Oil prices rise due to US strikes

Oil prices rise due to US strikes: US strikes on Yemen led to a rise in oil prices, as tensions continue in the Middle East.

 

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the details

U.S. dollar

The reasons

European Central Bank

 

 Oil rises due to US strikes on Yemen

Oil prices rose as a new wave of strikes launched by the United States against Houthi targets in Yemen
perpetuated tensions in the Middle East and raised the possibility of long-term disruptions in global shipping patterns.

The global benchmark Brent crude oil exceeded $78 a barrel after closing lower yesterday, Wednesday,
while West Texas Intermediate crude approached $73.
US Central Command said the United States bombed more than a dozen Houthi missile launchers in response to the Iranian-backed group’s attacks on ships.

The crisis in Yemen has cut off transit operations through the Red Sea and Suez Canal,
disrupting trade flows, with ships avoiding the region and taking longer alternative routes.
The Biden administration returned the group to the terrorist list.
The Houthis say they are working to support Hamas in its fight against Israel.

Crude oil was hit hard in the first weeks of the year due to the escalating crisis in the Middle East,
in addition to fears that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later than expected.

In one sign that the global crude oil market may be tightening, the spot spread for West Texas Intermediate crude –

a widely watched measure of near-term supply and demand conditions – turned into a “backorder” state, for the first time since November.

Gao Jian, an analyst at Shandong-based Qixing Futures, said that if the current situation in the Red Sea extends,

there could be a short-term jump in prices, even though weak fundamentals have constrained oil since late last year.

At the same time, the industry-backed American Petroleum Institute reported a slight increase in US crude oil inventories nationwide,
although there was a decline in the main hub in Cushing, Oklahoma.

At the same time, data indicated an increase in gasoline and distillate stocks. Official data is scheduled to be released later on Thursday.

 

The US dollar has achieved its longest series of increases since last August

 

The US dollar continued its upward path for the fifth session in a row, today, Wednesday,
achieving the longest series of daily gains since late last August,
supported by the strong rise in US Treasury bond yields and the increasing possibility of keeping federal interest rates at high levels for a longer period.

 

The reasons

 

Positive US retail sales and industrial production data for December

Retail sales in the United States witnessed a clear growth last December by 0.6% compared to the previous reading in November,
which stabilized at 0.3%, reflecting the recovery in demand in the country and, consequently, the strength of economic conditions.

Official data also revealed that US industrial production grew by 0.1% last December,
while market expectations indicated a contraction in the index by 0.1% after the index recorded stability at zero levels the previous November.
This indicates the strength of US industrial activity and its Positive repercussions on the country’s economic growth,
and consequently, the dollar rose strongly in today’s transactions.

These positive data supported the Fed’s position to maintain high-interest rates for a longer period, long enough to declare its victory over inflation.
In other words, the markets seem to believe that the central bank will not rush to lower interest rates,
this was confirmed by US Federal Reserve member Waller in his statements issued last Tuesday.

which indicated that the bank is not thinking about reducing interest rates in the near term,
which reflected positively on the movements of the US dollar in the end.

 

US Treasury yields rise

The clear rise in US Treasury bond yields of various terms led to a recovery in demand for the US dollar in trading.
Looking at today’s transactions, we find that the 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose by 0.82% to a record 4.100%.
At the same time, the 20-year US Treasury bond yield recorded a record.

An increase of approximately 0.34% to 4.437% coincided with a rise in the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds by approximately 0.20% to 4.313%.

 

 

 

 European Central Bank

Supply chain disruptions are one of the top risks to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s

mind as she considers other consequential risks of a resurgence in inflation.

“The things I’m watching carefully are wage negotiations, profit margins, and energy prices,”
Lagarde told Francine Lacqua, during an event held at Bloomberg House in Davos on Wednesday.
“I hope that what I fear will not happen, but supply bottlenecks will come back again.

These are four main components that can “It could have a serious impact on our efforts to combat inflation.”

Other ECB monetary policymakers, including Robert Holzmann,
also viewed the Red Sea developments as a potential threat to consumer prices.

Monetary policymakers have reasons to be concerned. Supply chain disruptions that began during the pandemic were,
in part, behind the initial bout of inflation that occurred before energy prices rose in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Global trade faces a major challenge in the Red Sea, where the Iran-backed Houthi group
has escalated its attacks against commercial ships over the past months.
comes as the West tries to deter the development of events and avoid conflict Wider awareness of the Middle East,
a region already tense due to the war between Israel and Hamas.

