A forthcoming Fed meeting and oil posted weekly gains

A forthcoming Fed meeting and oil posted weekly gains

A forthcoming Fed meeting and oil posted weekly gains:

Investors are looking forward to the Federal Reserve meeting,
where the monetary policy of the United States will be determined in the coming period. 

Evest follows all developments in the trading market and relays them in the following report:

 

Topics:

 

Fed meeting had a key role

Investors are beginning to prepare for the Fed meeting, which will take place this week.

The US central bank leadership is expected to announce the beginning of the gradual tapering of the Asset Purchase Program.

The two-day meeting of the American Regulatory Authority will be held from 21 to 22 September,
with results to be announced on Wednesday evening.

Statistics released earlier this week showed a slight slowdown in inflation, with an unexpected increase in retail sales.

Consumer confidence in the United States rose in September to 71 points from 70.3 points the previous month,
according to preliminary data calculating this indicator released by the University of Michigan on Friday.

Analysts expected the index to rise to 72 points on average, according to Trading Economics.

According to experts, the current week will be generally quiet until the middle of macroeconomic events,
after which the Fed will determine the mode of trading in hazardous assets.

It will stick to a cautious tone in terms of raising interest rates.

Previously, this situation was seen as moderately optimistic in stock markets,
but now that the stock exchanges are in a correction phase,
any tightening in the Fed’s tone may boost the trend towards profit-making.

Investors will focus on the Fed meeting next week.

The main issue is the announcement of quantitative easing options.

On the eve of the meeting, high volatility in the stock markets is not expected.

According to experts, strong aggregate data on the economy lead to expectations of a reduction in monetary stimulus from the Fed,
but the key point is the timing of its release.

 

Investors are worried

Global markets continue to repurchase failures, taking advantage of the ever-large liquidity provided by major central banks as part of the monetary stimulus to the economy.

However, the threat of tapering in these measures hampers the development of sustainable growth of hazardous assets.

The pandemic problem is creating more uncertainty.

New strains of the coronavirus have hampered its resolution through mass vaccinations.

Investors are increasingly concerned about the problems of China’s construction giant Evergrande,
which has the largest corporate debt in the world.

The risk of bankruptcy remains high, given its ability to hit the Chinese and the global financial system as well.

State authorities make it clear that they are not likely to save the developer and leave it alone with creditors.

The speed of the US economy’s recovery continues to depend on the course of the epidemic and the rate of vaccination.

Adding to the uncertainty is the statement by the Chairman of Moderna that three-stage vaccines may not be sufficient for Americans to protect against Covid-19.

 

Oil rises over 2.5% last week

Oil prices fell on Friday amid a gradual recovery in the US company’s production of oil and petroleum products in the region hit by Hurricane Ida.

Since the beginning of this week, the price of Brent crude has risen by 2.6% and West Texas Intermediate by 2.5%.

The cost of Brent crude futures for November on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures on Friday is $74.74 per barrel,
$1.23 lower than the closing price of the previous session.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude futures for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NMX) fell to $71.53 per barrel,
1.49٪ lower than the final value of the previous session.

According to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Control, in the Gulf of Mexico, after Hurricane Ida passed by the end of August,
the capacity to provide about 28% of oil production has not yet been restored.

 

English Research Corporation: Global oil demand will peak in a short time

Global demand for crude oil will peak sooner than previously thought,
as the Covid-19 pandemic and clean energy trends accelerate the transition from fossil fuels, according to IHS Markit.

The London-based research company’s latest long-term forecast cuts four years and 5.2 million barrels per day from its 2020 peak demand estimate. 

IHS Markit now expects global demand for crude oil to rise until 2033, peaking at 81 million barrels per day,
before beginning a long-term decline.

In the meantime, At the same time, the company’s new global demand scenario for refined products such as gasoline, diesel,
and jet fuel requires a peak in 2036, and demand in 2050 below 2019 levels.

“The energy transition accelerated during COFID- 19, and the combination of changing consumer habits
and a growing sense of urgency around climate change will lead to greater political commitment and financial support to decarbonize the industry.”
Sandeep Sial, IHS Markit Vice President and Head of Oil Markets and Refining said in a press release. 

The forecast coincides with OPEC warning that a delta version of the coronavirus will affect oil recovery until next year. 

OPEC expects oil demand to average 99.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2021,
down 110,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast.

These figures refer to total petroleum liquids, including crude oil and other refining inputs.

 

A positive weekend in Asia and negative in Europe

On Friday, the positive dynamics of the indices prevailed in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.6%,
China’s Shanghai composite -0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1%,
but Europe declined in the evening, with France’s KAC, German Dax, and British Footsy down 0.8-1.2%.

The consumer confidence index at the University of Michigan rose to 71 points in September,
while it was expected to grow to 72 points from 70.3 points in August.

A forthcoming Fed meeting and oil posted weekly gains

Oil inventories decline by more than 5 million barrels

Oil inventories decline by more than 5 million barrels

Oil inventories decline by more than 5 million barrels: On Tuesday 14th September 2021 the American Petroleum Institute (API) declared a lower in crude oil stockpiles by 5.437 million barrels by the week ending on 10th September, exceeding analysts’ expectations for a lower by 3.903 million barrels in the week.

In the last week the API declared a decline in oil stockpiles by 2.882 million barrels,
less than the 3.832 million barrels were expected for the week by analysts.

The API declared that gasoline stockpiles drew by 2.882 million barrels by the week ending on 10th September compared with the previous week’s rise by 6.414 million barrels.

Distillate stockpiles fell by 2.888 million barrels for this week compared with the previous week’s drop by 3.748 million barrels.

