Surges Above $66 as U.S. Vows to Cripple Iranian Crude
Oil prices continued their upward momentum for the second consecutive day, fueled by renewed U.S. pressure on Iranian oil exports.
Brent crude surpassed the $66 per barrel mark, rising by nearly 2%, setting the stage for its first weekly gain this month.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near $63 per barrel.
The American move followed new sanctions on China’s Shandong Shengxing Chemical Co. Ltd.,
accused of purchasing over $1 billion worth of Iranian crude in defiance of existing sanctions.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent affirmed that Washington will intensify its efforts to isolate Iranian oil supplies from the global market.
In response, Tehran voiced strong objections, warning that such policies could derail the nascent nuclear negotiations with the United States,
amid escalating regional and global tensions.
Despite the escalation, some analysts believe the actual impact may be limited,
noting that Tehran and Beijing have built alternative financing and transport networks
that reduce dependence on the international financial system.
Adding further support to prices, U.S. government data revealed a drop in crude inventories at the Cushing,
Oklahoma delivery hub, hitting their lowest seasonal levels since 2008.
Still, gains remain modest when compared to the sharp losses earlier this month,
where prices plunged over $10 per barrel due to concerns over chaotic tariff decisions
by President Donald Trump that cast doubt on global economic growth and energy demand.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance continues to pressure member countries to adhere to output quotas.
However, recent data shows limited compliance by Iraq and Russia,
while Kazakhstan—historically non-compliant—recorded a more than 40% surge in inventories.
Amid intensifying trade tensions and unclear U.S. policy signals, gold continues to glitter as investors’ top safe haven.
The precious metal rose by 0.4% to reach $3,357.78 per ounce,
following a dramatic 3.5% leap on Wednesday—its biggest daily gain since March 2023.
The risk-off rally was driven by warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell,
who emphasized that the ongoing trade war is destabilizing markets and threatening economic resilience.
The U.S. dollar’s drop to a six-month low further bolstered gold’s rally.
Since the start of the year, gold has soared by 28%, surpassing the already strong 27% gain recorded in 2024.
Analysts attribute this exceptional performance to a mix of factors, including tariff uncertainty,
slowing economic growth, inflation concerns, and growing expectations for interest rate cuts.
By early morning in Singapore, gold stood at $3,351.79 per ounce, while silver, platinum,
and palladium also posted gains—reflecting sustained investor demand for safe-
haven assets amid global market turbulence.
Oil and Gold Reignite: U.S. Escalation Reignites Global Market Tensions
Global Markets on Edge: Oil Fluctuates While Gold Shines Amid Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Shifts
Amid intensifying trade disputes between the U.S. and China and renewed nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran,
global markets are witnessing dramatic shifts in oil and gold prices.
While oil faces pressure from supply-demand imbalances, gold continues to soar as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Struggling with Expectations and Iranian Uncertainty
Modest Gains After Sharp Losses: Oil prices saw a slight rebound after a quiet trading session on Monday. Brent crude traded above $65 per barrel,
while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $62, following a drop of nearly $10 since the start of the month.
Trade War Dents Global Demand: The ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies — the U.S. and China — has shaken global energy demand outlooks.
This led energy agencies to revise demand forecasts downward,
while fears of oversupply grew after an unexpected move by OPEC+ to increase production faster than anticipated.
Hope on the Horizon: Iran Nuclear Talks Resume: Over the weekend, high-level nuclear discussions between the U.S. and Iran
— the first since 2022 — were described by both sides as “constructive.”
Another meeting is scheduled for this Saturday in Rome,
raising the possibility that Iranian oil could return to the global market,
given Iran’s role as an OPEC member.
Forecasts Turn Cautious: OPEC reduced its oil consumption forecasts for the next two years by around 100,000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan revised its average Brent price projection for this year to $66 per barrel,
reflecting growing caution among analysts.
Gold Holds Strong
Investors Seek Refuge from Economic Storms
Near Record Highs: Gold remained steady near record levels, trading at around $3,223 per ounce,
after hitting a peak of over $3,245 on Monday.
The metal benefited from growing anxiety over potential U.S. tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.
