A good day for stock markets around the world.. Oil turns
A good day for stock markets around the world.. Oil turns: Trading has been resumed today,
after the Easter holiday in many countries, as oil has been able to restore the upward trend at a time when there was a major recovery for global stock markets.
Evest is daily following up developments in the economic arena.
Oil is trying to restore the bullish process
On Tuesday, oil prices rose again, after the previous retreating of more than 4%,
when markets were significantly affected by OPEC’s + oil producers’ decision to increase production during the coming months.
when markets were significantly affected by OPEC’s + oil producers’ decision to increase production during the coming months.
Market sentiments were supported by information received from the US and Chinese services sectors.
This indicates continued economic recovery
Brent crude price reached $ 62.55 a barrel, representing an increase of 40 cents (0.64%) compared to the previous session.
West Texas Intermediate crude contracts for May delivery rose by 44 cents (0.75%) to record $ 59.09 a barrel.
On Monday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude declined by 4.6%, while the price of Brent crude fell by 4.2%.
Price of North Sea Oil Mix Brent futures for June delivery recorded $ 62 a barrel,
at the time when US light oil of West Texas Intermediate price fell to less than $ 59 a barrel.
at the time when US light oil of West Texas Intermediate price fell to less than $ 59 a barrel.
The prevailing mood in oil markets was supported by information received
from the United States regarding acute growth in activity in the US service sector last month.
from the United States regarding acute growth in activity in the US service sector last month.
According to Monday’s data, the relevant indicators reached a record level.
On Tuesday, it was added that information from China stating that the local services
the sector had accelerated its growth rate to the highest level in 3 months during March.
the sector had accelerated its growth rate to the highest level in 3 months during March.
One of the other things that supported oil today, is that in response to analysts’ estimates,
there is little chance of a breakthrough in talks on the Iranian nuclear agreement,
which means that there is no need to rely on more Iranian raw materials in fuel markets.
there is little chance of a breakthrough in talks on the Iranian nuclear agreement,
which means that there is no need to rely on more Iranian raw materials in fuel markets.
the Iranian Ministry for Foreign Affairs
On Saturday, the Iranian Ministry for Foreign Affairs announced that it
rejects any solution that could lead to a “gradual” lifting of US sanctions against Tehran.
rejects any solution that could lead to a “gradual” lifting of US sanctions against Tehran.
This position is related to Friday’s announcement that, as of Tuesday,
Iran and the United States will hold indirect talks in Vienna as a part of broader
negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Iran and the United States will hold indirect talks in Vienna as a part of broader
negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement.
US Ministry of Affairs spokeswoman, Ned Brais said that talks would take place
in working groups to be formed by European Union with other participants, including Iran.
in working groups to be formed by European Union with other participants, including Iran.
Representative of the European Union said that when negotiating a list of sanctions that the United States could lift,
besides nuclear obligations that Iran had to fulfill, “we must reach an agreement”.
besides nuclear obligations that Iran had to fulfill, “we must reach an agreement”.
Former US President Donald Trump
Former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2018 nuclear agreement and he re-imposed sanctions on Iran,
prompting Tehran to break some nuclear restrictions under the agreement.
prompting Tehran to break some nuclear restrictions under the agreement.
President Joe Biden wants to revive this deal, but Washington and Tehran disagree on who should take the first step.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the “Road” new Iranian nuclear agreement “will likely take several months”.
They repeat their positive view regarding rising oil prices.
On other hand, exports of Iranian crude oil increased this year – by an estimated amount of 2.7 million barrels a day- but further increases in supply are unlikely to happen until 2023, according to Goldman Sachs experts’ estimations.
Iranian nuclear talks
Iranian nuclear talks, together with high numbers of Coronavirus cases in some regions of the world,
will mean that oil prices will remain very volatile.
will mean that oil prices will remain very volatile.
Iran’s penetration of agreement is unlikely to happen and even if it does,
the oil market will be able to absorb a fairly large increase in Iranian oil supplies and it will continue to use inventories.
the oil market will be able to absorb a fairly large increase in Iranian oil supplies and it will continue to use inventories.
The situation in Wall Street
On Monday, Wall Street continued to be submitted, as investors bet a strong recovery in United States economy
thanks to progress in vaccinations against Covid-19, together with important stimulus measures taken by President Joe Biden.
thanks to progress in vaccinations against Covid-19, together with important stimulus measures taken by President Joe Biden.
US stocks have already closed at high levels thanks to very encouraging economic indicators.
ISM figures were higher than expected during March.
On Friday, a recruitment report showed that 916,000 jobs were created in March.
This is the best figure since August, compared to expectations of 675,000 new jobs.
Unemployment retreated from 6.2% to record 6%, as was expected.
In addition, ISM services rose to reach 63.7 points during March.
It is the best record in the history of the index.
Shares of technology companies took advantage of a 10-years decline in Treasury bonds of United States.
In terms of statistics, the Dow Jones index rose by 1.13% to record 33,527.19 points.
It is a record closing figure. Nasdaq index rose by 1.67% to record 13705.59 points.
Prospects for a positive start in European markets
A positive start for European stock exchanges after a long holiday of Easter.
Record shutdown of Wall Street during Monday’s session gave a boost to European stocks,
thanks to good data of US labor market, which had been published on Friday within Market closures,
and strong data of the services sector, fueled by the prospect of a rapid economic recovery.
thanks to good data of US labor market, which had been published on Friday within Market closures,
and strong data of the services sector, fueled by the prospect of a rapid economic recovery.
In addition, US government bond yields remained below midweek levels.
This boosted the shares of technology companies yesterday.
Main European stock markets are expected to start the session sharply in wake of Wall Street’s positive shutdown on Monday.
Europe’s unemployment data and new International Monetary Fund estimates for the world economy are decided to be announced on Tuesday, (April 6th).
The situation is unstable in Asia
Global equities briefly touched unprecedented peaks in Asia, as they achieved 1% gains in Taiwan’s heavy-tech market.
Australian Mining Exchange and Banks also followed hikes in Wall Street.
Profit-making operations pushed the Japanese Nikkei index to a decline of 1%,
while Shanghai Composite Index also fell, despite European futures rising before the first trading session after Easter.
while Shanghai Composite Index also fell, despite European futures rising before the first trading session after Easter.