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Key Economic Events and Market Trends This Week

Key Economic Events and Market Trends This Week: This week’s economic calendar is packed with critical events that could influence the markets,
from central bank announcements to key inflation data.
As we navigate these developments, we’ll also examine the latest market trends,
including the Dow Jones’ recent surge, gold’s new highs,
and key movements in major currency pairs like EURUSD and EURAUD.
Additionally, we’ll take a quick look at the performance of stocks like Nvidia, providing insights into what investors should watch.

 

Content

Economic Agenda
Dow Jones
Gold
EURUSD
Nvidia 
EURAUD

 

 

 

Economic Agenda

Tuesday, August 20, 2024  

04:15 CNY – People’s Bank of China Loan Prime Rate  

12:00 EUR – Consumer Price Index (YoY) (July)Wednesday, August 21, 2024  

17:30 USD – U.S. Crude Oil Inventories  

21:00 USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, August 22, 2024  

15:30 USD – Unemployment Claims  

16:45 USD – Manufacturing PMI (August)  

16:45 USD – Services PMI (August)  

17:00 USD – Existing Home Sales (July)

Friday, August 23, 2024

17:00 USD – Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Speech  

17:00 USD – New Home Sales (July)

 

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Index saw substantial gains last week,
especially after U.S. inflation figures indicated that inflation in the United States dropped to 200%,
supporting U.S. stock markets during the week’s trading.

Expectations have risen that the Federal Reserve will make three interest rate cuts this year.
From a technical perspective,

it is expected that the upward trend in the Dow Jones will continue towards the peak of around 41,395 levels,
potentially achieving a new historical high.

 

Gold

Gold formed a new historical peak during last week’s trading,
trading above the $2,500 per ounce level for the first time.
The upward trend is expected to continue after the weekly close above the $2,484 level to complete the ab=cd pattern,
which is expected to be around $2,531. From there,
we might see a bearish correction for gold to retest the $2,484 level before resuming the upward trend.

 

 

 

 

EURUSD  

The EURUSD pair has been trading in an upward trend recently, with the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar.
The pair’s trading reached the 1.1026 level, but it has not yet been able to break the 1.1047 level.

If these levels are broken, the upward trend could continue, targeting the 1.1140 levels.
However, if the pair breaks below the 1.10948 level, a bearish correction might begin, targeting the 1.0781 level.

 

 

Nvidia 

Nvidia stock remains positive, with trading reaching the 124.57 level after closing last week above the 118.43 level,
absorbing the recent downward wave. If the stock remains above the 118 level,
this supports continuing the upward trend towards the 140 level again.

 

 

EURAUD

The EURAUD pair trades around pivotal levels within the demand range, extending to the 1.6478 level.
We expect the pair to trade upward from this level,
targeting the 1.6749 level.
However, if these levels break directly and a four-hour candle closes below them,

then the downward trend may continue toward the 1.6194 level.

 

 

Key Economic Events and Market Trends This Week

The most important economic event and new market

The most important economic event and new market: in this brief,
we give details about the most important news expected to be traded during the week:

 

Topics:

Economic Calendar

Gold

Oil

Dow Jones Index

GBPUSD

EURUSD

USDJPY

 

 

Economic Calendar

Tuesday 13/2/24: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) -(YoY )-(MoM) 

Wednesday 14/2/24: U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY 

Wednesday 14/2/24: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday 15/2/24: U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY (Q4)

Thursday 15/2/24: U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims

Friday 16/2/24: U.S. Core Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY

 

Gold

Annual US consumer prices, which the markets expect to decline to 2.9%,
in the event of a violation of expectations, we may witness positivity for the dollar
and possible negativity for gold, and vice versa in the event of a decline.

With prices located below the digital resistance level of $2037,
which coincides in price with the upper border of the descending digital channel,
prices may return to the decline once I see time to target the levels of $2007,
and by breaking them, the target will be to meet at $2000.

