The most important economic data and news expected next week
Next week from the US, investors will be closely monitoring PCE price indices
personal income and spending data, and speeches from various Federal Reserve officials.
Pivotal metrics such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI,
the second estimate of the GDP growth rate, durable goods orders,
consumer sentiment, and new and pending home sales will also be under scrutiny.
At the international level, attention will be drawn to inflation rates in Japan, Australia and the Eurozone.
Emphasis will also be placed on the GDP growth rates of Turkey, Switzerland and Canada.
Furthermore, manufacturing PMIs for pivotal countries
such as China, Russia, Switzerland and Canada will provide
insights into the health of their respective industrial sectors.
Finally, markets will await the interest rate decision from the New Zealand central bank,
and unemployment rates in Germany, Mexico, Japan and the Eurozone.
Euro witnessed strong gains during last week’s trading
The euro witnessed a rise in the European currency market on Friday against a group of global currencies,
as it maintained its gains for the eighth consecutive day against the US dollar,
and approached its highest level in three weeks.
The euro is preparing to achieve outstanding weekly performance in 2024,
given the decline in the possibility of a cut in interest rates in the eurozone next April.
These prospects declined this week after a series of positive economic data in the Eurozone,
and more hawkish statements from European Central Bank leaders,
reduced fears of widening the current interest rate gap between Europe and the United States.
US stocks await US consumer confidence
The markets are awaiting the release of the US Consumer Confidence data (CB),
which is scheduled to be released during next Monday’s trading,
as economists expect the upcoming numbers to vary to be consistent
with the previous reading of around 114.8, as an actual reading higher
than 114.8 will strengthen the position of stocks,
whose indicators are moving in positive pricing as a result of
the good numbers of corporate results and also
The strength of the labour market and the strength of the American consumer?
The most important economic data and news expected next week
Oil Prices Stabilise Amid Continued Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East:
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to impact oil prices.
Futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $76.84 per barrel on Friday,
while crude inventories rose by more than 5 million barrels, surpassing market expectations.
Stability in Oil Prices Amid Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East
Futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $76.84 per barrel on Friday,
marking an increase of over 6% during the week.
These increases were driven by continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,
where occupying forces continued military operations in Gaza and conducted airstrikes near the Egyptian border. Additionally, the United States carried out a drone strike in Baghdad,
further escalating tensions with the Iraqi government, a significant oil-producing state.
Official data showed a significant decrease in US gasoline inventories,
while crude inventories rose by more than 5 million barrels, surpassing market expectations.
American Consumer Prices and Their Impact Amid Negative Expectations
After Federal Reserve members stated last week that the Fed is not compelled to cut rates early in March,
especially amidst uncertainty about inflation falling towards the targeted 2.0%,
attention turns to American consumer prices during this week’s trading sessions.
Experts anticipate a decrease, with annual consumer prices expected to drop from 3.4% to 2.9%.
Should this materialize, we might witness a significant correction in the dollar index,
pushing expectations for a cut in May and potentially negatively affecting
the dollar index while positively impacting gold.
Notably, an increase in American consumer prices,
contrary to expectations with a reading higher than 2.9%, will reduce expectations for a cut in May,
possibly leading to continued dollar appreciation and negative gold sentiment,
as such positivity reinforces the Federal Reserve’s uncertainty stance.
Euro Recovers After Reducing Expectations of ECB Rate Cuts:
The euro saw gains in the European market last week against a basket of global currencies.
It maintained its gains for the fourth consecutive day against the US dollar,
as a result of continued recovery from a three-month low and buying operations from low levels.
Some officials at the European Central Bank offered comments reducing the likelihood
of early European interest rate cuts,
alleviating concerns about widening interest rate differentials between Europe and the United States.
Isabelle Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank,
commented, “Recent economic data and strong market expectations
regarding rapid interest rate cuts indicate the necessity for the
ECB to exercise patience before deciding on easing monetary stimulus policies.”
Oil Prices Stabilise Amid Continued Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East
However, according to recent data from Eurostat, that rate of increase has slowed slightly, from 10% to 9.9%, despite this small decrease, the overall trend is still very positive and investors should remain confident in the future of the Euro.
