Cautious Trading in Asian Markets with Mixed Expectations for Currencies and International Stocks
Summary of Asian Markets: Limited Trading Ahead of Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S.,
While Technology and AI Dominate the American Market
Content
Asian Markets
Asian markets experienced limited trading on Thursday, with reduced activity as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday approached. Japanese, Australian, and South Korean stocks saw slight gains, while the Japanese yen trimmed the gains it recorded in the previous session.
Key Highlights from Asian Markets:
- Stock indices in Japan, Australia, and South Korea edged higher.
- U.S. futures showed minor gains after the S&P 500 index fell by 0.4% on Wednesday.
- Bond yields in Australia and New Zealand declined, mirroring the movement of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Japanese Yen: Pressure from Interest Rates and Market Expectations
The Japanese yen weakened on Thursday following strong gains of over 1% on Wednesday, marking its highest level since October. This movement aligns with growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may take decisive action to raise interest rates in its upcoming meeting.
Expert Opinion:
“Win Thin,” Global Head of Market Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, stated, “The yen is unlikely to remain below the 150 level for long, given the wide interest rate differentials favoring the dollar.”
Other Currency Movements: Peso Gains and Won Weakens
- Mexican Peso: Rose following positive comments from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump regarding relations with Mexico.
- South Korean Won: Declined after an unexpected rate cut by the Bank of Korea by 25 basis points to 3%.
China: Economic Stimulus Expectations and Yuan in Focus
- Chinese Stocks: Recorded gains, supported by speculation over an important economic meeting expected next month,
which may result in additional stimulus measures. - Chinese Yuan: A report by JPMorgan projected a 10%-15% depreciation in response to trade tensions.
U.S. Market
Technology and AI Leading the Way
Despite declines in some stocks, such as Microsoft due to antitrust investigations,
the S&P 500 index continued its strong performance this year, with a gain exceeding 25%.
This is attributed to:
- Growth in the technology sector.
- Increased focus on artificial intelligence applications.
- Sustained resilience of the U.S. economy.
Emerging Markets Outlook: Upcoming Trade Pressures
A memo from JPMorgan predicts that emerging markets will face significant pressure due to new trade policies, particularly from the U.S.
Key Expectations:
- Growth: Slower growth in emerging markets, down to 3.4% in 2025 from 4.1% this year.
- Currencies: Average currency depreciation of 5% for emerging markets in the first half of 2025.
Commodities and Cryptocurrencies
- Oil: Remained stable amid expectations that OPEC+ will delay production increases.
- Bitcoin: Held steady around $96,000, continuing its recent gains.
In Conclusion, the current market landscape is marked by cautious volatility with mixed expectations for global currencies and stocks,
as central bank policies and developments in international trade remain in the spotlight.
Cautious Trading in Asian Markets with Mixed Expectations for Currencies and International Stocks