 

Oil

On the daily frame, prices achieved a new, higher low at $72, forming an upward directional movement.
A close is observed above the pivot point 76.64,
which stimulates the upward process to achieve a higher peak.
In the event of breaching the resistance level of 80.00,
the possibility of visiting the resistance area 85.73 – 86.12 will increase.

However, in the event of a return below the pivotal level,
it will be possible to retest 70.65, then the main support at $68.00.

 

Dow Jones Index

Last week, the Dow Jones Index succeeded in penetrating and holding the highest level of 38615, achieving 0.25%.
The price is located above the lower border of the ascending price channel,
targeting levels of 39110.
However, if the lower border is breached downwards,
the index will head towards levels of 36985, and the markets are awaiting CPI data on Tuesday.

 

 

GBPUSD

The pound stabilized at $1.262 and at neutral levels,
after breaking the lower border of the ascending channel.
The possibility of a rise is still excluded unless it breaches the sub-denominator of 1.2770.
However, if it declines again and settles below the support 1.2494,
it will make it more likely that it will return to the support levels 1.2188 – 1.2037.

 

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair moved upward from the support levels of 1.0720-1.0745 last week.
With a harmonic bat pattern in place and targeting 1.0900 levels,
the markets awaiting inflation data and the consumer price index next Tuesday.

 

USDJPY

In light of US interest rates remaining high during the current year for an extended period,
the positivity is likely to continue.

With prices above the digital support level of 148.50,
and with prices also above the upper border of the ascending digital channel,
prices are likely to target the 150.25-152.00 levels, and this comes with prices maintaining trading above 149.00.

 

The most important economic event and new market

With the USD/JPY Rally

With the USD/JPY Rally, Investors are now turning their attention to the US dollar which appears to be shrugging off its previous soft tone.

 

Topics
The US Dollar is Shrugging Off Previous Soft Tone
The US Dollar: Riding the Wave
Navigating the Volatile Markets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The US Dollar is Shrugging Off Previous Soft Tone

 

The USD/JPY pair has been pushing higher in Tuesday’s European session,
breaching recent highs at 133.15 and hitting fresh one-week highs near 133.40.
This comes after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda dismissed
any chance of a near-term exit from the bank’s ultra-expansive monetary policy on Monday,
increasing negative pressure on the Japanese Yen and providing support
for the greenback against its major counterparts including JPY and EUR pairs.

 

It seems that investors are now looking ahead with optimism towards potential fiscal stimulus measures
by President Joe Biden’s administration as well as further progress
in vaccine rollouts across various countries around the world which could help
drive economic recovery later this year or early 2022.
This is likely why we are seeing some strength return into riskier assets
such as equities while also supporting haven currencies like the USD versus other major currencies like JPY or EURO.

 

Overall it looks like traders have started focusing more heavily
on fundamentals rather than speculations when it comes down
to trading decisions about currency movements; if this trend continues
then we may see further gains for the USD over the coming weeks
especially if there are no new developments concerning central banks’ policies
such as BoJ’s monetary stance going forward.

 

This positive turn of events can be attributed to the risk appetite triggered
by China’s decision to scrap quarantine requirements for inbound travellers.

The move shows that China is taking proactive steps towards reopening its economy
and restoring confidence in global markets, which could bode well for other countries too.
The news was welcomed with enthusiasm across financial markets,
driving up stock prices and pushing down bond yields,
both signs of improved investor sentiment.

 

 

The US Dollar: Riding the Wave

 

This optimism has also had an impact on currencies such as the US Dollar;
after initially declining at the start of this week due to increased risk aversion
caused by coronavirus fears, it appears that traders are now more willing to take risks again,
resulting in gains against some major currency pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD over recent days.

 

As we move forward into what many believe will be a period of recovery from COVID-19 disruption,
investors may continue looking favourably upon safe-haven assets like gold or USD;
however only time will tell if these initial gains seen this week can be sustained through further uncertainty ahead!

