Labour Market: A Look into the Future

Labour Market: A Look into the Future, as we approach 2023, the future of the economy is uncertain.
With Twitter battles between bulls and bears raging on,
it’s no wonder that stock market reactions to inflation reports and jobs reports are so volatile.


Uncertain Economy
Taming the Inflation Monster
Ray of Hope: Real Wage increase









Uncertain Economy


As we approach 2023, the future of the economy is uncertain.
With Twitter battles between bulls and bears raging on, it’s no wonder that stock market reactions
to inflation reports and jobs reports are so volatile.
Despite all this uncertainty, Goldman Sachs has projected that the U.S.,
while not out of danger yet, will narrowly avoid a recession in 2023 – but what does this mean for businesses?


For starters, companies should be prepared for economic swings regardless of whether a recession occurs in 2023;
an unpredictable market can create huge opportunities as well as risks if you don’t know how to navigate it properly.
Companies need to have their finances in order before any potential downturn hits
by ensuring they have enough cash reserves set aside and debt levels are manageable,
after all, having too much debt can put them at risk during times when income is reduced
due to economic conditions beyond their control.


In addition, businesses should investigate ways they can become more resilient
against potential recessions such as diversifying revenue streams
or investing in new technologies which could help save costs down the line.
By taking proactive steps now rather than waiting until a crisis hits,
companies will be better equipped when faced with difficult financial decisions later on down the road.


Finally, staying informed about current events related to economics and business news is key;
understanding how different macroeconomic factors affect your bottom line
allows you to make smart decisions about where best direct your resources moving forward.
Whether or not we experience another recession depends largely
on our ability accurately anticipate changes within markets,
something only those who stay up-to-date with industry trends will be able to manage successfully.






Taming the Inflation Monster


The global economy has been facing several challenges in recent years, but one of the most pressing concerns is inflation. Inflation can have a range of negative effects on an economy, including rising prices and decreased purchasing power for consumers.
Fortunately, it looks like the Federal Reserve is taking steps to bring inflation back under control.

Recent data suggests that inflation will gradually drift downward over the coming months and may even return to its target rate by year-end.
While this would be great news for many people who are feeling squeezed from rising costs due to high levels of inflation, it’s important not to get too carried away with expectations as there’s still some uncertainty around how much further down rates could go before stabilizing at their 2% target rate again.

Rather than pushing interest rates higher to achieve more immediate results when it comes to tackling sky-high prices caused by persistent levels of inflation, the Federal Reserve appears content with holding them steady at around 5%-5:25%.

This decision reflects an understanding that drastic measures could lead to damaging consequences such as reversing any labour market gains or creating instability within international financial markets – something which no one wants!

In conclusion then; while we can all look forward hopefully towards lower levels if sustained price increases are brought about by elevated levels of inflation, it’s clear that patience will be key here as we wait for these changes to take effect fully.
We must remember though, that although progress may seem slow now, the Fed’s measured approach should help ensure stability throughout our economic system going forward.



Ray of Hope: Real Wage increase


2020 was a tough year for many workers, as wages didn’t keep up with inflation.
This meant that their purchasing power decreased, and they were unable to afford the same quality of life they had before the pandemic.

However, there is good news on the horizon! In November 2022, it was announced that real wage gains will be given to workers across industries for them to make up for lost ground due to inflation throughout 2020.


This means that average hourly earnings have grown by 5.1%, while prices of goods and services in the consumer price index basket have grown by 7.1%.

This increase in wages is a huge win for hardworking people everywhere who are struggling financially due to COVID-19-related economic issues over this past year or so – finally being able to catch up with rising costs of living can help ease some financial burdens off their shoulders and allow them more freedom when it comes budgeting out expenses each month going forward into 2021!

Overall, this news should come as an encouraging sign towards better times ahead; not only does it show how much our government cares about its citizens but also shines a light on how far we’ve come since last March when everything seemed so uncertain at first glance!




Gold Rises as Dollar Falls

Gold Rises as Dollar Falls, Gold prices rose on Tuesday, snapping a four-session slump, as the dollar retreated and investors awaited cues on the U.S.


Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path
The Fed’s Last-Minute Rate Hike
The U.S. nonfarm effect







Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path


The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its two-day meeting that ends on Wednesday,
but traders will be looking for clues on the central bank’s plans for future rate hikes.
A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies,
while higher rates could dent demand for non-yielding bullion.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,281 an ounce by 1007 GMT after falling
to a more than one-week low of $1,274 in the previous session when it dropped
below key technical support around its 200-day moving average.
Gold fell nearly 2% last week in its biggest weekly percentage drop since early July 2016

Spot gold was up 0.6% at $1,747.82 per ounce on Thursday morning as the US dollar stalled its rebound,
offering the precious metal a chance to find firmer footing around the mid-$1700 region.
US gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,748.90 as traders await further direction
from key technical levels and fresh fundamental catalysts.
“The US dollar’s stalling rebound is offering spot gold the chance to find a firmer footing
around the mid-$1700 region for the time being,”
said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity, from a technical perspective.
However, bulls need to overcome resistance at $1750 in order for prices
to target a move back towards last week’s highs of $1775.