The Safe Haven Dominates: Gold has risen more than 20% this year, supported by global market volatility and fading confidence in traditional U.S. assets like Treasury bonds.
Weakened demand for the dollar and increased inflows into gold-backed ETFs have also boosted the metal’s performance.
Fed Policy Boosts Bullion Appeal: Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller stated that trade-related inflation would likely be temporary,
and suggested that interest rate cuts are “firmly on the table” for the second half of the year.
Lower rates typically enhance gold’s appeal, as it doesn’t yield interest.
China Drives Demand: China, the world’s largest gold market, has seen a surge in both speculative trading and ETF inflows,
supporting the bullish trend. Investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026,
citing strong institutional demand and continued central bank purchases.
Global Markets on Edge: Oil Fluctuates While Gold Shines Amid Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Shifts
Oil Under Pressure from Trade Tensions, Gold on Alert
Commodity markets are witnessing significant volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and sudden shifts in economic policies,
with oil facing an unstable trajectory while gold remains in a state of cautious anticipation.
Global Turbulence Amid U.S. Tariffs and Weak Chinese Demand
Oil extended its wave of volatility as investors reacted to the unexpected shifts in U.S. tariff policy.
Following a brief relief rally sparked by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day suspension on certain tariffs,
futures returned to losses as tariffs on China were simultaneously raised to 125%.
Brent crude fell below $65 per barrel after posting its strongest daily gain since October,
while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered near $62. Analysts indicated that this rebound is unlikely to be sustainable
amid a lack of signs of de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war.
As the world’s largest oil importer, China faces internal challenges that are weighing on demand,
including a prolonged real estate crisis and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles.
Official data also showed continued consumer inflation decline and falling factory prices,
reflecting deeper economic weakness that may curb fuel and petrochemical consumption.
This comes as the OPEC+ alliance accelerated its production easing at a pace that exceeded expectations,
raising fears of a larger global supply glut—especially as parts of the oil futures curve entered into contango,
a pricing pattern signaling future price declines,
with March 2026 Brent contracts trading lower than those of the following three months.
Gold
Caution Amid Diverging Monetary Policies and Geopolitical Risks
Although detailed gold movements were absent in this round, the broader global market context suggests
that gold continues to act as a safe haven asset amid rising trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
Traditionally, gold benefits from weakening trust in the global economy, particularly during times of geopolitical instability or currency weakness.
With growing concerns about a potential global recession and China’s slowing growth,
gold may gain further support in the coming periods—especially if major economic indicators continue to disappoint.
As markets await key inflation and interest rate reports from the United States and Europe, gold remains in a watchful state,
with investors preparing for potential developments that could reshape the landscape of commodities and safe haven assets.
Oil Under Pressure from Trade Tensions, Gold on Alert
Crude oil prices recorded a slight uptick after three consecutive sessions of decline,
as a relatively calmer tone returned to the markets and investors assessed the latest developments in U.S. trade policy.
In Asian trading, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surpassed $61 per barrel after losing nearly 15% of its value over the past three days.
Meanwhile, Brent crude closed above $64, although it remains close to its lowest level in four years.
These movements come in light of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports—China being the world’s largest crude oil importer—raising new fears of a global economic recession that could weaken energy demand.
Oil prices were also affected by the OPEC+ alliance’s decision to increase production more than expected, altering market balance forecasts.
The intensifying trade war prompted major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lower their oil price forecasts for the coming quarters. Société Générale also revised its outlook downward, citing the threat posed by U.S. tariffs on the Chinese economy and global demand for crude.
Gold
Remarkable Stability Backed by Economic Concerns
Amid trade tensions, gold maintained its stability at $2,989 per ounce, benefiting from heightened demand for safe-haven assets.
This steady performance coincided with growing fears that
the global economy may enter a recession due to the escalating protectionist policies adopted by the U.S. administration.
Despite declining over the past three sessions, gold has gained more than 13% since the beginning of the year,
driven by investors’ search for safe assets during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
However, extreme market volatility may still prompt some investors to liquidate their gold holdings to cover losses elsewhere.