Cushing stockpiles dropped by 1.345 million barrels this week after last week’s rise by 1.794 million barrels.

Topics:

  1. The Oil prices for the week
  2. Oil production rates for the week
  3. Oil demand expectations for the third and fourth quarters
  4. Crude oil stockpiles international developments
  5. OPEC countries increased their production from May

 

Oil prices for the week

Oil prices fell on Tuesday before data publishing, although the International Energy Agency expected strong recovery in the international oil demand,
in addition to the shut down due to hurricanes Ida and Nicholas.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.30% on Tuesday afternoon till data was published,
a while after it was for 70.24$ a barrel, equivalent to 1$ rise throughout the week.

Brent crude was for 73.43% a barrel, lowered 0.20% on the day.

In this year oil stockpiles disposed of more than 70 million barrels.

The API data shows a decline of 6% down the average of the five years for the same time of the year.

 

Oil production rates for the week

This week oil stockpiles affected by the sharp drop in the American production, by 1.5 million barrels per day in the last week,
the biggest loser in a week since Energy Information Administration (EIA) has started tracking data,
to 10 million barrels per day as oil producers in gulf of Mexico suspended production due to hurricane Ida.  

 

Oil demand expectations for the third and fourth quarters

Oil demand expectations changed in 2021 for the third and fourth quarters, by 98.46 and 99.70 million barrels per day in a row.

The previous expectations were 98.23 million barrels per day for the third quarter and 99.82 million barrels per day for the fourth quarter,

the world’s oil consumption was 90.73 million barrels per day in 2020.

 

Crude oil stockpiles international developments

The OECD organization for economic co-operation and development countries Commercial oil reserves reached 2.912 billion barrels in July 2021,
showing a rise by 10.5 million barrels compared with June’s data.

On that level oil reserves reached 306 million barrels, less than they were in 2020, by 122 million barrels,
and less than the average of the five years.

At the same time crude oil stockpiles in the advanced countries lowered by 5.6 million barrels in July,
while other petroleum products rose by 16.2 million barrels.

These quantities covered the (OECD) needs of oil by 63.7 million barrels per day,
less than the 11.6 million barrels per day of 2020 and also less than the average of the five years.

OPEC’s expectations for oil production by the non-members  in 2021, lowered by 170.000 barrels per day due to hurricane Ida.

The expectations were mainly amended due to offer expectations in the third quarter of 2021,
oil offer was 500.000 barrels per day, less than expected.

Such changes followed the cut in production in North America due to a fire in an offshore platform and supply suspension due to hurricane Ida.

Generally oil offer growth in the oil market in 2021 will reach 900.000 barrels per day to 63.8 million barrels per day;
this would happen due to the rise of production in Canada, Russia, China, The USA, Brazil, and Norway.

August’s report

On the contrary, in August’s report, OPEC raised its expectations for oil supply growth by the non-members countries in 2021
and 2022 by 0.27 million barrels per day and 0.84 million barrels per day in a row.

This comes after OPEC’s decision to increase production by 0.4 million barrels till September 2022,
OPEC increased its production in August 2021 by 0.15 million barrels per day to reach 26.76 million barrels per day.

At the same time the countries didn’t break the agreement to reduce production in August by 121% of the plan compared with July’s 2021, 115%.

According to the report Saudi Arabia which lately gave up the extra voluntary reduction,
its production was 9.5 million barrels per day (rose by 70.000 barrels per day by July).

 

OPEC countries increased their production from May

Iraq increased its oil production by 90.000 barrels per day to reach 4.1 million barrels per day,
in Emirates the production rose by 55.000 barrels per day to reach 2.8 million barrels per day.

In Angola the daily production rose by 43.000 barrels to reach 1.1 million barrels per day.

At the same time Nigeria’s oil production fell by 114.000 barrels per day to reach 1.27 million barrels per day in August,
on the other hand the production in Congo drew by 14.000 barrels per day to reach 249 million barrels per day.

OPEC’s agreement

OPEC’s agreement to reduce production includes 10 out of 13 members in the organization, while Iran, Libya, and Venezuela are not included.

In August the agreement members’ production reached 22.59 million barrels per day, while the agreement recommended producing 23.286 million barrels.

Totally it was possible to take 4.1 million barrels per day out of the market to the recommended level in the agreement instead of the 3.397 million barrels needed;
accordingly the agreement terms were fulfilled.

OPEC members are trying to raise the production by 400.000 barrels per day monthly according to the agreement , as it is valid for October ,
yet a decision is about to be made in the next ministerial meeting on 4th October 2021.

Oil inventories decline by more than 5 million barrels

A positive start in Asian markets.. and oil posts new gains

A positive start in Asian markets and oil posts new gains

A positive start in Asian markets and oil posts new gains: Today we see the opening of major exchanges around the world after the weekend,
and the markets today appear to be optimistic as oil continues to rise, and US West Texas crude managed to move past the $70 level,
while the strong dollar is putting pressure on gold to decline. 

Evest follows all this and more in the following report:

Topics:

  1. Morale is getting better And Covid-19 is putting pressure on the markets in the United States
  2. Nikkei and Shanghai rise and Hang Sang decline
  3. Oil price recovery
  4. Gold is declining due to US dollar pressure

 

Morale is getting better And Covid-19 is putting pressure on the markets in the United States

Fears of a new trade war between the US and China caused US investor morale to deteriorate last weekend. 

The US administration has launched a new investigation into Chinese support and its negative impact on the US economy.

The negative turn of the situation could lead to the introduction of new US tariffs against Chinese manufacturers.

However, market participants’ morale got better on Monday morning, as oil and futures for the US and European indices grew. 