 

Oil prices rise due to US strikes

Weak oil reserves due to geopolitical tension

Weak oil reserves due to geopolitical tension: With continued tensions in the Red Sea and geopolitical escalation,
the oil supply is at risk.

 

Content

Weak oil reserves

The US dollar achieves remarkable positivity

Reading US market numbers

China

 

 

Increasing geopolitical pressures and influence weaken the oil supply

Yesterday, Tuesday, the Greek-owned ship Zogrevia was bombed 76 miles away by the Houthi group,
and the US-owned ship Gibraltar Eiffel was also attacked near the Strait of Aden.
These attacks came from the Houthis weeks ago in response to the Israeli attack on Gaza.

The official Houthi spokesman criticized shipping companies,
saying that they only target ships belonging to the Israeli entity.
The official spokesman for the Houthis also warned in response to the British and American naval bombing
of sites affiliated with the Houthis in Yemen,

saying that the ships of those countries had become a target for them.

Tensions in the Red Sea are still continuing and the geopolitical escalation is putting the oil supply at risk.
This comes in light of the change in the route through which the ships will sail,
as they will be forced to cross by circumventing the African continent and avoiding passage through the Red Sea,
which is more dangerous for commercial ships, if it continues,
may It hinder the progress of the economy during the current year,
in addition to the weakness of the oil supply

We add to all of this the high cost that ships will waste
by changing the route and the length of the distance,
in addition to the high insurance costs, which have increased 10-fold to reach 1% of the ship’s value.
This means that a ship worth $100 million will have to pay $1 million to sail through the Red Sea.

 

The US dollar achieves remarkable positivity


US consumer prices presented positive results during trading on Wednesday, January 10,
with annual consumer prices advancing by 3.4%, compared to a reading that indicated positivity by only 3.2%,
while the reading for November was only about 3.14%.

Monthly consumer prices also presented a positive increase at 0.3%,
which is higher than expectations and indicated a provision of only 0.2%,
and this comes while the November reading was around 0.1%.

The US labor market data has proven excellent strength and reliability in light of high-interest rates about 5.5%.

US unemployment rates stabilized around 3.7%, contrary to expectations that indicated a rise to 3.8%.

Employment in the non-agricultural private sector provided new jobs,
providing a reading of about 230 thousand jobs for December,
which is higher than expectations and indicated a decline and providing only 177 thousand jobs.

On the other hand, wages grew to levels of 0.4%, an increase that may increase
inflationary pressures on the American economy.

Reading US market numbers

After the US Federal Reserve meeting led by Jerome Powell, Governor of the Bank,
last December of the year, it became clear that the Bank would begin
early reduction in high interest rates during the current year.

In this context, the markets began to expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting during March,
especially with the possibility that inflation would respond by declining.

However, the numbers provided by the American labour market and consumer prices
indicate the possibility that American inflation will rise again,
and the American labour market may put pressure on inflation and push it into a new upward wave.

Expectations have already begun to indicate that the US Federal Reserve
will be forced to lately reduce high-interest levels during the current year,
which led to a noticeable rise in the US dollar index to reach levels around 103.25,
equivalent to an increase of 1.2% from the opening,
and the price of an ounce of gold decreased from the level of approximately 2060 dollars.
It is trading around the 2018 dollar level, with a decrease of approximately 2.05%.

 

China achieved its growth target for the ending year

After China reached the economic target for the year 2023,
on which hopes were pinned for growth of 5.0%, today the gross domestic product reached 5.2%,
expressing that the stimulus provided by the People’s Bank of China
is bearing fruit without resorting to significantly reducing interest rates so far.

The most important data that contributed to the progress of China’s GDP was an increase
in industrial production by 6.8%, while experts expected a survey conducted by Bloomberg,
where expectations indicated only 6.6%, while an increase in investment in fixed assets by 3%, which is higher than expectations.
It indicates only 2.9%.

Economists expected that the target proposed by China last March was conservative,
but the increasing external pressures in addition to the contraction
in the real estate sector in 2023 represented a danger to reaching the target,
and only in this context did the stimulus by lowering interest rates
and pumping more liquidity leads to reaching the target of about 5 %.

The biggest challenge facing China’s economic growth this year
will be posed by the real estate and construction sector, and in return,
experts expect that the People’s Central Bank of China will implement
massive stimulus and further reduce interest rates,
which is what Premier Li Qiang said in Davos, Switzerland,
saying that the bank reached its targets without Resorting to a massive stimulus
or a significant reduction in interest rates,
which further supports expectations of the form of support that
the bank will provide to the economy during the current year.