So, whatever your investment strategy is, make sure to keep a close eye on this currency!
Estonia and Latvia have been two of the fastest-growing economies in Europe over the past few years.
However, new data shows that inflation in both countries is slightly lower than previously thought, this is good news for traders and investors who have been worried about potential price bubbles in these countries.
It now seems less likely that prices will continue to rise at an unsustainable pace, making it a safer place to invest your money.
The eurozone gauge on the month was unrevised, as was the so-called core measurement excluding volatile elements such as food.
This means that inflation in the bloc is still relatively low and poses no immediate threat to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) efforts to stimulate growth.
However, with wages beginning to rise and energy prices edging higher,
inflation may start to pick up in the coming months.
This will be closely watched by ECB policymakers, who have been adamant that they will not begin tightening monetary policy until inflation has reached its target of close to 2%.
Eurozone Struggle
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to raise interest rates next week by up to 75 basis points
is unlikely to provide much relief for consumers struggling with the region’s energy crisis,
despite a slight downward revision in inflation forecasts,
the ECB still expects prices to rise at a double-digit pace this year.
This means that consumers will continue to see their costs surge as they try to cope with the energy crisis.
The situation is particularly dire in countries like Italy and Greece,
where inflation is already running well above 10%.
In these countries, households are being squeezed hard by rising costs and stagnant wages,
with no end in sight for the energy crisis,
it seems likely that consumer price growth will remain high across Europe in the months ahead.
This means that interest rate rises from the ECB are unlikely to provide much relief for ordinary families.
There is a huge divergence in inflation across the eurozone,
with rates ranging from 6.2% in France to 24.1% in Estonia.
This new report underscores the enormous disparities that exist within the currency bloc and highlights the need for policymakers to address this issue urgently,
Inflation has been rising steadily throughout the eurozone over the past year,
but there have been wide variations between countries.
While some member states, such as Germany, have seen relatively low levels of price increases,
others like Greece and Spain have experienced much higher rates of inflation.
Eurozone Future
The new report from Eurostat confirms that these differences are still very pronounced and underscore just how divergent economic conditions are across the eurozone at present. With consumer prices rising much faster in some parts of the currency bloc than others, it is clear that not all households are experiencing equally favourable economic conditions at present.
This divergence in inflationary pressures is likely to continue unless action is taken by policymakers to address it directly. The European Central Bank will need to monitor developments closely and take whatever steps necessary to ensure that inflation remains contained within its target range.”
Inflation has been rising steadily since early 2016 as the bloc emerges from years of economic stagnation. The ECB has been slow to react but is now widely expected to raise interest rates next year as price pressures continue to mount, this will be good news for savers who have seen their incomes squeezed by low-interest rates for years. But it will add pressure on borrowers who are already struggling with high levels of debt relative to their incomes.”
Eurozone consumer inflation was marginally lower in September than estimated earlier, data showed on Wednesday, but still, at a record high, the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said consumer prices in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 1.2% month-on-month for a 9.9% year-on-year surge, revising down its earlier estimate of a 10% year-on=year reading, surging energy prices were responsible for 4.19 percentage points of the total year=on=year reading, with food adding another 2.47 points and services 1.80 points.
Oil stabilizes as euro and US stocks slide ahead of Fed meeting
while the euro suffered losses after its biggest decline in two weeks,
and the dollar stabilized before an expected hike in US interest rates later in the day,
as US stocks declined after Walmart stocks.
Oil stabilizes as demand concerns offset falling US crude inventories
Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday morning as concerns about weak demand offset industry
data showing a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories.
By 0250 GMT, Brent crude futures stood at $104.35 per barrel, down 5 cents, or 0.05 percent.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 9 cents,
0.1 percent to $95.07 per barrel, and WTI rose by nearly $1 earlier in the session.
In the analysts’ view, the sharp decline in inventories should support oil prices,
but the recovery has been limited by concerns about the likelihood of weak demand, and the White House has said it will release more strategic reserves.
In addition, the prospect of the US Federal Reserve announcing a sharp rate hike later on Wednesday
weighs heavily on sentiment and limits the rise in oil prices.
