high as the Ukrainian campaign intensifies with drone attacks on Russian oil refineries at the beginning of the week.
In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday his intention to continue plans to penetrate Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip,
home to over a million displaced persons.

 

 

 

 

Gold

Gold Falls as Investors Await Federal Reserve Decisions:

Its prices are currently falling during Monday’s trading session, due to the dollar’s stability and investors preparing for a series of monetary decisions by major global central banks, including the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
The US central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 5.25% – 5.5% at the end of its meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
However, there is a possibility of continued signals for longer-term interest rate hikes due to ongoing consumer and producer inflation.
Traders now anticipate a nearly 56% chance of an interest rate cut in June.
Rising interest rates reduce the attractiveness of holding non-yielding gold.
Last week, data showed a strong increase in US consumer prices in February,
as well as producer prices rising more than expected amid higher costs for goods like gasoline and food.

 

 

 

 

Dollar

The Dollar Stabilizes as Traders Anticipate Japanese Central Bank Decisions:

The dollar stabilized today as traders await central bank meetings around the world this week.
The Bank of Japan is moving towards ending its negative interest rate policy, with attention also on expected interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve
In addition to Japan and the United States, central banks in England, Australia, Norway, Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Brazil, and Indonesia will hold their meetings, with most expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
Attention in Asia is focused on the Bank of Japan, where significant wage increases by major companies in Japan have raised expectations of the central bank announcing a new era by ending the negative interest rate policy, which could be announced on Tuesday.
The yen slightly retreated on Monday to 149.13 against the dollar, after reaching a more than week-low of 149.33 earlier in the session.
The currency has seen fluctuations in recent weeks, dropping to 150.88 last month, raising concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities.

 

 

Oil Continues to Rise Amid Geopolitical Concerns

Effect of Consumer Price Index on Gold Prices

Effect of Consumer Price Index on Gold Prices

Gold prices experienced fluctuations during Wednesday’s trading session,
following their largest monthly decline in the previous session.
This was attributed to concerns regarding the rising inflation rate in the United States and its impact
on the Federal Reserve’s decisions to postpone interest rate cuts until after June.

 

Content:

Gold

Oil

Nikkei

 

 

 

 

 

Gold:

The price of gold fell by 1.1% on Tuesday after data showed a strong increase in U.S. consumer prices in February,
surpassing expectations and indicating stable inflation.
This marked the largest single-day decline in gold since February 13 when data revealed consumer prices rising higher than expected in January.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.2% on an annual basis in February.
While the monthly increase aligned with expectations, the annual rate exceeded estimates, which anticipated a 3.1% increase.

 

 

Oil:

Rising Oil Prices Following Increased U.S. Demand:

Oil prices recorded an increase on Wednesday due to expectations of a global increase in crude demand,
including from the United States as the world’s largest oil consumer.
This was attributed to stable inflation expectations in the United States and the possibility of the Federal Reserve soon reducing interest rates.

Brent crude futures for May delivery rose by 36 cents or 0.44% to $82.28 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures for April delivery increased by 38 cents or 0.49% to $77.94.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) confirmed its strong expectations for global oil demand,
projecting a daily increase of 2.25 million barrels in 2024 and 1.85 million barrels in 2025. OPEC also raised its economic growth forecast for this year.

Despite a strong increase in consumer prices in the United States in February due to higher gasoline and housing costs,
there is a belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve may start reducing interest rates in the summer, indicating some stability in inflation.
The decline in interest rates boosts demand for oil.

 

 

Nikkei:

Continued Decline in the Japanese Nikkei Index

The Japanese Nikkei index declined for the third consecutive session on Wednesday as investors exercised caution regarding potential changes in monetary policy during the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting next week.

The Nikkei index recorded a 0.26% decrease, closing at 38,695.97 points, retracting shortly after surpassing the psychological support level at 39,000 points.

The broader Topix index also closed lower by 0.33% at 2,648.51 points.

Caution prevailed in the market ahead of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting, with many expecting the central bank to raise short-term interest rates from the negative zone, either next week or by April.

 

 

 

Effect of Consumer Price Index on Gold Prices