On the policy front, President Trump reaffirmed his commitment to the tariff plan despite warnings of a potential recession,
while expressing openness to negotiate with trade partners.
Alongside gold, silver, palladium, and platinum prices remained stable,
and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index showed little change.
Global Markets Under Tariff Pressure: Cautious Movements
Global Markets Face Volatility, Trade War Continues to Apply Pressure:
Global Markets Face Volatility as never before amid mounting uncertainty
and the continued impact of the trade war led by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The recent sharp swings across equities, bonds,
and commodities reflect investor anxiety and underscore the fragility of the global economic outlook.
After recording their worst performance, Asian stocks rebounded, ending a sharp global downturn.
Japanese and Australian equities rose at the session’s open,
alongside U.S. and European stock futures.
In contrast, Hong Kong’s futures continued to signal further losses after
the U.S.-listed Chinese stock index dropped by more than 5%.
This drop came following Trump’s threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports,
contributing to the decline of the U.S. dollar against major currencies.
On the other hand, on Tuesday, Japanese stocks jumped over 6%
After Trump had assigned two administration members to begin bilateral trade talks with Japan
following a call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba,
This was despite the continued implementation of 24% mutual tariffs and a 25% car duty.
Intense Sell-Offs in U.S. Markets
U.S. stocks experienced a massive wave of volatility.
Monday saw one of the most turbulent sessions, with the S&P 500 index moving by 7%
the most significant swing since 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although the index has not officially entered bear market territory,
investor reactions to tariff policies pushed traders to search for a “bottom” after trillions of dollars in equity value evaporated.
Distressed U.S. Bonds… and Rising Yields
In a highly volatile session, U.S. Treasury bonds dropped,
with yields rising across all maturities by at least 10 basis points
as investors liquidated positions to cover stock losses.
Australian and New Zealand bonds followed the same path.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose by 19 basis points. J.P. Morgan
analysts described this rapid shift as “confusing,” suggesting
that technical factors and low liquidity intensified the market movement.
Conflicting Messages from Trump Investors on Edge
Despite hints from Trump about potential negotiations,
he confirmed that he does not plan to backtrack on imposing additional tariffs on dozens of countries
Rajeev De Mello from Gamma Asset Management commented:
“Markets may have found a temporary bottom, but we have not yet reached stability.”
Several prominent Wall Street figures issued strong warnings.
Bill Ackman described the situation as an “economic nuclear winter,”
Boaz Weinstein said, “The collapse hasn’t truly started yet,”
and Jamie Dimon warned of “potentially catastrophic long-term consequences.”
Chris Larkin of E*Trade, a Morgan Stanley subsidiary,
stated that markets remain hostage to political headlines,
adding that periods of intense volatility often precede historic market bottoms.
Will Markets Rebound? Or Has the Worst Yet to Come?
Matt Maley from Miller Tabak predicted that a rebound would come
but warned that the market repricing process based on economic realities would take time.
Max Kettner from HSBCpointed to the possibility of a temporary rebound that may benefit the “Magnificent Seven”: Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla.
Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley emphasized that the S&P 500 index remains vulnerable to further decline amid escalating fears.
Volatility Index Remains High. Is the Fear Still Here?
Although the VIX volatility index (Cboe) has retreated from the 60-point level it reached earlier,
its futures curve continues to signal elevated volatility in the coming months,
reflecting ongoing investor anxiety.
So far, markets have not hit the extreme panic levels seen during major financial crises,
such as 85 points during the COVID-19 crash in 2020, 90 points amid the 2008 global economic crisis,
or 66 points during the yen liquidity crisis in August.
This relative decline in the VIX does not necessarily suggest that market risks have disappeared;
Instead, it may indicate that investors are holding back
and waiting for more precise signals on economic conditions and trade policy direction.
Hedge Funds Reposition Retail Investors Stay Out
According to Vincent Lin, Goldman Sachs reported a 22%
increase in hedge fund bets against U.S. assets last week—the highest in over a decade.
Richard Saperstein from Treasury Partners noted that “the absence of broad retail investor selling” remains a real threat.