After Tuesday’s settlement,
the American Petroleum Institute Industrial Group said US crude inventories fell by 4 million barrels last week.
Gasoline inventories fell by 1.1 million barrels,
compared with an increase of 3.5 million barrels.
The US government’s Energy Information Administration releases its weekly oil report later on Wednesday.
The Biden administration said on Tuesday it would sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil
from the country’s strategic petroleum reserves as part of a previously announced plan to take advantage of the facility,
calming oil prices boosted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
and rebounding demand in the aftermath of the war,
as well as the COVID-19 pandemic.
The administration said in late March that it would release 1 million barrels
of oil per day for six months from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The United States had already sold 125 million barrels of the reserve
with nearly 70 million barrels delivered to buyers.
In the meantime, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points
later on Wednesday, underscoring concern about the outlook for US demand
and the potential for a stronger dollar,
making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
artıcal name Oil stabilizes as euro and US stocks
Euro declines as Fed’s rate hike approaches and gas risks weigh heavily on it
The euro suffered losses on Wednesday morning after its biggest decline in two weeks,
as a cut in Russian gas supply sent energy prices soaring,
while the dollar stabilized ahead of an expected hike in US interest rates later in the day.
The euro fell by about 1 percent to $1.0108 overnight,
the biggest decline since July 11 and stabilized in early Asian trading at $1.0139.
Growth in Europe remains vulnerable to Russian gas supplies,
which have become a major threat since the start of Ukraine’s war.
Flows along the Nord Stream tube from Russia to Germany fell on Tuesday and will fall further on Wednesday.
Movements were restricted elsewhere before the Fed’s policy announcement at 1800 GMT,
and the yen stabilized at 136.98 per dollar.
Australian and New Zealand dollars rose slightly in early trading,
but remained below Tuesday’s highs-sterling was close to $1.2048.
Markets priced the Fed up 75 basis points later on Wednesday,
with a 13 percent chance of a massive 100 basis point increase.
The focus will also be on the 1830 GMT press conference to get any hint
that policymakers’ intention to increase rate hikes is dwindling as growth slows.
The US dollar is expected to remain supported by long-term safe-haven flows.
Overnight data showed US consumer confidence fell to nearly a year-and-a-half
and new home sales fell, while Walmart (NYSE: WMT) stocks fell after the retailer issued a profit warning.
artıcal name Oil stabilizes as euro and US stocks
US stock markets fall after Walmart stocks fall
US stock indices ended trading in the red on Tuesday due to a sharp deterioration
in retail leader Walmart’s profit forecast.
Walmart stocks fell by 7.6 percent,
and the company expects adjusted earnings per stock to fall by 8-9 percent
during the second fiscal quarter and 11-13 percent during the current fiscal year.
The Federal Reserve meeting that will end on Wednesday marks the most important event for global markets this week,
with analysts’ consensus projections suggesting that after the meeting,
the central bank leadership will decide to raise the prime interest rate by 75 basis points,
although there is a possibility of a 100 basis point rate hike at once.
GE’s market value rose by 4.6 percent after the company reported
much better-than-expected adjusted profit
and revenue for the quarter.
Shares of US automaker GM fell by 3.4 percent, amid news
that the company had cut its net income by 40 percent from April to June,
with adjusted figures not meeting market expectations.
The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by 0.71 percent to 31761.54
and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 1.87 percent to 11562.57.
Among the index’s decline leaders, in addition to Walmart, Nikefell by about 3.8 percent and the S&P 500fell by 1.15 percent to 3921.05 points.