In the US, stock indices declined 0.8-0.9% on Friday and ended the week in the Red Zone.

The Dow Jones index fell 2.2% over the week, the Standard & Poor’s 1.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%.

Market pressure comes from signs that the high Covid-19 prevalence rate is impeding the recovery of the US economy.

Last week, US President Joe Biden announced a new vaccination plan for Covid-19 in the country,
including new vaccination rules for federal employees, employers, and medical staff,
in an attempt to contain another increase in the Coronavirus prevalence in the United States. 

According to the New York Times, the average daily number of new Covid-19 cases in the United States is just under 150 thousand,
and an estimated 53% of the population has been vaccinated.

 

Nikkei and Shanghai rise and Hang Sang decline

In Asia, the dynamics of stock indices mixed on Monday. With Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.2%, China’s Shanghai Composite index by 0.3%,
and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng by 2.1%.

US stock futures for the Standard & Poor’s Index rose 0.4%. 

Investors continue to be pressured by the global prevalence of the Covid-19 delta strain, forcing Governments to reimpose or tighten existing restrictions.

This is slowing the pace of economic recovery.

Stocks of Chinese technology companies, after a short period of strengthening, are declining amid increasing control by the authorities. 

Internet platforms had received a strong warning from regulators not to attempt to circumvent the restrictive measures recently introduced.

 

Oil price recovery

Oil prices rose on Monday morning amid a slow recovery in Mexican production.

The cost of Brent crude futures for November was $73.45 per barrel, up 0.7% and + 2.1% on Friday,
and West Texas Intermediate crude for October was $70.26 per barrel, up 0.8% and + 2.3% on Friday.

More than two weeks after the hurricane, production facilities providing nearly half of US production from the Gulf of Mexico are still pending,
according to data from the US Bureau of Safety and Environment Affairs.

Oil production issues in the Gulf of Mexico remain the main argument for oil optimists.

The recovery in oil production after Hurricane Ida was slower than the recovery of oil refining in Louisiana.

The proportion of oil production infrastructure in the US sector of the Gulf of Mexico that is in the process of renovation is between 60% and 75%.

In the meantime, a new tropical storm Nicholas is approaching the Texas coast, but it could also bring heavy rain and wind to the Louisiana coast.

The authorities of the People’s Republic of China plan to publish information on oil sale auctions from strategic reserves.

However, many market participants believe that this is more of a psychological factor to contain price increases than a real impact on supply volumes.

Goldman Sachs experts note that the problems caused by the hurricane have led to a fall in US stocks of about 30 million barrels, and the fall could rise to 40 million barrels. 

Meanwhile, analysts expect oil to become the leading commodity in terms of fourth-quarter growth rates.

Data from the oil field service company, Baker Hughes, released last Friday, showed an increase in the number of oil production units operating in the United States last week by seven – to 401.

 

Gold is declining due to US dollar pressure

Commodity prices were trading mixed as most goods in the non-agricultural sector extending gains for the week except for alloys. 

Gold prices traded lower amid the strong dollar and the Fed’s low forecasts.

With no change in ECB policy and supply concerns, core metals rose with strong demand forecasts.

The price of spot gold at COMEX fell by more than 2% to $1787.58 an ounce during the week.

Alloy prices have fallen as gold prices posted their first weekly loss in the past five weeks against the backdrop of US Federal Reserve concerns of declining assets. 

Precious metals are traded under pressure on the strong dollar and concerns that higher inflation will raise the Fed’s declining prospects. 

The Federal Stimulus Program and other monetary easing have been blamed for increasing price pressure,
with the US Federal Reserve buying $120 billion in bonds and other assets since the outbreak of Covid-19 in March 2020 to support the economy. 

Friday’s US producer price data rose 8.3% in August, the biggest rise in a decade, adding to the pressure on alloy prices.

The dollar index recovered strongly, gaining 0.59% to 92.58 during the week.

A positive start in Asian markets and oil posts new gains

Oil prices rise after Ida hurricane

Oil prices rise after Ida hurricane

Oil prices rise after the Ida hurricane: International oil markets were affected by the evacuation of the biggest companies
in the Mexican gulf since Thursday 26th August 2021 when they began to evacuate workers on offshore platforms.

Other companies stopped oil and gas production before the tropical storm Ida which produced the hurricane later,
since offshore wells in the gulf shape nearly 17% of the American production.

On Tuesday about 79% of USA production in the Gulf remained inoperative,
as 79 platforms remained out of order for more than a week since the strike of the hurricane Ida.

About 17.5 million barrels of crude oil have been taken out of the market up till now.

Traders are waiting for any data by the API about the American stockpiles that were expected to be released today.

Traders are still waiting for data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) tomorrow to get a clear image
of the hurricane’s effects on oil production and refineries production.

 

Topics:

  1. Analysts’ predictions for the current position
  2. Yesterday oil prices
  3. Today’s oil prices
  4. Oil companies developments effects on the market
  5. China increases its crude oil imports in August
  6. Chevron seeks to sell Eagle Ford assets
  7. Only nine companies in Brazil’s next auction
  8. Gazprom finishes Nord stream2 pipeline
  9. Total Energies signs a big contract with Iraq
  10. Adnoc sells 7.5% of its drilling unit
  11. Saudi Arabia markets Guyana’s crude oil
  12. Mexico tries to pay off debts of PEMEX

 

Analysts’ predictions for the current position

According to a survey by Reuters analysts expected a decline by 3.8 million barrels of stockpiles by the week ending September 3rd,
gasoline stockpiles would decline by 3.6 million barrels, and a decline by 3 million barrels of distillate stockpiles.