 

Weak oil reserves due to geopolitical tension

Asian stocks rise ahead of the US inflation Rate

Asian stocks rise ahead of the US inflation Rate: Ahead of the U.S. inflation update and a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and the possibility of reducing them next year, Asian stock futures rose.

 

Topics

A week full of economic events

Asian markets
US Consumer Price Index

Japanese yen rebound

 

 

A week full of economic events

Today, Tuesday, the consumer price index in the United States will be announced,
which is expected to give Wall Street a sense of whether the deflation is continuing.
This is one day before the Federal Reserve’s last scheduled decision for the current year,
with high expectations for officials to maintain interest rates and announce a summary of economic expectations.
Here, the question arises about the Fed’s intention to ease policy expectations after aggressive investor repricing.

Charo Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Markets, said,
“If the CPI and Fed data confirm no rise in interest rates, this week could be the best for Asian markets.”
“It may also be key as participants want to pressure monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies to achieve the 2024 growth target.”

 

Asian markets

With the opening of Asian markets, stocks witnessed a rise. In contrast, stock indices in Hong Kong achieved profits,
as investors followed the meeting of economic policymakers in China to learn about its results,
which may indicate the size of the expected stimulus next year. While US stock futures were flat.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index was flat for two days.
Technology stocks were the best performers after the gains achieved by
their American counterparts pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to its highest closing level since January 2022.

China’s 2023 Central Economic Work Conference is set to conclude its work today,
Tuesday, with the meeting expected to release its conclusions.about the importance of a more proactive role in fiscal policy,
and it also includes more early financing of financing
and strengthening implementation to improve the effectiveness of policies.

 

 

 

US Consumer Price Index

 

The US Consumer Price Index is expected to stabilize at 0% due to the decline in energy prices,
with the monthly core inflation rate at 0.3%, according to economists.
In a survey conducted by 22V Research,
it was found that about 46% of the survey participants believed that
the opening price index will not have an impact on the market reaction,
and 28% are betting on a “risk off” event, and only 26% see a “risk off” response.

“The sharp decline in short-term inflation expectations was due to the recent decline in energy prices,”
said Anna Wong and Stuart Paul of Bloomberg Economics.
“This allows the Fed to consider rate cuts as downside risks
to activity and upside inflation risks become more balanced.”

 

Japanese yen rebound

Meanwhile, the yen rebounded from its biggest decline in more than a month on Monday
due to a report from the Bank of Japan that they saw no need to rush to eliminate negative interest rates.
The sale of five-year Japanese government bonds was achieved at a higher price than expected,
Indicates significant demand as speculation subsides
the Bank of Japan’s possible exit from the negative interest rate regime.

Producer prices in Japan fell in November to their lowest level in three years,
underscoring the Bank of Japan’s view that inflationary pressures are moderating.

“USD/JPY pared much of its December 7 decline,
“Bearish positions are easing as traders reassess earlier optimistic forecasts that may have been exaggerated.”
said Jun Rong Yip, market analyst at IG Asia Pte.
“This comes as Bank of Japan officials continue to seek condemnation
on the requirement for wage growth to be confident of meeting ‘sustainable inflation’ as the policy focus.

Inflation in the United Kingdom jumps to its highest level in four decades

Inflation in the United Kingdom jumps to its highest level in four decades

 

Inflation in the United Kingdom rose more than expected after it reached 11.1%,
its highest level in 41 years,
and this reflects the extent of pressure that the Bank of England is currently exposed
to in order to complete the process of raising interest rates.

 

 topics

The Central Bank intends to further raise interest rates

Warren Buffett acquires a $5 billion stake in TSMC

High inflation pushes US stocks and bonds up

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Central Bank intends to further raise interest rates

The consumer price index in the Kingdom rose,
as it came stronger than the expectations of the Central Bank,
which amounted to 10.9%, in addition to a signal from the National Statistics Office,
which confirmed the leadership of food, fuel, and energy prices for the recent rise

 

This is considered inflation now in the United Kingdom is five times greater
than the central bank’s target, which amounted to 2%,
and this paves the way for the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates,
while the central decided to raise the standard lending rate by about eight times
during the past year in order to confront The rise in the cost of energy,
while the bet is still on the Central Bank to raise interest rates
by another 50 basis points during the next month, by about 3.5%.