Meanwhile, U.S. equity valuations dropped to their lowest levels since late 2023,
prompting many top analysts to cut their S&P 500forecasts. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas from J.P. Morgan cut his target from 6500 to 5200 points, John Stoltzfus from Oppenheimer revised his forecast from 7100 to 5950 points, Other institutions, such as Evercore ISI, Goldman Sachs, and Société Générale,
also issued similar downgrades, reflecting declining confidence in the market’s short-term outlook.
The Fed in the Spotlight Limited Options
With the uncertainty persisting, expectations are growing that the Federal Reserve
may move to cut interest rates to support the economy.
Solita Marcelli from UBS Wealth Management projected a rate cut ranging from 75 to 100 basis points,
with the S&P 500 potentially rebounding to 5800 by year-end.
Conversely, Michael Gapen from Morgan Stanley stressed that the Fed will remain
“in wait-and-see mode” unless clear signs of a recession appear.
Commodity Markets: Oil Rises, Gold Flat
Commodity markets showed mixed movements. Oilprices rose after hitting a four-year low in the previous session,
while goldremained unchanged amid widespread caution.
Conclusion: Uncertain Future and Conditional Recovery
Global markets remain caught between sharp volatility and hopes of a rebound
With the trade war, pressure continues to be applied.
This situation is unlikely to change in the near term amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding global economic policy.
Trump’s trade war intensifies signs of slowing economic growth and fears of recession,
triggering repeated waves of volatility across equities, bonds, and commodities.
Despite some temporary positive rebounds,
especially in Asian markets and select U.S. stock sectors — economic fundamentals remain fragile.
Investors are cautious, hesitating to make long-term investment decisions
without clear signals about the future of tariffs and the Fed’s monetary stance.
A sustainable recovery depends on three critical factors.
First, the U.S. administration must de-escalate trade tensions,
which are significantly contributing to global market instability.
Second, key economic indicators must clearly improve to signal that the underlying fundamentals are strengthening.
Finally, central banks must intervene decisively through interest rate cuts to support growth and restore investor confidence.
Without progress on these fronts, market volatility is likely to persist.
Political shifts and economic data will continue driving the markets until key conditions are met,
while investors worldwide await clear signals to restore confidence gradually.
Global Markets Face Volatility, Trade War Continues to Apply Pressure
Global Economy Amid Rising Eurozone Retail Chinese Gold Reserves and U.S. Market Volatility
Retail sales in the Eurozone continue to improve, the People’s Bank of China boosts its gold reserves,
while U.S. markets face sharp fluctuations amid growing geopolitical and economic concerns.
Eurozone retail sales continue annual growth in February, supported by food and non-food goods Official data released Monday by Eurostat showed accelerated growth in Eurozone retail sales during February,
driven by rising sales in both food and non-food sectors. Retail sales rose by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to 1.8% in January and 2.2% in December,
reflecting continued improvement in consumer spending across the region. This annual increase was supported by a 1.9% rise in food and beverage sales, a 2.5% rise in non-food products,
and a 0.7% increase in automotive fuel sales. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose by 0.3% in February,
backed by a 0.3% growth in food and beverage sales and a 0.2% increase in fuel sales. Among the largest Eurozone economies, Germany saw strong growth of 4.8% in retail sales year-on-year,
France recorded a 2.3% increase, while Italy experienced a decline of 1.1%.
China
People’s Bank of China continues to boost gold reserves for the fifth month amid global tensions The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continued raising its gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month in March,
signaling a deeper reliance on the precious metal as a safe haven amid rising global trade and geopolitical tensions. Data released Monday showed the bank added around 90,000 ounces to its gold reserves last month.
This comes as part of the current purchasing wave that resumed in November after a six-month pause,
which followed an 18-month streak of continuous buying. China’s move reflects a broader trend among global central banks to increase gold holdings in a bid to diversify reserves
amid uncertainty driven by U.S. economic policies under President Donald Trump. Although gold has lost some recent gains due to widespread market selloffs triggered by tariffs,
ongoing central bank purchases and inflows into global ETFs continue to support gold price expectations this year.
