Tag Archives: European Central Bank

Inflation Nears ECB Target Amid Persistent Challenges

Inflation Nears ECB Target Amid Persistent Challenges: In recent statements, Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB),
emphasized that the ECB is making gradual progress toward achieving its inflation target of 2%.
Despite this progress, challenges remain, requiring flexible monetary policies and continuous evaluation of economic conditions.

These remarks come as efforts to stabilize prices and markets continue.
Provided no unforeseen geopolitical risks emerge, further progress is expected next year.

 

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European Central Bank
Germany’s Business Climate Index

 

 

 

Philip Lane: Inflation Nears ECB Target, but Challenges Persist

On Monday, Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank,
stated that the bank faces ongoing challenges in stabilizing prices at its 2% target.
He highlighted that reducing inflation remains a priority, mainly through further reductions in service prices to ensure the desired stability.

Lane noted that inflation is gradually nearing the set target,
adding that the final phase of achieving this goal may be completed next year,
assuming no geopolitical or political risks arise.

He also emphasized the importance of maintaining flexible monetary policies
that respond to negative and positive risks that could impact inflation trends.
Lane assured that the ECB continuously assesses economic conditions in every meeting,

enabling well-informed decisions aligned with market developments.

Regarding the future, Lane suggested that prolonged restrictive monetary policies might not be necessary,
hinting at their potential easing in the near term if economic conditions stabilize.

 

 

 

Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index for November Falls Below Expectations

On Monday, the IFO Institute for Economic Research revealed
that Germany’s Business Climate Index for November underperformed expectations.
The index fell to 85.7 points, compared to an expected 86.0 points,
with the previous October reading at 86.5 points.

The IFO Business Climate Index is one of the leading indicators closely monitored by markets.
It reflects the state of the German economy by assessing business sector reactions to current economic conditions.
Any change in this index serves as an early signal of future economic trends, including spending,
employment, and investment, making it a crucial tool for evaluating Germany’s overall economic performance.

 

 

Inflation Nears ECB Target Amid Persistent Challenges

Dollar Rises as Inflation Data Halts, Fueling Rate Cut Bets

Dollar Rises as Inflation Data Halts, Fueling Rate Cut Bets: On Thursday, September 12, the U.S. dollar traded near its highest level in four weeks against the euro,
as signs of stability in U.S. inflation boosted expectations
that the Federal Reserve will avoid a significant rate cut next week.

 

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Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected
to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point later today,
and investors are looking for hints on how close another rate cut might be.

The dollar rose against the yen following a volatile session yesterday.
The U.S. currency dropped by about 1.24% to its lowest level
this year before recovering all its losses after the release of consumer price data. 

Early on Wednesday, Junko Nakagawa, a Bank of Japan’s Board of Directors member,
confirmed the bank’s bias toward tightening monetary policy, stating that low real interest rates leave room for further hikes.
Her colleague on the board, Naoki Tamura, said today,
Thursday, that the pace of expected monetary policy tightening in the market might be slower than necessary,
comments that helped ease the yen’s losses.

The dollar rose 0.31% to 142.805 yen after climbing earlier by about 0.41%.
In the previous session, following Nakagawa’s comments, it had fallen to 140.71 yen for the first time since December 28. 

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, matching the gain seen in July.
Excluding volatile food and energy components, the index rose 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month.

As a result, traders have essentially ruled out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18,
leaving the probability at 15%, compared to an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut. 

For the ECB, markets are 100% certain of a quarter-point rate cut today,
as a group of policymakers supports another reduction following a quarter-point cut in June.

The euro stabilized at $1.10165, remaining close to the low,
which reached $1.1002 on Wednesday, its weakest since August 16.

 

 

Dollar Rises as Inflation Data Halts, Fueling Rate Cut Bets

The main economic news and events for this week

The main economic news and events for this week include the rise of the euro against the US dollar,
important data starting from the European Central Bank on Thursday with interest rate decisions,
and the US Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively,
among other events and news presented in this report.

 

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Economic Calendar

Gold

Oil 

Dow Jones

GBPUSD

EURUSD

USDJPY

 

 

 

Economic Calendar

Wednesday, April 10

USD Core Consumer Price Index (excluding food and energy) (monthly) for March

USD Consumer Price Index

CAD Interest Rate Decision from the Bank of Canada

USD Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting

Thursday, April 11

EUR Interest Rate Decision from the European Central Bank
 USD Producer Price Index
EUR European Central Bank Press Conference

Friday, April 12, 2024

GBP Gross Domestic Product

 

Gold

Gold prices surged by over 4.00% last week, registering new historical peaks despite positive US unemployment data.
The Gold awaits several important US data releases, including the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes.
With prices stabilizing above $2300, gold’s next target is expected to be around $2350.

 

Oil

West Texas Intermediate crude prices stabilized around $86 per barrel,
retreating after nearing $88. With prices above critical levels on the daily chart,
an upward trend is expected to continue if prices hold above these levels.
A confirmed break below could lead to a retest of the support levels between $83 and $80,
aligned with the uptrend line since the start of the year.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 3% last week before closing with a 2.50% decline.
The markets await several important US data releases this week,
including the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday.
With the index rising from the support level of 38600 and the presence of a harmonic pattern,
a continued rise to levels 39225-39295 is expected.

 

 

GBPUSD

The pound stabilized around 1.26 USD after forming a base near the 1.2500 support level.
On the daily chart, it remains in a sideways range,
with a potential return to an uptrend to levels 1.2710 and 1.2895 if a higher base forms.
A break below support could likely lead to a continued decline to support levels at 1.2280 and 1.2035.

 

EURUSD

The euro rose against the US dollar by about 0.5% last week.
The markets await important data starting from the European Central Bank on Thursday with interest rate decisions
and the US Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
With the price stabilizing above the support levels of 1.0795-1.0805, the pair is expected to continue rising to 1.0885-1.0900.

 

USDJPY

The USDJPY pair hovers around the 152 resistance level and above the 200-day moving average,
in a rectangular continuation pattern on a 4-hour timeframe.
A break above the resistance and holding above it is expected to lead to a continued rise,
targeting levels 153.50 and then 155.00. However, if it declines and breaks below the pivotal level of 148.90, a retest of level 146 is likely.

The main economic news and events for this week