The Fed’s Last-Minute Rate Hike


The government made a wise decision by making gold less expensive for foreign buyers.
The dollar has recently risen in value versus all major currencies.
This has increased the cost of gold for international buyers, perhaps leading to reduced demand and prices.
The government hopes to boost demand and keep prices constant by making gold more affordable to foreign purchasers.

The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting are due out tomorrow,
and traders and investors are eagerly awaiting them.
There is wide expectation that the Fed will announce a 50-basis point rate hike in December,
with rates peaking in June. This would be a major shift from the recent narrative of a “pivot” by the Fed,
which has been seen as bullish for gold prices.
If the Fed does indeed hawks swoop back in and disrupt this narrative once more,
it could see gold prices unwinding some of their recent gains and testing support around $1700 an ounce.

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints due before the December Fed meeting are likelier catalysts for bullion’s next big moves. Gold prices have been on a tear lately, hitting new all-time highs in multiple currencies. The precious metal is up more than 25% this year as investors seek safe havens amid the Covid-19 pandemic and economic uncertainty.

While gold could continue to rise in the near term, some analysts believe it could be ripe for a pullback after such a strong run-up. That said, key data releases from the U.S., including nonfarm payrolls and inflation numbers, could provide direction for gold prices in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.






The U.S. nonfarm effect


A better-than-expected jobs report could ease concerns about an economic slowdown and put pressure on gold prices as risk appetite improves. On the other hand, if inflation comes in higher than expected, it could add fuel to fears of stagflation and send gold prices even higher

“The U.S. nonfarm payrolls and inflation prints due before the December Fed meeting are likelier catalysts for bullion’s next big moves.” Said Tan

With interest rates on the rise, many traders and investors are wondering what this means for gold. While higher interest rates tend to be negative for gold prices, there are a few things to keep in mind. First, the Fed has said that they will be gradual in their rate hikes. Second, inflation is still relatively low. And finally, while gold doesn’t offer any yield itself, it can still act as a hedge against inflationary pressures. So while higher interest rates may not be great news for gold prices in the short-term, longer-term prospects remain positive.

Spot silver climbed 2.1% to $21.28 per ounce on Wednesday, extending its gains for the third straight session. The white metal was boosted by safe-haven demand as investors sought refuge from volatile equity markets. Platinum added 1.1% to $993.29, and palladium gained 0.6% to $1,876.




The American Industry is Facing a Paralyzing Recession

The American Industry is Facing a Paralyzing Recession, In the last five months,
the demand market began to witness a wave of stagnation in the United States of America.


Federal Reserve’s Interest
Fed’s Stance on Interest Rates



Federal Reserve’s Interest


and the index of paid prices decreased significantly in line with the paralysis of the industry movement affected by the decisions of the Federal Reserve.
The index of factory activity of the Institute of American Supply Management decreased by 7% to nearly fifty points,
It is the lowest level since May 2020, according to data released last Tuesday.


October is also witnessing a violent confrontation of declines in the field of industry and others, such as the overall manufacturing index during the past five months,
and export orders during the past three months have decreased significantly.
Timothy Fury, head of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee at the American Institute of Supply Management,
said in an important statement that the October indicator reflects companies’ readiness for a possible drop in demand in the future. Economists’ opinions have referred to this situation several times since the Federal Reserve began its interest-raising journey.



Fed’s Stance on Interest Rates


Will the Fed abandon its stance toward raising interest rates? It is expected that Wednesday will be the date of Wednesday’s meeting, where the interest rate hike by 75 basis points is expected,
but after this recession, which will pose a threat to the global market,
ten manufacturing industries recorded a contraction in October,
led by Furniture, wood products, paper products, and textiles,
while eight industries including apparel, machinery,
and transportation equipment grew, affected by the recession and weak demand market.


The raw materials market has also witnessed a significant decline in the recent period, as well as the price of oil and wages, and the employment market of the Institute of Settings Management increased by fifty compared to last September, and the delivery index of suppliers of the Institute of Supply Management fell to forty-six eight-pointers, to record its lowest level since about 12 General The growth of inventories rose last October, but not strongly, as it is still weaker than last April. All things are looking for the Fed before issuing a decision next Wednesday to calm the interest rate hike a little.