Futures Markets
U.S. stock futures trim losses despite “fear index” jumping to highest level since the pandemic U.S. stock futures trimmed part of their losses during pre-market trading on Monday,
despite investor fears surging to levels not seen since the COVID-19 crisis. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 2.54%,
or 1031 points, to 37,551 after having dropped more than 1,490 points earlier in the session. S&P 500 futures dropped 2.41% to 4,987, while Nasdaq 100 futures declined 2.55%, or 446 points, to 17,092. This performance came despite a jump in the Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “fear index,”
to 52.86 — its highest since January 2020 during the pandemic outbreak. Meanwhile, investors continued flocking to safe-haven assets,
with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping by 7.4 basis points to 3.596%,
after hitting 3.52% earlier — its lowest since September 2022.
Global Economy Amid Rising Eurozone Retail Chinese Gold Reserves and U.S. Market Volatility
Gold, Oil, and the Dollar: Who’s Dominating the Trading Arena?: From goldhitting record highs to oilunder pressure,
the dollar faces challenges.
Explore the top market indicators and trading opportunities this week with Evest insights.
17:00 – Canada:
Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (March)
Wednesday, April 9, 2025
05:00 – New Zealand:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, April 10, 2025
04:30 – China:
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March)
04:30 – China:
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March)
04:30 – China:
Producer Price Index (YoY) (March)
15:30 – United States:
Core Consumer Price Index (Excluding Food & Energy) (MoM) (March)
15:30 – United States:
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March)
15:30 – United States:
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March)
Friday, April 11, 2025
09:00 – United Kingdom:
Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (February) 09:00 – Germany:
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March) 10:00 – Eurozone:
Core Consumer Price Index (Excluding Food & Energy) (YoY) (March) 15:30 – United States:
Producer Price Index (MoM) (March) 15:30 – United States:
Producer Price Index (YoY) (March)
EURUSD
The EURUSDpair is trading around 1.0962,
following a strong rally last week due to weakness in the U.S. dollar.
The pair retested the supply zone near 1.1200 before experiencing a slight downward correction.
The weak dollar drives the pair’smovements,
especially following Donald Trump’s recent tariff imposition and China’s retaliatory measures.
Analysts expect the dollar to remain weak in the near term.
If the pair breaks above the 1.1205 level and closes higher, buyers may push it further toward 1.1500.
Gold
Goldcontinued to post new historical highs last week,
reaching a peak near $3,168 before beginning a bearish correction driven by profit-taking, closing around $3,037.
Despite the correction, the bullish outlook remains dominant,
especially with rising geopolitical tensions during market holidays and anticipated support at the psychological $3,000 level.
These factors may push goldback toward $3,100 and eventually $3,168.
However, the bearish scenario becomes more likely if gold breaks below $3,000 and closes under that level.
Oil
Oilexperienced a sharp sell-off last week due to rising market tensions, fears of a U.S. recession,
and slower global economic growth this year, driven by the U.S.-led trade war with its partners.
These pressures drove oilprices down to $62 as traders reacted to concerns about declining near-term demand.
If the current crisis remains unresolved, analysts anticipate that oilwill continue falling toward $60 and $57.
USDJPY
Despite the tariffs imposed on Japan, the Japanese yen strengthened last week, reaffirming its status as a safe-haven asset.
The USDJPYpair declined to 146.90. A break below 145.85, followed by a close below that level,
could trigger further downward momentum, potentially pushing the pair toward 142.00.
Nvidia Stock
Nvidiastock is trading around $94.3 after a sharp decline in recent sessions.
This decline was triggered by China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs, which exerted significant pressure on U.S. equities.
The stockcurrently trades above the $90 support level.
If it breaks below this level, sellers may extend the downward trend, potentially driving the price toward $75.
Gold, Oil, and the Dollar: Who’s Dominating the Trading Arena?:
Risk-Off Sentiment Pressures Industrial Metal Prices
Global markets witnessed a sharp decline in industrial metal prices — most notably copper, aluminum, and zinc
— following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new round of reciprocal tariffs.
These measures are viewed as a significant escalation in the global trade war,
prompting widespread investor concerns over a potential slowdown in demand for industrial commodities.
