Fitch Lowers China’s Economic Growth Forecast for 2025 and 2026:
Fitch Ratings has revised its economic growth projections for China in 2025 and 2026,
citing persistent domestic and international challenges.
Fitch has lowered the GDP growth forecast to 4.3% for 2025 and 4.0% for 2026,
citing key factors such as the continued slowdown.
in the real estate sector and escalating trade tensions with the United States.
These developments highlight the importance of China adopting flexible strategies.
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China’s Economic Growth Forecasts
China’s Economic Growth Forecasts
Due to ongoing domestic and international challenges,
Fitch Ratings has downgraded its economic growth expectations for China for 2025 and 2026.
Initially, China was projected to achieve robust economic growth;
however, current circumstances have necessitated a revision.
The GDP growth forecast has been reduced to 4.3% in 2025
from 4.5% to 4.0% in 2026 from the previous 4.3%.
The main reason for this adjustment lies in several negative factors
affecting the Chinese economy,
particularly the continued slowdown in the real estate sector,
one of the largest drivers of China’s economy.
Despite some positive indicators in the property market,
the persistent slowdown threatens economic stability and sustainable growth.
Given the centrality of the real estate sector to China’s economy,
disruptions in this area significantly impact the broader financial landscape.
Tariffs
Additionally, Fitch predicts a significant tariff increase between China and the United States.
The United States plans to increase the import
tariff rate from China from approximately 10% to 35%.
This tariff hike will profoundly affect trade between the two countries,
potentially reducing Chinese exports to the U.S. and impacting the business sector overall.
The increased tariffs will exacerbate trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies,
placing additional pressure on the Chinese economy as it navigates an increasingly unstable trade environment.
These projections underscore the need for China to implement flexible economic strategies
and pursue continuous structural reforms to enhance domestic market stability.
These reforms are expected to support sustainable economic growth
over the long term while enabling China to adapt to
rising global economic challenges, whether trade-related or otherwise.
Fitch Lowers China’s Economic Growth Forecast for 2025 and 2026