The post-Christmas market in Japan has been a bit thin, with mixed economic data.
Employment numbers were slightly better than expected,
but retail consumption dropped to 2.6% in November below the consensus of 2.8%,
and down from 4.4% seen in October.

 

The Japanese economy is still feeling the effects of COVID-19,
as people are being more cautious about their spending habits after months of uncertainty
and job insecurity due to pandemic restrictions throughout 2020.
However, there may be some hope on the horizon for 2021,
employment figures suggest that businesses have started hiring again despite current conditions;
this could lead to an increase in consumer confidence
which would help boost retail sales going forward into next year.

 

In addition, investors and policymakers alike need to keep an eye
on how different sectors are performing within Japan’s economy over time,
while retail consumption might be dropping now, other industries
such as manufacturing or services could see growth if they become more competitive globally.
This kind of diversification will help ensure sustainable long-term success
even when one sector is struggling at any given moment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall, it looks like we can expect continued volatility across all markets
until things start improving significantly worldwide;
however, by keeping track of key indicators such as employment figures
or consumer sentiment we’ll have a better idea of
where things stand moving forward into 2021 so let’s stay tuned!

The markets are keeping an eye on three important economic indicators in the US calendar:
US Goods Trade Balance, Housing Prices, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.
This trio of data points can provide insight into how well the economy is doing
and whether it is likely to grow or contract over time.

 

The US Goods Trade Balance measures exports versus imports for goods
shipped across international borders within a given month.
If exports exceed imports, then this indicates that domestic production has been strong enough
to meet demand from abroad – a sign of economic strength.
On the other hand, if imports outnumber exports,
then this could be indicative of weak domestic production
or increased foreign competition in certain industries,
both signs that could lead to slower growth down the line.

 

When people feel more confident about their financial situation,
they’re more likely to invest in homes which drives up prices accordingly (and vice versa).
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index provides another measure of confidence
since it tracks new orders placed with manufacturers based on surveys conducted each month,
so any increase here would indicate higher demand for products being made domestically
which should help drive GDP growth moving forward.

 

Finally, although these indicators may have a limited impact on currencies directly
due to their localized nature (as opposed to global events such as central bank decisions),
traders will still be paying close attention since any changes here may foreshadow shifts
elsewhere around the world later down the road!

 

 

 

 

The Economic Stagnation of Russia

 

The Economic Stagnation of Russia

 

The Economic Stagnation of Russia, now, in light of the sanctions imposed on it by Europe and the United States,
is facing a severe and also long-term recession in terms of real income rates,
and according to Chinese studies indicating great pressures on the Russian economy
and Russian President Vladimir Putin, causing deep wounds to the Russian economy.

 

Topic

The Impact on National Income
The Great Russian-Chinese Partnership
Sanctions Continue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Impact on National Income

 

The study also points to a severing of trade links,
as well as an attempt to reach production that includes several nationalities,
which in turn leads to a 12% decline in real income and also leads to a permanent decline in the country’s GDP.

 

 

The Great Russian-Chinese Partnership

 

Several assessments of the current situation have been issued,
and perhaps the closest and most pessimistic is the model presented about the direct impact of isolation on Russia from the largest economies except China only, which is the largest partner in the trade aspect,
and China did not join the group of countries that imposed sanctions on Russia,
but that The biggest danger is the direct impact of the problems you face due to secondary sanctions that also restrict trade relations

 

 

 

 

 

Sanctions continue

 

Since the imposition of sanctions on Russia by the United States as well as its allies in Europe,
which began on February 24, and with the development of the imposed restrictions,
which included sectors such as the energy sector and access to finance,
this was pushing many companies based in Russia, led to leave Russia,
but at the same time the Russian economy seeks to confront the matter and adapt to these circumstances,
and we may also see a recession with less than expectations in the short term,
but about the long-term vision, it is still foggy and not clear at all While estimates were issued that indicate significant losses in the Russian economy, including losses in social welfare as well as economic losses,
they are still significant, as it approaches 10% if the trade is affected by the sanctions.