Although some metals have been exempted from direct tariffs,
the broader trade policies threaten global supply chains and cast uncertainty over industrial growth prospects,
putting substantial downward pressure on key commodity prices.
Copper in the Crossfire: Trade Flows and Pricing Disruptions
Copper prices fell by 2% on the London Metal Exchange to $9,510.5 per ton, while U.S. contracts dropped by 2.6%.
This decline reflects mounting concerns over the potential inclusion of copper in future tariffs. Aluminum is already subject to a 25% tariff under “Section 232,” and copper could follow suit in the coming weeks.
According to Citi Group analysts, copper could slide further to $8,500 per ton in Q2 2025 if trade tensions persist and global industrial growth continues to weaken.
A Shift in Investment Behavior: Safe-Haven Assets Take the Lead
As uncertainty rises, investors are increasingly turning to safe-haven assets. Gold surged to a record high of $3,167.84 per ounce, driven by global fears over the broader economic impact of Trump’s tariff strategy. Gold was notably one of the few commodities exempted from these tariffs, further enhancing its appeal.
This trend underscores a noticeable shift in investor risk appetite —
a signal for executive leadership to revisit risk management and hedging strategies.
Energy Sector
Exemptions Don’t Ensure Stability
Despite the exemption of oil and natural gas from the new tariff framework, energy markets were not immune to the volatility. Brent crude dropped 3.2% to $72.52 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell below $70.
This reaction reflects growing concerns about the broader economic implications of the trade war and its effect on global oil demand.
The White House stated that tariffs will be applied to countries with the largest trade imbalances,
granting temporary relief to Canada and Mexico.
However, increased tension with the EU and China (facing tariffs of 20% and 34% respectively)
could lead to abrupt shifts in global energy trade dynamics.
Tariffs: Geopolitical Lever or Economic Burden?
Trump framed the new tariff package as a fulfillment of campaign promises, positioning it as a tool to showcase American economic strength.
While the geopolitical goals are clear, the immediate impacts on growth, cost structures,
and supply-demand dynamics represent significant risks to industrial sectors.
Analysts like Marcus Garvey of Macquarie Group warned of the negative implications for global growth and high-risk assets,
emphasizing that the limited exemptions on commodities won’t prevent a widening gap between domestic and global pricing.
Strategic Recommendations for Executive Leaders
Evaluate Supply Chain Resilience: Reassess contracts and identify alternative raw material sources in anticipation of future restrictions.
Enhance Financial Hedging: Consider strengthening hedging positions in metals and energy to mitigate price volatility.
Monitor International Policy Developments: Closely track evolving trade disputes between the U.S. and its partners to better assess their market and operational impacts.
Update Operational Scenarios: Revise demand and cost projections based on emerging political and trade developments.
The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Metals and Energy Markets
Gold and Oil Shine on Trump Tariff Threats: Global markets are gripped by anticipation and anxiety
as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to announce a new package of tariffs
that could ignite a full-scale trade war.
Amid this climate of uncertainty, goldand oilhave emerged as the top-performing assets, each for its reasons.
Gold Shines as a Safe Haven Amid Global Uncertainty
Goldhas recently maintained its record levels,
supported by intense buying activity driven by market fears over potential economic and political fallout.
The yellow metal-stabilized at $3,125.58 per ounce after hitting an all-time high of $3,127.92 in the previous session.
This exceptional performance follows gold’sbest quarterly gain since September 1986,
with prices rising nearly 20% since the beginning of 2025.
Analysts, including Amy Gower from Morgan Stanley,
believe that strong physical demand and increased investor interest in gold-backed ETFs fuel this upward trend.
According to Gower, there’s still room for more gains,
projecting that gold could reach between $3,300 and $3,400 this year
in line with Goldman Sachs’ recent forecast upgrade to $3,300 per ounce.
Anticipated Tariffs Boost Gold’s Attractiveness
Investors are anxiously awaiting Trump’s speech on Wednesday.
The president is expected to announce broad tariffs on all U.S. trade partners,
amplifying uncertainty and driving more demand for goldas a safe-haven asset.
