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China and India Lead Global Growth Amid U.S. Slowdown

China and India Lead Global Growth Amid U.S. Slowdown: Amid escalating global trade tensions
and the protectionist measures adopted by the United States,
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 2.8%,
compared to a previous estimate of 3.3%.
The IMF’s latest report highlights significant shifts in global economic power,
placing China and India at the forefront of countries driving growth.

At the same time, the report projects a noticeable decline in the role of the United States.

Reinforcing the trend of growth concentration in a few major economies.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 2.8%,
cutting it from the 3.3% projected in January.
This revision follows rising global trade tensions, which U.S. President Donald Trump intensified by announcing broad tariffs.

Although the U.S. temporarily eased some of these tariffs,
the growing uncertainty has prompted the IMF to swiftly reassess its outlook.

In its updated World Economic Outlook report, the IMF emphasized that China and India
will play an increasingly prominent role in driving global economic
activity in the years ahead while reducing its projections for the U.S. contribution.
The report also shows that just 25 leading economies will account for nearly 80% of global growth,
underlining how economic momentum is becoming more concentrated in the world’s largest nations.

Purchasing power parity calculations reveal that China will become the largest contributor
to global growth over the next five years, raising its share to 23%, up from a previous estimate of 21.7%.

Meanwhile, India will raise its contribution to over 15% by 2030,
whereas the United States will see its share fall to 11.3%, down from the earlier projection of 11.6%.
Despite this decline, the U.S. will still contribute more to global growth than the European Union,
and the gap between them will widen slightly in the coming years.

This trend underscores how geopolitical shifts and the ongoing trade
war are reshaping the dynamics of the global economy.

China and India Lead Global Growth Amid U.S. Slowdown

IMF Report on Global Economic Outlook

IMF Report on Global Economic Outlook: The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
has released its quarterly report on the global economic outlook,
indicating a slight upward revision in its global growth forecast for 2025 while maintaining its estimates for 2024.
The report emphasized that inflation will remain a key challenge impacting the global economy in the coming years,
projecting an inflation rate of 4.2% for this year, gradually declining to 3.5% by 2026.

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Report Highlights

Growth Estimates for Major Economies

Impact of Inflation-Reduction Efforts

Conclusion

Report Highlights

Global Growth

The IMF raised its growth forecast for 2025 to 3.3%, up from its previous estimate of 3.2%.
Despite this slight improvement, the projected growth rate remains below the historical average of 3.7%.
The IMF attributed this upward revision to improved economic expectations for the United States,
which has demonstrated remarkable resilience due to strong domestic demand and less restrictive fiscal policies.
However, this increase was insufficient to offset the slowdown in other major economies.

Inflation

The report highlighted a significant upward revision in global inflation expectations compared to the October report.
While the previous forecast for 2025 anticipated an inflation rate of 3.5%,
the current estimate has risen to 4.2%.
Nonetheless, this figure remains well below the peak inflation of 9.4% experienced in 2022.
The IMF cautioned that efforts to reduce inflation could lead to financial disruptions and fragile economic stability,
especially if monetary policies are not executed carefully.

Growth Estimates for Major Economies

United States

The IMF maintained its growth estimate for 2024 at 2.8% but raised its 2025 forecast to 2.7%,
compared to 2.2% in the October report.
This improvement is attributed to strong domestic demand and favorable financial conditions.

Saudi Arabia

The IMF lowered its growth estimate for 2024 to 1.4% from 1.5% and revised its 2025 forecast to 3.3%,
down from 4.6%.
These adjustments reflect the impact of oil price fluctuations on the Saudi economy.

China

In China, the IMF maintained its growth estimate at 4.8% for 2024
while slightly raising its 2025 forecast to 4.6% from 4.5%.

Eurozone

For the Eurozone, the growth forecast for 2024 remained stable at 0.8%,
but the 2025 projection was revised downward from 1.2% to 1.0%,
reflecting a continued economic slowdown.

India

India maintained strong growth rates of 6.5% for both years,
positioning itself as one of the fastest-growing economies globally.

Impact of Inflation-Reduction Efforts

The report also highlighted the challenges posed by ongoing efforts to reduce inflation,
warning that these measures could disrupt the accommodative fiscal policies relied upon by major economies.
It noted that financial stability could face increased pressure if monetary policy fluctuations persist.

Conclusion

The IMF report indicates that the global economy is gradually recovering, but significant challenges remain.
While countries like the United States and India benefit from strong local growth drivers,
others, such as the Eurozone and Saudi Arabia, face mounting hurdles.
Inflation continues to be a central issue shaping global economic policies in the future.

IMF Report on Global Economic Outlook

International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund: Global Public Debt May Exceed $100 Trillion in 2024 Amid Rising U.S. and China Spending

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global public debt to surpass the $100 trillion mark in 2024,
driven by increased spending in major economies such as the United States and China.

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In its Global Financial Outlook report, the IMF indicated that global public debt is projected to reach 93% of global GDP by the end of this year, and it could approach 100% by 2030, exceeding the peak of 99% witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Countries like the United States, Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa, and the United Kingdom are expected to see rising debt levels.
The IMF warned that delaying action on this issue could lead to negative market reactions and weaken governments’ abilities to manage their budgets during crises.

The report also noted that global challenges, such as the transition to clean energy,
aging populations, and security risks, have increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policies,
further intensifying pressure on public spending.
In the worst-case scenario, the IMF predicted that global debt could reach 115% of GDP within three years.