Yesterday oil prices

Oil prices fell vastly on Tuesday as dollar prices rose due to fears of the rise of Covid-19 infections in the USA and Asia which would delay the growth.

The strict reductions made by Saudi Arabia for October 2021 also aroused concerns about oil demand recovery in Asia
as OPEC restarts part of its suspended production gradually.

While the cut In production in the USA still hinders crude oil production in the Mexican gulf.

IT seems that offer restrictions aren’t efficient to stop oil prices decline.

On Tuesday Brent crude was less than 72$ in trades, while West Texas Intermediate crude was for 68.5$ a barrel.

Today’s oil prices

Oil prices rose on Wednesday 8th September, reducing yesterday’s losses as producers in the American Mexican gulf restarted operations after nine days of the Ida hurricane strike.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contracts were up 27 cents or 0.4% to 68.62$ a barrel, after Tuesday’s decline of 1.4% on labor day vacation.

Brent crude futures contracts were up 14 cents or 0.2% to 71.83$ a barrel, after Tuesday’s decline by 0.7%.

Oil companies developments effects on the market

The Italian oil and gas company ENI (Listed in New York stock exchange under the code NYSE:E) contributed with an oil exchange company headquartered in Emirates to collaborate on projects of Hydrogen and carbon capturing around the world fosters its existence in Emirates.

British petroleum company (NYSE:BP) collaborated with the investing company Macquarie Group ASX:MQG to establish a potential green hydrogen center to be built in the Kwinana refinery which is closed for now.

Canadian pipelines company Enbridge (TSE:ENB)  will buy logistics services company Moda Midstream which concentrates on the gulf coast,
which will give the company access to the Ingleside station that belongs to Moda company and other channels as the Cactus II pipeline.

China increases its crude oil imports in August

Chinese buyers increased their imports throughout the last month,
according to data by the Chinese customs, to reach 10.5 million barrels per day of crude oil by 8% monthly.

As refinery restrictions continued due to a lack of importing shares,
companies controlled by the state conducted most of the buying operations.

Chevron seeks to sell Eagle Ford assets

Reports showed that Chevron, the biggest American company ( listed in the New York stock exchange under the code NYSE:CVX)
is trying to sell its oil and gas assets of Eagle Ford in Texas, inherited by its foreclose of Noble Energy last year, for 3.8 billion dollars.

Only nine companies in Brazil’s next auction 

The next round of bidding held by Brazil’s organization for oil had only nine companies registered, the lowest number ever registered,
although the list includes giant oil companies such as ExxonMobil(NYSE:XOM), Chevron(NYSE;CVX),
Shell(NYSE:RDS), and Total Energies(NYSE:TTE).

Gazprom finishes Nord stream2 pipeline

The giant Russian company Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) finished a gas channel pipeline under the sea of 11 billion dollars,
only the wilding works between the German and Denim sectors are left,
so Gazprom stocks rose on Monday by more than 4% on the day.

Total Energies signs a big contract with Iraq

The French giant company Total Energies (listed in New York stock exchange under the code NYSE:TTE) signed a big deal with Iraq of 27 billion dollars to build
a lot of installations to shift seawater to southern oil fields, and gas processing factory of 2 billion dollars to decrease Iraq’s dependence on Iranian gas,
and also establishing solar power station.

Adnoc sells 7.5% of its drilling unit 

Emirates national oil company Adnoc declared that it would offer 7.5% of its drilling company in the second public subscription in October,
Adnoc previously offered 5% in 2018 to go to Baker Hughes ( listed in New York stock exchanges under the code NYSE:BKR) for 550 million dollars.

Saudi Arabia markets Guyana’s crude oil

Guyana’s government chose ATL the commercial arm of Saudi Aramco( trade:2222) located in London to market its next share of crude oil,
it offered a bid of 0.025% a barrel as a potential commission which indicates the potential winner in the country a long time ago.

Mexico tries to pay off debts of PEMEX

The Mexican president Lopez Obrador assumed that Mexico would use the fund presented by the International Monetary fund by allocating 12 billion dollars in special drawing rights to pay off PEMEX’s 115 billion dollars debts.

Oil prices rise after the Ida hurricane

FX Broker Evest sets up shop in South Africa

FX Broker Evest sets up shop in South Africa:

 

One source, who requested anonymity, told Finance Feeds,
that the SA’s financial watchdog is set to grant its regulatory consent and
that they are “in the final process to get a South African license”.

CySEC-regulated brokerage firm Evest is seeking a license from South Africa’s Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) after it has incorporated its new subsidiary.

 

Evest plans to leverage the new license to expand its brokerage business
in Africa and meet its growth targets for Latin America, the source added,
noting that the SA approval allows them to target several jurisdictions. Read more…

FX Broker Evest sets up shop in South Africa

US Oil inventories fall by 4.045 million barrels

US Oil inventories fall by 4.045 million barrels

US Oil inventories fall by 4.045 million barrels: On Tuesday 31th august 2021 the American petroleum institute (API) declared a decline
by 4.045 million barrels in crude stockpiles by the week ending August 27th, yet crude stockpiles fell by more than 62 million barrels in 2021, according to data by the API.

Analysts expected a decline of 2.833 million barrels throughout the week.

Last week the API declared a lower by 1.622 million barrels, down analysts’ expectations by 2.367 million barrels.

The API declared that gasoline stocks rose by 2.711 million barrels by the week ending August 27th compared with last week’s drop by 985.000 barrels.

Distillate stockpiles fell by 1.961 million barrels throughout the week, compared with last week’s decline by 245.000 barrels.

This week Cushing stockpiles rose by 2.128 million barrels, after last week’s drop by 485.000 barrels.