Notably, after several years of outflows,
holdings in gold-backed ETFs have increased by 6% since the start of the year.
Meanwhile, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain limited,
making gold more attractive despite offering no yield.
On the other hand, oilprices stabilized following a strong rally on Monday,
spurred by Trump’s remarks about imposing “secondary sanctions” on countries continuing to buy Russian oil.
Brent crude for June delivery traded near $75 per barrel after jumping 2.8% — its biggest gain since mid-January. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also climbed past the $71 mark.
Despite these gains, oil markets remain surrounded by mixed signals
ranging from geopolitical threats and sanctions on Iran and Russia to expectations of increased output from the OPEC+ alliance.
A Fragile Balance in Energy Markets
Oilended the year’s first quarter at nearly the same level it began after a volatile period.
If the U.S. tariffs are implemented, global energy demand could be negatively impacted,
potentially offsetting the supply constraints caused by sanctions.
Meanwhile, China — the world’s largest oilimporter
– posted its fastest industrial growth in March of over a year.
However, future outlooks remain unclear due to the looming impact of upcoming trade tariffs.
Safe-Haven Assets Shine Brighter in a Volatile World
Amid rising trade tensions, uncertain monetary policies,
and Trump’s aggressive rhetoric, investors view goldas a reliable haven,
while oilis a speculative tool amid geopolitical flux.
The latest market movements reflect a broader shift toward risk hedging and caution
as the world awaits critical decisions that may reshape the global economic landscape.
Gold Shines Again Amid Trade Tensions… Oil Falls Under Russian Pressure: The week began with turmoil in the financial markets, goldprices surged to new record highs driven by growing demand for safe-haven assets.
In contrast, oil prices fluctuated following sharp remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump against Russia,
raising fears of further escalation in geopolitical tensions.
Contents
Gold Surges to Record Levels
Oil Markets Under Pressure
Market Outlook Summary
Gold Surges to Record Levels Amid Rising Trade War Fears
Goldprices continued their upward trajectory, surpassing $3,093 per ounce,
breaking the previous record set last Friday, when the metal closed higher for the fourth consecutive week.
This rally comes ahead of an expected announcement from the White House
regarding a new round of reciprocal tariffs following Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on car imports.
Since the beginning of 2024, gold has climbed over 17%, hitting at least 15 new record highs.
This has been driven by heavy central bank purchases and growing demand
for hedging instruments amid rising economic and political uncertainty.
Despite reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts,
with markets now pricing in only two quarter-point cuts, goldcontinues to attract investors as a non-yielding asset that performs well during times of instability.
In this context, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for goldto $3,300 per ounce by year-end,
citing strong central bank demand and increasing flows into gold-backed ETFs.
As of 6:17 AM Singapore time, spot gold was trading up 0.2% at $3,092.49 per ounce,
while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped by 0.1%.
Meanwhile, silver and platinum held steady, and palladium slightly declined.
Oil Markets Under Pressure Amid Trump’s Threat of Sanctions on Russia
In contrast, oilprices experienced significant volatility on Monday
after President Trump expressed he was “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin,
threatening to impose strict sanctions on Russian oil exports if a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine is not reached.
Brent crude futures for June delivery traded below $73 per barrel,
while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $69.
In an interview with NBC News, Trump stated:
“If I believe Russia is responsible,
then anyone buying oilfrom them will not be allowed to do business in the United States.
We will impose 25% tariffs on all oil shipments, potentially reaching 50 percentage points.”
These remarks signal potentially far-reaching consequences for the global energy market.
As Russia is one of the world’s top three oil producers,
any move to sanction its exports could result in major supply chain disruptions,
especially for major importers like India and China,
which have been the largest buyers of Russian oil since the war began.
Russia’s crude oil exports hit their highest level in five months in March.
U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers have begun to show signs of weakening,
adding further complexity to the global energy picture.
Market Outlook Summary
Goldremains the top beneficiary as markets seek clarity amid heightened political and economic tension.
Meanwhile, energy markets are bracing for potential developments that could reshape global supply chains.
Gold Shines Again Amid Trade Tensions… Oil Falls Under Russian Pressure