A forthcoming Fed meeting and oil posted weekly gains

A forthcoming Fed meeting and oil posted weekly gains

A forthcoming Fed meeting and oil posted weekly gains:

Investors are looking forward to the Federal Reserve meeting,
where the monetary policy of the United States will be determined in the coming period. 

Evest follows all developments in the trading market and relays them in the following report:




Fed meeting had a key role

Investors are beginning to prepare for the Fed meeting, which will take place this week.

The US central bank leadership is expected to announce the beginning of the gradual tapering of the Asset Purchase Program.

The two-day meeting of the American Regulatory Authority will be held from 21 to 22 September,
with results to be announced on Wednesday evening.

Statistics released earlier this week showed a slight slowdown in inflation, with an unexpected increase in retail sales.

Consumer confidence in the United States rose in September to 71 points from 70.3 points the previous month,
according to preliminary data calculating this indicator released by the University of Michigan on Friday.

Analysts expected the index to rise to 72 points on average, according to Trading Economics.

According to experts, the current week will be generally quiet until the middle of macroeconomic events,
after which the Fed will determine the mode of trading in hazardous assets.

It will stick to a cautious tone in terms of raising interest rates.

Previously, this situation was seen as moderately optimistic in stock markets,
but now that the stock exchanges are in a correction phase,
any tightening in the Fed’s tone may boost the trend towards profit-making.

Investors will focus on the Fed meeting next week.

The main issue is the announcement of quantitative easing options.

On the eve of the meeting, high volatility in the stock markets is not expected.

According to experts, strong aggregate data on the economy lead to expectations of a reduction in monetary stimulus from the Fed,
but the key point is the timing of its release.


Investors are worried

Global markets continue to repurchase failures, taking advantage of the ever-large liquidity provided by major central banks as part of the monetary stimulus to the economy.

However, the threat of tapering in these measures hampers the development of sustainable growth of hazardous assets.

The pandemic problem is creating more uncertainty.

New strains of the coronavirus have hampered its resolution through mass vaccinations.

Investors are increasingly concerned about the problems of China’s construction giant Evergrande,
which has the largest corporate debt in the world.

The risk of bankruptcy remains high, given its ability to hit the Chinese and the global financial system as well.

State authorities make it clear that they are not likely to save the developer and leave it alone with creditors.

The speed of the US economy’s recovery continues to depend on the course of the epidemic and the rate of vaccination.

Adding to the uncertainty is the statement by the Chairman of Moderna that three-stage vaccines may not be sufficient for Americans to protect against Covid-19.


Oil rises over 2.5% last week

Oil prices fell on Friday amid a gradual recovery in the US company’s production of oil and petroleum products in the region hit by Hurricane Ida.

Since the beginning of this week, the price of Brent crude has risen by 2.6% and West Texas Intermediate by 2.5%.

The cost of Brent crude futures for November on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures on Friday is $74.74 per barrel,
$1.23 lower than the closing price of the previous session.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude futures for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NMX) fell to $71.53 per barrel,
1.49٪ lower than the final value of the previous session.

According to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Control, in the Gulf of Mexico, after Hurricane Ida passed by the end of August,
the capacity to provide about 28% of oil production has not yet been restored.


English Research Corporation: Global oil demand will peak in a short time

Global demand for crude oil will peak sooner than previously thought,
as the Covid-19 pandemic and clean energy trends accelerate the transition from fossil fuels, according to IHS Markit.

The London-based research company’s latest long-term forecast cuts four years and 5.2 million barrels per day from its 2020 peak demand estimate. 

IHS Markit now expects global demand for crude oil to rise until 2033, peaking at 81 million barrels per day,
before beginning a long-term decline.

In the meantime, At the same time, the company’s new global demand scenario for refined products such as gasoline, diesel,
and jet fuel requires a peak in 2036, and demand in 2050 below 2019 levels.

“The energy transition accelerated during COFID- 19, and the combination of changing consumer habits
and a growing sense of urgency around climate change will lead to greater political commitment and financial support to decarbonize the industry.”
Sandeep Sial, IHS Markit Vice President and Head of Oil Markets and Refining said in a press release. 

The forecast coincides with OPEC warning that a delta version of the coronavirus will affect oil recovery until next year. 

OPEC expects oil demand to average 99.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2021,
down 110,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast.

These figures refer to total petroleum liquids, including crude oil and other refining inputs.


A positive weekend in Asia and negative in Europe

On Friday, the positive dynamics of the indices prevailed in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.6%,
China’s Shanghai composite -0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1%,
but Europe declined in the evening, with France’s KAC, German Dax, and British Footsy down 0.8-1.2%.

The consumer confidence index at the University of Michigan rose to 71 points in September,
while it was expected to grow to 72 points from 70.3 points in August.

A forthcoming Fed meeting and oil posted weekly gains