 

Topics:

  1. Oil prices for the week
  2. Oil production weekly rates
  3. OPEC’s decisions to increase crude oil production
  4. Oil companies preparations before Ida hurricane

 

Oil prices for the week

On Tuesday Oil prices declined before OPEC’s meeting to decide on the short term shape of the oil market,
OPEC is discussing its plan to provide an extra 400.000 barrels daily to the market every month. 

West Texas Intermediate crude declined 0.95% by Tuesday afternoon before data publishing.

West Texas intermediate reached 68.80$ in trades before midday (one-dollar rise in the week),
Brent crude fell 0.56% to 73$ a barrel on the day.

 

Oil production weekly rates

While American stockpiles continued to drop, the American oil crude production rose to 11.4 million barrels for the second week in a row.)

OPEC’s decisions to increase crude oil production

OPEC supplies the biggest amount of crude oil since April 2020, according to Reuters,
after OPEC allies agreed on decreasing OPEC’s reductions by 400.000 barrels per day every month from August.

OPEC of 13 members produce 26.93 million barrels per day in August, by 210.000 BPD rise compared with predicted production of July,
according to Reuters OPEC source’s surveys, petroleum companies sources and advisors,
and trucks tracking data Although OPEC increased its production of oil, profits were low than expected due to the cut in production in member countries.

This rise in production follows OPEC’s decision on July 18th to supply an extra 400.000 BPD monthly from August till OPEC lifted all production reductions of 5.8 million barrels per day. OPEC agreed to extend the deal from April 2020 to December 2022.

The ten members of OPEC sticking to the agreement share 253.000barrels daily of the monthly rise in OPEC’s production of 400.000 barrels per day,
according to OPEC’S numbers, by Reuters.

The biggest oil producers in the gulf raised their production in August, Saudi Arabia,
the biggest oil producer provided 180.000barrels of daily supplies, according to Reuter’s survey;
it was the biggest rise amongst OPEC members.

Iraq as the second oil exporter in OPEC raised its exports, while the United Arab of Emirates which opposed OPEC at the meeting raised its production by 40.000 BPD in accordance with its monthly share.

The cut in production in Nigeria and Libya restricted OPEC supplies to the market, according to the report.

Shell declared on August 15th the strongest exports of Forcados from Nigeria as it witnessed the biggest loser in an offer of 100.000 barrels per day.

Libya as not included in OPEC’S reductions witnessed a lower in production in August because of the leak in a pipeline at the beginning of the month.

 

Oil companies preparations before Ida hurricane

Oil production biggest companies in the Mexican gulf evacuated workers on sea platforms on Thursday,
some stopped production of oil and gas before the tropical storm Ida which is predicted to produce a hurricane in the gulf in the next few days.

Companies spokespersons mentioned to Reuters that Chevron, Shell, Bp, BHP, and Equinor evacuated workers of sea platforms.

Shell, Bp, and BHP suspended production on platforms.

Equinor r’s officials mentioned to Reuters that the company is preparing to evacuate workers on the Titan platform.

Chevron and BHP evacuated the non-essential staff. On Thursday chevron continued the production to its levels.

Refineries on the gulf coast are preparing themselves for bad weather circumstances, but operations were ordinary till Thursday.

The national hurricane centre mentioned in a warning late on Thursday that the centre of the tropical storm is expected to cross over the southeast and centre of the gulf by Fridays and Saturdays at midnight.

The hurricane is expected to approach the gulf coast of the USA by Sunday.

The maximum speed of wind is expected to be nearly 40 miles per hour and extensively blew.

Ida is expected to cross over the southern east of the Mexican gulf in a couple of days;
the centre added that Ida would be in its entire power when it approaches the northern gulf coast.

Ida is the ninth storm of the Atlantic Ocean hurricanes season this year.

In June oil producers companies evacuated their employees, the Mexican gulf producers evacuated employees before June’s storm,
Occidental Petroleum and Chevron were amongst the companies that conducted the evacuation operations of platforms.

Last year the season witnessed more than 30 storms, most of them hit the oil and gas shore sector,
forcing nearly 90% of production capacity to close beside the capacity of refining on the gulf coast.

US Oil inventories fall by 4.045 million barrels

Oil declines slightly and positive morale in the European market

Oil declines slightly and positive morale in the European market

Oil declines slightly and positive morale in the European market:

The oil is falling at the beginning of the session

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell on Tuesday morning after Monday’s tumultuous session,
which eventually saw a modest 0.68% increase. 

The US oil production ceases due to Hurricane Ida and the projected increase in production by OPEC + are major factors affecting the market at the moment.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude in the morning part of Tuesday’s session fell by 0.25% to $69.04 per barrel,
after ending Monday’s 0.68% rise at $69.21 per barrel.

Oil prices closed higher on Monday, driven by uncertainty over the reopening of platforms
and refineries in Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ida.

The North Sea Brent crude barrel for October delivery in London closed up 0.97%, or 71 cents, to $73.41.

New York

In New York, the future with the same maturity as a US barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.68%, or 47 cents, to $69.21.

After turning red at the start of the session, as traders interacted with early reports of Ida’s relatively limited impact on oil infrastructure, the market gave way to madness.

Overall, since the beginning of August, West Texas Intermediate crude futures have fallen by 6.61%,
although they are still close to 12% above the two-month low set in the middle of the month.

Prices of raw materials were affected, among other things,
by disappointing data from the Chinese economy.

China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index reached 50.1 points in August. 

Which is a fall compared to the 50.4 points in July.

China’s services sector data looks worse: In this case, the procurement managers’ index was only 47.5 points,
compared to 53.3 points a month earlier.