Oil and gas prices rose, though not much as a result of Russia’s move to halt gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria from Wednesday, which is seen as a major escalation in response to Western sanctions against Moscow
Evestfollows market developments in the following report
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said during talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday
that violating Ukraine’s territorial integrity is incompatible with the UN Charter
Guterres suggested creating a joint group of representatives of the World Organization
Russia and Ukraine to ensure the operation of the humanitarian corridors
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia could not sign security guarantees for Ukraine
without resolving the issue of Crimea and Donbas
In global markets, reducing the volume of portfolio risk assets is facilitated
by concern over the vigorous tightening of U.S. monetary policy The United States regulator’s rapidly raising the interest rate and reducing the accumulated balance
under quantitative easing programs will increase the cost of dollar financing and liquidity flow from the market
It will also boost US Treasury yields, increasing their attractiveness as a stock investment due to their low-risk nature
Wall Street declines and positive trading in China
In the United States, stock indexes fell by 2.4-4% on Tuesday
and the Nasdaq index (-4%) ended trading at its lowest level since the end of 2020
with concerns about the global economic outlook
Traders are under pressure because of factors such as the coronavirus outbreak in China high inflation rates and the potential for central banks around the world to raise interest rates
Each contributes to the growth of concern about further economic growth and causes volatility in the market
the Wall Street Journal writes
In Asia, the dynamics of stock indices mixed on Tuesday
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 1.2%, the Shanghai Composite index rose by 2.4%
and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose by 0.1%
Troubled Chinese stocks bucked the trend, rising 2.94% as sentiment got a short-term
boost from data showing earnings growth in industrial companies faster in March than a year earlier
Australian equities (AAXJO) lost 0.78% as inflation reached a 20-year high
bringing interest rate hikes closer
Investors’ focus is on the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan, which began on Wednesday
According to MarketWatch, the country’s central bank has clearly indicated that it intends to keep
interest rates very low to encourage spending and investment
Profits of Chinese industrial enterprises increased by 8.5% in the first quarter
while the growth pace slowed compared to the fourth quarter of 2021
under another lockdown in many industrial cities in connection with a new coronavirus outbreak
The index rose in March by 10.6% year-on-year, accelerating compared to a 5% rise in the first two months of this year, according to the Government Statistics Office of the People’s Republic of China
Oil grows in the Asian session
Prices grew moderately in the oil market in the Asian session on Wednesday
and traders monitor the energy supply from Russia and continue to assess China’s demand prospects
The cost of June Brent futures was $106.18 per barrel, and WTI for June was $102.69 per barrel
German Economy Minister Robert Habecksaid that Germany had reduced its reliance on Russian oil
and could impose an embargo on Russian supplies
Habecksaid that Russia’s share of Germany’s total oil imports fell to 12% from 35% before the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
In the meantime, positive signals come from China Shanghai authorities hinted at the possibility of easing quarantine actions in terms of reducing the number
of new infections of COVID-19 to a minimum in three weeks, Bloomberg reports
In Beijing, the infection also stabilized
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), released on Tuesday
showed that US oil inventories for the week ending April 22 increased by 4.784 million barrels
The U.S. Department of Energy will release official inventory data on Wednesday
The euro is at a 5-years high
The euro fell to its weakest level since 2017 on Wednesday as investors grew more concerned
about global growth and inflation expectations, sending the dollar higher
while a mixed set of corporate profits pushed stock markets lower again
and The dollar rose by 4.3% in April and is on track for its best monthly performance since January 2015
driven by the Federal Reserve’s growing expectations of strong rate hikes in the coming months
and the US economy holding up better than the eurozone
Investors were shedding the euro, falling on Wednesday below $1.06 with another half percent decline
Analysts say the war is playing an influential role and concern is growing that the single currency bloc’s economy
will fall into recession this year
According to Reuters, by 0730 GMT, the euro had traded at a low of $1.0588 while the dollar index rose 0.4% to 102.65, its strongest since March 2020
when concern over a market collapse as countries imposed Covid-19 lockdowns prompted
investors to look for the dollar
European stocks decline slightly
European stocks fell, although declines were not as sharp as on Wall Street as the heavy-tech Nasdaq 100 (.NDX)
closed down 3.3% at its lowest level since late 2020
The news that Russia has cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria has heightened concern
sending MSCI’s global equity index to a 13-month low