The pound sterling recorded an increase of 0.3% in its transactions,
reaching levels of 1.1900 against the dollar, after the issuance of this data.

 

 

Electricity price crisis

An increase of about 27% in the prices of electricity and natural gas
after a decision by the British Energy Authority that allows an increase in the ceiling of bills
with the increase in wholesale prices. Purchasing for consumers and companies,
while gasoline prices decreased by about 0.5% in the month,
after they were higher than a year ago

 

The market is awaiting the testimony of the Governor of the Bank of England,
Andrew Bailey, regarding inflation during the day, Wednesday,
but the Treasury Secretary is also scheduled to determine
the necessary measures for energy support by the government,
while Hunt said in Parliament that they are in the process of studying all these problems.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Warren Buffett acquires a $5 billion stake in TSMC 

Berkshire Hathaway, owned by billionaire Warren Buffett,
announced the acquisition of a stake worth about $5 billion in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing,
and according to the group, it has acquired up to 60 million shares in the company,
this had a great deal On the company’s shares, which rose after the deal,
and the investor, “Warren Buffett,”
believed that the impact of the losses of major chip companies around the world,
which amounted to $ 250 billion of their shares,
indicates that they have now reached the bottom.

The Taiwanese company is the main supplier of semiconductors to companies such as Nvidia Corp.
and Qualcomm Inc. It has also become the exclusive supplier of chips to Apple.

 

TSMC share price increase

The purchase deal in which Buffett acquired 60 million shares was at a price lower
than the current share price, which jumped to $72.80,
an increase of about 9.4% after the deal was announced.
This is the largest daily increase recorded on the stock in two years.
Warren Buffett was He always felt unwilling to invest in the technology sector
because he was not very aware of what was going on in it,
but this view changed in the late years after the decision to allocate
a larger part of his investments in technology companies,
specifically the chip industry, which is considered one of the most important sectors
that achieve a continuous growth rate over the years. Coming,
due to its necessity in the manufacture of many industries such as electric cars and artificial intelligence

 

And the shares of “TSMC” company had declined by about 28%
during the current year before the announcement of the deal,
due to the decline in global demand for chips as a result of the economic downturn,
the concern of investors, and the increase in supply,
while the company announced a decline in spending by about $ 36 billion during This year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High inflation pushes US stocks and bonds up

 

The recent results that emerged indicated that inflation had reached a peak
in the United States from the rise in US stocks,
with the increase in expectations of a rise in US stocks,
and the possibility of calming the pace of the Federal Reserve by raising interest rates,
and treasury bonds also recorded an increase with the decline of the US dollar

 

The “Standard & Poor’s 500” index achieved gains of about 0.9%,
while the “Nasdaq 100” index, which reflects the evaluation of the performance of technology stocks,
closed at its highest levels since the 19th of last September.
Stock prices rose, but the gains that were achieved after the special report were abandoned.
With Russian missiles that penetrated Polish territory, which is a member state of NATO

 

Oil and commodity prices recorded a rise that reached a peak due to geopolitical risks coming from Europe,
while Poland said that the explosion occurred near the eastern borders of Ukraine.

 

Market appetite for risk

The markets in recent days had reached a stage of appetite for great risks ,
contingent on the consumer price index data in the United States ,
which was issued less than expectations ,
and expectations also indicate that it will contribute with the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates ,
which amounted to half a percentage point ,
while A group of officials was able to worry about the pace at which interest rates are being raised,
but at the same time they are directing the bank to take more measures in order to confront inflation.

 

 

artıcle name Inflation in the United Kingdom jumps to its highest level in four decades

 

Japan’s $1.2 trillion in foreign exchange

Japan’s $1.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves is not enough to support the yen.

 

Despite Japan’s foreign exchange reserves,
which accumulated at a faster pace of growth at the time of Japan’s intervention
to save the yen during the Asian financial crisis,
this does not contribute significantly to supporting the yen,
but awaits a move on the US side.
Japan’s foreign exchange reserves reached $1.17 trillion
by the end of August this year.

the detail from Evest

 

topic’s

Tokyo intervenes in the currency

The global economy is under the tusks of inflation!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tokyo intervenes in the currency

It is expected this month that Tokyo is seeking to interfere
in its local currency as a result of the significant decline it witnessed
after reaching its lowest levels in 24 years.
This came against the US dollar.
The desire of monetary policy makers in Japan continues to keep
interest rates at very low levels,
which is contrary to the desire of the US Federal Reserve,
which always supports raising interest rates continuously to face high inflation.