This raises concerns about the pace of recovery of the Chinese economy in the coming months
and the increase in fuel demand in the largest oil importing country in the world.

China and the development of the epidemic in Asian countries

Concerns about the situation in China and the development of the pandemic in Asian countries are a source of alarm for the representatives of OPEC +,
who will discuss how to maintain the group’s plan to increase the production of raw materials by 400 thousand extra barrels per day, on Wednesday.

Impact of Hurricane Ida

In terms of demand, the impact of Hurricane Ida on oil platforms and refineries in the southeastern United States is strong.

Currently, 95% of oil and gas production from production facilities in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico is inactive.

This is less than 1/5 of total US oil production.

Louisiana’s refining sector is paralyzed, and early announcements from local authorities alert power outages for another two to three weeks.

According to the latest figures released Monday by the Bureau of Environmental and Security Regulation (BSEE),
shutdowns and evacuations of facilities in the Gulf of Mexico continue to deprive the region of approximately 95% of its production.

“ِِAll offshore platforms appear to have only sustained limited damage,”
said Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates, based in Houston, Texas, near Louisiana.

However, these installations traditionally transport the extraction product to onshore storage tanks “located in low-altitude areas” in relation
to sea level and are therefore likely to have been flooded, the consultant warned.

“Emergency operations are still in their infancy, so we have very little information on the extent of the damage,” Andy Lebow recalls.

The market is also concerned about the situation of refineries in the region, some of which were in the Ida Pass.

Andy Lebow said about 12 percent of US refining capacity was still closed on Monday.

In response to a question from AFP, ExxonMobil Oil Group said that its facilities were “not significantly damaged during the storm.”

However, the group did not authorize the full operational date again.

Marathon Petroleum Group

Marathon Petroleum Group said it was working on a timetable to restore the Greville refinery,
located just west of New Orleans, which had shut down before Ida’s arrival.

In Bell Chas, in the southern suburbs of New Orleans, U.S. oil tanker Phillips
66 was assessing the case of the Alliance refinery on Monday,
which had been shut down on Saturday.

Uncertainty remained over whether electricity would be restored in Louisiana,
where nearly a million homes were still without electricity until Monday.

Gold and silver rise and reduce losses

Gold and silver rose during the night to reduce some of the losses seen during the main session. 

The trading of yellow metal returned at $1817 an ounce, while the trading of silver at $24.15 an ounce.

Collective hikes for European indices in early trading

Less than half an hour after launch, Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose by 0.24%, Ftse Mib futures in Milan by 0.24%,
Dax Index futures in Frankfurt by 0.11%, Ftse 100 futures in London by 0.38%,
Cac 40 in Paris by 0.2%, Ibex 35 in Madrid by 0.09%,
and Aex in Amsterdam by 0.38%.

Investors, who are awaiting EU inflation data and US consumer confidence,
are already looking into important US employment data, arriving on Friday,
which could help dispel remaining doubts about the start of the so-called tapering. 

The president of the US Central Bank, Jerome Powell, predicted a cautious approach to reducing the federal economic stimulus,
but markets required more precise indicators.

Oil declines slightly and positive morale in the European market

Oil rises over 10% and Hurricane Ida supports crude

Oil rises over 10% and Hurricane Ida supports crude

Oil rises over 10% and Hurricane Ida supports crude: World oil prices rose 10% over the week,
the strongest weekly gain since May 2020. 

Evest follows developments in the oil trading market in the following report: 

West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 10.6% to $68.74 per barrel for the fourth and final week of August,
the highest closing since August 12 and the largest weekly rise since June 2020.

Why did oil rise strongly last week?

One reason for the rally is that oil companies in the Gulf of Mexico began closing production before Hurricane Ida,
which is expected to hit the coast early next week, protecting mining bases. 

This storm has been classified as devastating like Hurricane Laura Katrina.

In the past, Hurricane Katrina destroyed five states along the Gulf of Mexico,
cut oil supplies by 1.53 million barrels per day, and continued for weeks on end.

In 2020, Hurricane Delta also led companies to cut their production by 1.69 million barrels per day.

Latest coronavirus outbreak

An additional factor was that traders remained confident that fuel demand would return,
once China managed to curb the latest coronavirus outbreak and Pfizer Bionic Corporation obtained full approval for the Covid-19 vaccine from the Food and Drug Administration.

However, concerns about growing delta boom cases still stand, with some countries in the Asia-Pacific region,
including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand, imposing new restrictions to combat the outbreak of the new pandemic.

Crude oil prices rose sharply this week and, according to experts, they are expected to rise in the future.

The sharp increase also reversed last week’s recession.

At the time, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 9% and Brent crude 7.6%,
simultaneously marking the worst week since October last year.

“Traders are pushing up crude oil prices in anticipation of production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and expectations that OPEC+  will refuse to increase production given the risk of the spread of the coronavirus Delta variant, which could weaken demand for crude oil,” said Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA. 

The Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 17% of crude oil production in the United States. 

the US Bureau of Environmental Safety and Environmental Enforcement

According to a report by the US Bureau of Environmental Safety and Environmental Enforcement,
crude oil producers have shut down 91% of their production in the Gulf of Mexico since last Saturday, as Hurricane Ida approached.

The fire at an oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday forced the Pemex Group to stop operating 125 wells in the area.

Pemex’s president announced a return to normalcy on August 30.

But production in the Gulf of Mexico may also be disrupted by the ninth climate event of this season, Ida.

Karsten Fritsch, an analyst at Kommersbank, noted that on the U.S. side of the Gulf, “several oil companies are starting to evacuate their platforms and suspend production” because of this storm, which will turn into a hurricane on Sunday.