The oil keeps recovering and the euro is under new pressureThe war in Ukraine led to a sharp decline in European stock market indices
However, according to Natixis, once good news of the war in Ukraine has emerged, the various factors supporting the European stock market will make European stock indices much better off
There is a high potential for a recovery in the European stock market indices
Evest follows market developments in the following report
A sharp decline in European stock indices due to the Russo-Ukrainian war
According to analysts, “the war in Ukraine led to understandably declining European stock exchange indices
increased risk aversion; Loss of growth in the eurozone due to inflation and supply problems
asset losses in some Russian companies
European stock market indices are supposed to be supported by
Significant financial support being provided; the fact that long-term real interest rates will be very negative for a long time
due to the European Central Bank’s weak response to inflation, which will accelerate the shift of investors from bonds to stocks in addition to a lower wage-to-price index, which would protect corporate profits
the fact that the pre-war financial position of euro-zone companies in Ukraine was particularly strong due to the decline in net debt from cash reserves
According to experts: “We can expect European stock prices to recover quickly once a sign of the end of the crisis has emerged
Euro is under new pressure
The euro came under renewed downward pressure yesterday
The question of the additional sanctions that EU states will impose on Russia
and the implications for the EU economy is likely to have put pressure on the single currency
according to a Commerzbank report
According to the report: “While the risk of a halt to the import of individual energy goods or even a total energy embargo persists, the euro is likely to suffer
“The European Central Bank’s announcement of the end-of-year termination of its expansionist monetary policy may not be helpful
Who knows what would happen until then in these turbulent times The risks of the ECB changing its mind at the last minute remain
This makes it difficult to imagine the euro recovering on a sustainable basis in the short term
Consumer prices in South Korea rose by 4.1% in March from the same month last year, according to the country’s Bureau of Statistics
This is the highest rate of increase in more than 10 years since December 2011
Analysts expected an average rise of 3.8%, according to Trading Economics
In February, prices rose by 3.7%
The acceleration of inflation is due to higher prices of energy resources and other types of raw materials
Consumer prices have risen by more than 3% since October last year, while the Bank of Korea’s target is 2%
The cost of petroleum products in March jumped by 31.2%, electricity
gas and water supply by 2.9%, and rental housing by 2%
The rise in consumer prices in March was 0.7% compared to the previous month, while the forecast was 0.4%
Prices excluding the cost of food and energy (the basic CPI index) rose last month by 2.9% on an annual basis and by 0.1% per month
The Central Bank of Korea expects inflation to rise in 2022 by an average of 3.1% compared to2.5% last year
The central bank has raised its prime interest rate three times (to 1.25% annually), since last August
to limit price growth and has given signs that it will continue to increase in the coming months
The oil keeps rising above $100 per barrel
Oil prices keep rising with expectations of new sanctions against Russia regarding events in Ukraine
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on April 4 that the US will announce new anti-Russian actions this week that could affect the energy sector FrenchPresident Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Schultz also called for new sanctions against Russia
The United States and the United Kingdom have previously imposed restrictions on Russian oil supplies
and many are awaiting some steps from Europe, whose reliance on Moscow in this area is very large
According to Bloomberg analysts
“Getting rid of Russian energy by Europe is not easy, so market concerns are exaggerated here”
Brent crude futures for June rose by $1.22 (1.13%) on the London Futures Exchange, to $108.75 per barrel
Brent crude rose by $3.14 (3 percent) to $107.53 per barrel on Monday
West Texas Intermediate crude futures’ prices for May rose at that moment by $1.23 (1.19%)
to $104.51 per barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
During the previous session
the futures contract rose by $4.01 (4%) to $103.28 per barrel
Concern over new restrictions on Russia was offset by the impact on the market of the decision
by the United States and other countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to dispose of oil from strategic reserves, which contributed to the fall in oil prices last week
The record price hike by Saudi Aramco State was a sign of growing fuel demand worldwide in the face of the refusal of many Russian supply companies
And the day before, it announced that it would raise prices for all grades of exported oil to buyers from all regions in May
The cost of the light Arab item supplied to Asia will increase by $4.4 per barrel
This represents $9.35 more per barrel than the Oman and Dubai oil basket, which is a record The premium of American buyers of the Arab light grade will also rise to a historical maximum – up to $5.65 per barrel to the value of the Argus Sour Crude Oil Index (ASCI)
The cost of all grades supplied to the United States will rise by $2.2 per barrel next month