While economists pointed to the importance of multinational production in an attempt to understand the significant effects of economic sanctions,
expectations indicate more important news that also indicates the withdrawal of some Western companies from the Russian market.

 

 

 

USD Rocket as the Unemployment rate Drops

 

USD Rocket as the Unemployment rate Drops

 

USD Rocket as the Unemployment rate drops, the nonfarm payrolls report is an important measure of the US economy’s health.

It is a measure of the number of employees in the United States excluding agricultural workers and a few other occupational categories.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducts payroll surveys of commercial and public sector employers in the United States.

 

Topic

NFP USD Correlation
Strong US Dollars
Market Speculations
US Stocks are at their lowest
Weak Euro

 

 

 

 

NFP USD Correlation

 

The nonfarm payroll report’s publication can have a substantial influence on financial markets that comes out on

the first Friday of every month highlighting the previous one.

Investors and traders regularly monitor this data to gain a sense of where the economy is headed.

A healthy labour market often leads to increased consumer spending, which promotes economic growth.

According to the most recent nonfarm payroll data, employment growth slowed in August but remained strong overall.

The unemployment rate stayed stable at 4%, close to historic lows. Wages increased as well,

but at a slower rate than in prior months. Overall, this was regarded as good news for the economy,

indicating that, despite some slowing in employment creation at the time of writing, there was still robust demand for workers.

 

The US Dollar is strengthening as unemployment rates fall to a five-decade low,

it has reached its highest level in more than two years, as the US economy continues to improve,

the US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.4% to 97.74.
In July, the US economy added 164,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, its lowest level since December 1969.

 

 

Strong US Dollars

 

The robust jobs data has increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again in November, with a string of solid economic data releases, including retail sales and inflation, which has also strengthened the US dollar.

 

 

Market Speculations

 

If US nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations in October 2022, the EUR/USD might fall below $0.97, the nonfarm payrolls in the United States are predicted to rise by about 1.5 million by October 2022, which makes the EUR/USD under pressure after a continuation of the bearish trend from earlier this week, as the exchange rate approaches the October low 0.9640.
If this happens, it could mean big things for investors and traders alike, the EUR/USD may continue to reverse the previous week’s gains as it approaches the October low (0.9640), but a lack of momentum to test the 0.9700 to 0.9720 area may prompt a larger correction as it approaches the Fibonacci overlap around 0.9760 to 0.9770.
Otherwise, a move below the 0.9640 regions may open up the downside targets of 0.9610 and 0.9570, but the Fibonacci overlap around 0.9530  to 0.9550 may offer a near-term floor for EUR/USD as it approaches the monthly range’s bottom.

 

 

 

 

 

US Stocks are at their lowest

 

Stock index futures are typically volatile early Friday as Wall Street anticipates the September employment data for 2022. Equity bulls are probably expecting weaker-than-expected payroll data, which would provide the Fed with some breathing room.
This week, authorities have emphasized the hawkish stance, and one of the key reasons is a tight labour market. The employment data comes at a key time in the stock market too, the S&P 500 Index is trading at a record low, and the Dow futures fall 200 points as rates pop on September’s jobs report.

 

 

Weak Euro

 

The EUR/USD lost early gains as German data came into play as well. Figures from the US labour market may reflect more of the same, weak industrial production and retail sales provide further evidence that the German economy continues to slide into a recession

After increasing by 0.3% in July, industrial production fell by 0.6% in August, and the EUR/USD erased early gains and was trading at 0.9758 at the time of writing, despite economists’ predictions of a 0.4% decrease. Today, the labour market numbers in the United States have been reviewed, and they may offer further information on the state of the US economy and the Fed’s next move.