In addition, the number of oil rigs operating in the United States in the week ending August 27 increased by five units to 410 units,
according to Baker Hughes Oil Field Services. 

The United States dollar falling also helped boost crude oil prices.

The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement that gradual decline
was not linked to an increase in interest rates caused the US dollar to fall. 

Powell said it is going to decline at the end of this year, but when the decline ends,
interest rates won’t be raised immediately.

Meanwhile, Matt Maley, strategist at Miller Tabak, finds that crude oil prices are 50% likely to rise based on technical analysis.

“Crude oil appears to be a golden crossover pattern on the weekly chart,” Mali said, as reported by CNBC International, Thursday.

The golden cross occurs when the smaller moving average (MA) crosses the average of the larger moving from bottom to top.

In this case, the 50-day moving average intersects the 200-day moving average on the weekly chart.

Mali said that since 2009, there have been only 3 gold intersections, followed by a sharp increase in prices, by about 20% to 50%.

Last week trading days

Light West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $68.67 per barrel,
and world benchmark Brent crude was at $71.67 during the week.

At the end of the last session of the week, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 2.3%, and Brent oil rose by 2%.

“Between Storm Ida, burning a rig in the Gulf of Mexico, and improved demand in the US and Asia,
everything coincided with a very positive week,” James Williams of WTRG Economics told AFP.

The crucial market event will be held on Wednesday with the meeting of OPEC +,
an organization made up of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten allies.

The group should assess its current policy, defined on July 18,
of continuing to increase production slightly after cutting it dramatically last year to counteract lower demand and prices,
in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

OPEC has taken a prior decision to gradually increase production according to the state of the general market,
which it has recently introduced after production cuts to support prices,
after the major crisis that the oil market was exposed to as a result of the Coronavirus. 

The COVID-19 has been affecting the commodity’s performance for nearly two years,
with the aviation sector, one of the largest affected sectors by the virus has been affected by oil.

Oil rises over 10% and Hurricane Ida supports crude

US Oil inventories fall by 1.6 million barrels

US Oil inventories fall by 1.6 million barrels

US Oil inventories fall by 1.6 million barrels: On Tuesday 24th August 2021 the American petroleum institute (API) declared
a decline by 1.622 million barrels in crude stockpiles by the week ending August 20th,
yet crude stockpiles fell by more than 58 million barrels in 2021, according to data by the API.

This week analysts expected a decline of 2.367 million barrels.

Last week the API declared a lower by 1.13 million barrels which are less than 1.259 million barrels were expected by analysts

The API declared that gasoline stocks lowered by 985.000 barrels by the week ending August 20th compared with last week’s drop by 1.1979 million barrels.

Distillate stockpiles fell by 245.000 barrels this week, compared with last week’s rise by 502.000 barrels.

This week Cushing stockpiles fell by 485.000 barrels, after last week’s drop by 1.735 million barrels.

Oil prices for the week

Oil prices began to rise on Monday and continued to rise on Tuesday to offset consecutive losses a week ago when fears of low oil demand began.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3% by Tuesday afternoon before data publishing.

West Texas intermediate reached 67.75$ in trades by midday (more than one dollar in the week), Brent crude rose 3.58% to 71.21$ per barrel.

Oil production weekly rates

While American stockpiles continued to drop, the American oil crude production rose to 11.4 million barrels
for the next week in a row (100.000 barrels per day rise throughout the week).

A big oil company’s contributions to stop the covid-19 spread

Chevron Corporation, the big American company, required its employees to receive COVID-19 vaccinations and studies to make it compulsory for its entire labor force,
according to Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Monday.

Briden Brydell Chevron’s spokesperson said that the traveling international employees, those on ships flying the American flag,
and expatriate employees are required to receive COVID-19 vaccinations.

Chevron will require its employees in the Mexican gulf and the support staff on the beach to receive vaccinations by November.

“The company is committed to protecting our nation,
we see that vaccines are the best protection against the virus,” BRIDEN said.

The company studies if it is possible for its employees to receive vaccinations in all working units depending on the affordability of vaccines in countries Chevron has branches in and depending on virus spread in all working units.

Chevron of 47.000 employees witnessed infections amongst its employees that delayed its plans to get employees back to offices in California and Texas.

Chevron as one of the first oil and gas companies needs vaccines as the sector suffers a delay in work and taking shifts onshore platforms since the strike of the virus.

Hess Corporation requires vaccines for its employees in the Mexican gulf
by November 1st. Valero Energy Corporation also requires its new employees to receive vaccinations.

Refiner Phillips 66 does not require to afford vaccines although it strongly encourages employees to receive vaccinations,
Greg Garland is the chairman and chief executive officer of WSJ. In the UK,
oil & gas UK said that it encourages all members of the labor force to receive COVID-19 vaccinations.

Libya needs to increase oil production to begin an economic recovery

“In the next year, Libya needs to increase its oil production by 40% as it is the main and only source of foreign currency income
in order to afford expenditures and get the economic activity back as it was affected by ten years of civil war.”Saddek Elkaber in an interview with Bloomberg, on Monday.

He also said that Libya’s current production is 1.3 million barrels per day, and these production rates should rise in 2022.

Libya as not included in OPEC’s reductions should raise its daily production to 1.8 million barrels in 2022.

Saddek also mentioned to Bloomberg that these production rates would get 35 billion dollars
if it stabilized and in case the prices reached 60$ per barrel.

This year as oil production is stabilized Libya would get revenues of 25 billion dollars, according to statements by the governor of the central bank.

That will be great progress as Libya only gets 3.6 billion dollars in 2020 as its oil exports stopped
for eight months since its exporting stations were surrounded,
yet Libya would face a problem in increasing its production rates to these levels.