 

The pressure of the US dollar

The dollar witnessed a significant rise during the last period against most currencies,
but the biggest impact was on the weak Japanese yen,
as it recorded a decline below 4.5 yen to the dollar in just two days of the previous week,
and always keeps the option of intervention from senior officials on the table,
and the yen recorded an increase at the beginning of Tuesday’s session,
but it quickly completed the decline again with its prices currently
stabilizing near the levels of 143.30 dollars.

 

 

American support

History has shown that the intervention of the United States contributes
significantly to influencing the trajectory of a currency,
and this is what happened in the 1998 crisis,
where Japan was forced to overlap with about 10%
of its foreign currency reserves estimated at about 21 billion dollars
in order to support the yen alone at the time.

 

Japan currently needs to intervene unilaterally as well,
given its commitment to the agreements signed with the G7
that allow markets to set currency prices,
and at the same time the United States justified providing any assistance

in this regard because it wants to tighten any possible interventions
in the forex markets last week,
which is contrary to what happened in the 1998 crisis,
and what is different in the current situation is that
the reason for the weakness of the yen is mainly due
to internal reasons to a large extent.

 

artical name Japan’s $1.2 trillion in foreign exchange

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The global economy is under the tusks of inflation!

Is there hope to get out of these difficult conditions in the global economy?

As for the current events in the world and the current economic situation,
the situation remains at the table of politicians
who are rushing to hold matters and control inflation,
which has become a nightmare of politicians.
Despite their attempts to resolve the crisis,
economists see that all attempts are short-term housing
that does not give signals of progress in medium and
long-term economic growth.

 

 

First of all,

if we want to happen, it is worth mentioning Europe
and the eurozone in particular,
its attempt to fight inflation and
solve the energy crisis was summarized in something
like quantitative tightening, but on the ground,
the European Central Bank revealed on Thursday the GDP,
which is likely to rise by 9.9% in 2020,
an expectation that I think is more optimistic than all expectations.
Tree Bloomberg Economics stated that progress will not exceed 10.4%
painfully for several reasons, the most important of which is the energy crisis,
but nothing stops the central bank from taking the decision to raise interest rates again.

 

Let’s track Thursday’s movement of 75 Almost a basis point
where European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said
inflation is still very high despite all attempts ..!

 

Japan’s $1.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves is not enough to support the yen.

 

Despite Japan’s foreign exchange reserves,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It was worth talking about Southeast Asian countries
because we found that trade was the lifeline for China,
which makes us look at its neighboring countries such as Japan and Korea.
We will find the fog dimming the scene and that
it suffers like the rest of the neighboring
countries from the economic crisis and recession.
Surveys of purchasing managers in South Korea and
Taiwan showed that manufacturing has

 

 

Although Chinese export growth slowed sharply in August,
imports barely remained on the right side of zero,
while Beijing’s strict strategy on Covid bears some blame for the outcome.
Which led the authorities to say that the Buti trend is a fair price to pay.

 

 

It is also worth noting that the Chinese economy pulled out of decline in 2015,
which brought the contraction to its course
with a difficult public confrontation followed by a very strong year.

 

 

Returning to the euro zone,

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted
his adherence to his hardline plan,
speaking of his need to act openly and forcefully,
opening relatively new horizons,
but stressed expectations of raising the level of 75 basis points
for the third time in a row next week.

 

 

 

One of the most mature views on crisis response was Brenard,
the most mature-minded member of the Federal Reserve’s leadership team.
Borrowing costs should become restrictive while risk recognition
will become more bilateral in the future and is expected to try to steer
the central bank toward a greater estimate of what is happening
outside the United States, she said.

 

 

As for the opinions of economists and bank presidents and governors,
the most solidarity is that the best way to protect the economy
is to contain the rise in prices in the medium and long term.

The insistence on raising interest rates by major steps drags us into crises
in more difficult conditions than the seventies,
when borrowing costs were eased early,
causing inflation to rise very significantly.
No matter how slow growth falters at the moment,
it is better than years of inflation.

 

 

Is there a way out of these dark conditions sweeping the global economy
and affecting all industrial and commercial sectors
and exacerbating the labor crisis as well.
Is this a tax that must be paid for the childish actions
of officials over the old days?

 

 

artical name Japan’s $1.2 trillion in foreign exchange