“Libya would increase its oil production to 1.6 million barrels per day by half of 2022
if the sector did not get the funding needed.” Oun Libya’s oil minister to Agenza Nova last month.

The lack of money needed for infrastructure maintenance and repairs and the conflict between the minister
and Mustafa Sanalla chairman of the national oil corporation would hinder Libya’s attempts to raise production
to 1.6 million barrels that were produced for the last time during Al-Qadhafi’s rule, ten years ago.

Uganda suspends non-governmental organizations for oil projects

Uganda suspended 54 non-governmental organizations for not being committed to domestic laws
including organizations defending the people’s rights in planned oil projects in the African country.

Uganda says that these organizations interfere in domestic policies.

Uganda assigned in previous time this year an agreement with Tanzania and two main oil companies
to establish a pipeline of 3.5 billion dollars to shift Uganda’s oil to the Tanzanian coast to international markets.

Crude oil pipeline project in east Africa by a length of 1443km
will shift oil from Uganda to Tanga port in Tanzania,
as Uganda owns nearly 6.5 billion barrels of crude oil it is working hard to encourage foreign investments.

Uganda aims to improve the oil and gas industry greatly in the next ten years,
at the current time, about 1.4 billion barrels are thought to be restored.

US Oil inventories fall by 1.6 million barrels

Oil is declining by more than 8% during the week and pessimism prevails in the market

Oil is declining by more than 8% during the week and pessimism prevails in the market

Oil is declining by more than 8% during the week and pessimism prevails in the market: The Covid-19 epidemic continues to put pressure on oil prices,
especially as the Delta variant spread increases around the world, affecting global demand,
and causing prices to fall sharply, which happened last week.

At the end of the trading week, the West Texas Intermediate light crude price for the October 2021 delivery was recorded on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $61.86 per barrel, while the Brent crude price for October delivery settled at $61.86 per barrel.

Last week’s tally was down 8% and 9% respectively compared to the start of the trading week.

This significant decline shows the extent to which prices are affected by the Covid-19 virus,
and the Delta variant, which is now spreading in many parts of the world. 

Evest follows all developments in the commodity trading markets, especially oil, and relays them to you in the following report. 

Why did oil decline at this significant portion?

The price of crude oil market entered the trading week starting August 16 to August 20 with a pessimistic outlook,
especially as the Delta variant of the coronavirus dominated events, and its impact on supply and production chains.

Many crude oil-consuming countries, such as the United States and China, have reinstated disease prevention and travel restrictions.

The intense summer heat is over, and the end of the summer holiday in Europe puts considerable pressure on the likelihood of a decline in demand for crude oil,
which is also causing oil prices to decline over the coming week.

Political unrest in Afghanistan is also a negative factor affecting oil prices today,
with many international airlines having to suspend flights across the country’s airspace before finding a suitable new timetable.

International Energy Agency (IEA): Lowers its expectations for global oil demand

According to a monthly report from the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will increase by 5.3 million barrels per day,
to an average of 96.2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2021, down 500 thousand barrels per day from previous forecasts.

The IEA report said world oil demand “suddenly reversed” last month and fell slightly after increasing by 3.8 million barrels per day in July,
due to the Covid-19 pandemic, where strong developments have hampered the activities of many Asian countries.

The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics has just released data that in July 2021,
the country’s refining capacity was only 13.96 million barrels per day,
down 6% from the record 14.86 million barrels per day recorded in June 2021,
and down 9% from the same period in 2020.

Many major banks also provided less positive expectations on oil demand.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the oil supply deficit will shrink from 2.3 million barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day in the short term,
pointing to declining demand in August and September. 

The Center for Commodity Research (PM Commodities Research) considers that “the momentum of recovery has slowed the recovery of world demand in August,” only about 98 million barrels per day as in July.

Demand decline.. and increased production

While demand for crude oil tends to weaken, in the opposite direction,
the International Energy Agency has said that world oil production is on an upward trend after OPEC + production has increased.

Data from Baker Hughes services showed that US crude oil production rose to 11.4 million barrels per day in the last week,
and the number of rigs continued to record the third consecutive week of increase.

China also reportedly withdrew some crude from its strategic reserves in July,
despite the country’s refining capacity falling to its lowest level in more than a year.

This means that the supply of oil on the crude oil market is increasing in abundance and there is a risk of surplus.

The above factors occur under the implementation of the OPEC + road map to increase production by 400 thousand barrels per day from August 2021 to the end of 2021.

Positive signs

However, oil prices have shown many positive signs in the crude oil market.

That is, European countries continue to ease and reopen many economic and social activities.

Global economic growth showed signs of slowing, but it has been in place and did not fall into recession.

Retail sales in the Chinese economy grew 8.5 percent on an annual basis in July,
below expectations of 11.5 percent provided by Reuters after an earlier poll.

Chinese industrial production also rose in July, 7.8% lower than expected, up only 6.4%.

In the United States, Michigan consumer expectations and consumer confidence data just released in August were also lower than those previously released,
with Michigan consumer expectations reaching only 65.2 points, well below Investing expectations of 85.0 and 79.0 for July. 

Consumer confidence in Michigan in August was preliminary at 70.2, lower than Michigan forecast and July’s reading of 81.2.

What will happen next week? 

Tomorrow we will enter a new trading week, with almost the same expectations, especially with the increased prevalence of the Covid-19 Delta variant,
but at the same time, investors are trying to cling to any positive news that might support prices. 

An important report that investors will follow this week, and that will affect prices, is the US Crude Inventory Report,
published by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday, and the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Oil is declining by more than 8% during the week and pessimism prevails in the market