Asia Accelerates Its Shift Away from the US Dollar

Asia Accelerates Its Shift Away from the US Dollar

The move toward alternative currencies gains momentum amid rising global trade tensions

The Asian region is undergoing tangible strategic shifts in its financial and monetary policies,
with an increasing number of countries and corporations working to
reduce their reliance on the US dollar in international financial transactions.
What was once a theoretical discussion has now become a practical reality—driven by geopolitical developments,
escalating trade conflicts, and a growing desire to strengthen monetary sovereignty.

 

Contents

 

 

 

 

 

The Dollar

Losing Its Shine as a Global Reserve Currency

For decades, the US dollar was the dominant reference currency for most global transactions.
However, recent indicators—especially from Asia—reflect a
gradual erosion of trust in the dollar,
driven by a wave of sell-offs linked to US policy shifts and economic forecasts.

Corporations and financial institutions are increasingly seeking more stable or independent alternatives,
particularly amid the political and economic volatility in the United States.

 

Alternative Currencies Gain Ground

The Chinese yuan, the euro, the Hong Kong dollar, and the UAE dirham have emerged as prominent alternatives,
increasingly used in
hedging operations, trade transactions, and even lending.
In Indonesia, for example, financial institutions are preparing to launch dedicated units for yuan-based operations,
while the market is seeing a noticeable rise in demand for
non-dollar-denominated loans.

 

Moving Beyond the Dollar as a Mediating Currency

Traditionally, most international money transfers were routed through the US dollar, even when converting between two local currencies.
Today, however, companies are shifting toward direct currency swaps,
bypassing the dollar altogether to reduce transaction costs and
minimize exposure to dollar volatility.

 

 

Global Trade

Redrawing the Monetary Map

China plays a central role in reshaping global monetary flows. By signing yuan-based payment agreements with countries in Asia and Latin America and enhancing alternative platforms such as the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Beijing is working to expand the yuan’s use in international trade.
Meanwhile, Gulf countries have shown growing interest in pricing some of their oil and trade deals in alternative currencies, especially as economic ties with China deepen rapidly.

 

Market Movements Reinforce the De-Dollarization Trend

Financial analysts stress that this transition is not just a temporary trend, but rather a long-term structural shift.
While the US dollar still dominates global transactions,
rising demand for hedging against the dollar and the increasing cost of using it suggest that a new financial order may be emerging.

 

 

Reasons Behind the Shift

Not Just Economic

The shift away from the dollar is no longer merely an economic decision—it has become a geopolitical strategy.
Following Western sanctions on Russia in 2022, many nations began reevaluating their dependence on the US-led financial system, seeking ways to shield themselves from political leverage tied to the greenback.

 

Is There a Real Alternative to the Dollar?

So far, no single currency has proven capable of fully replacing the dollar.
However, a
multi-polar financial system is gradually taking shape—one where several currencies play complementary roles,
giving nations
greater flexibility in their international dealings.

 

Conclusion: The Dollar Under Scrutiny

While the dollar continues to hold its status as the world’s leading currency,
the evolving dynamics in Asia suggest that its dominance is no longer unchallenged.

As regional initiatives to reduce reliance on the dollar gather pace,
the coming years may witness a
fundamental transformation in the global monetary landscape.

 

 

Asia Accelerates Its Shift Away from the US Dollar

US Dollar Extends Weekly Losses Amid Trade Talk Optimism

US Dollar Extends Weekly Losses Amid Trade Talk Optimism

The U.S. dollar continues its downward trajectory as growing optimism around global trade negotiations prompts investors to shift away from the greenback toward alternative currencies.

 

Topic

Dollar Index Slumps

Trump’s Trade Policies Shake Markets

Speculators Raise Bearish Bets

 

 

 

 

 

Dollar Index Slumps

as Investors Favor Other Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped by 0.8%, marking its fourth weekly loss in the past five weeks.
This decline reflects rising hopes for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China,
following China’s expressed willingness to resume tariff negotiations.

As a result, investors increased their exposure to Asian and commodity-linked currencies,
with the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar all gaining over 1%.
Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. dollar has declined more than 6%,
highlighting a broader shift in market sentiment away from American assets.

 

Trump’s Trade Policies Shake Markets

and Erode Dollar’s Safe-Haven Status

Former President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade strategies have triggered significant volatility in financial markets.
Once viewed as a safe-haven asset, the dollar has lost favor among global investors.
The uncertainty caused by tariffs and trade tensions led to a
broad sell-off of U.S. assets,
reversing years of capital inflows into American markets.

Although recent economic indicators and trade signals have offered temporary support to U.S. markets,
the overall market bias continues to lean toward selling U.S. dollar holdings and reallocating capital to foreign currencies.

 

Speculators Raise Bearish Bets

Despite Strong U.S. Jobs Report

Despite a better-than-expected U.S. employment report, speculators remain heavily tilted toward a bearish outlook for the dollar.
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that
hedge funds and asset managers increased their net short positions to approximately
$17 billion, the highest level since last September.
Options markets also reflect this pessimism, with traders favoring put options (betting on a weaker dollar) over calls
(betting on a stronger dollar) ahead of the Federal Reserve’s
interest rate decision on May 7.
Even though job data suggests resilience in the U.S. labor market, markets continue to price in further downside for the greenback.

 

 

US Dollar Extends Weekly Losses Amid Trade Talk Optimism

Trump Shakes the Dollar: Worst Performance in Decades

Trump Shakes the Dollar: Worst Performance in Decades

During the early months of Trump’s presidency, the US dollar recorded its worst performance in decades,
raising investor concerns about the currency’s future.

Topic

Dollar Performance

Trump Policies

Currency Outlook

 

 

 

 

Dollar Performance

Since Donald Trump assumed office on January 20, the US Dollar Index has declined by about 9% through April 25,
marking its largest loss during the first 100 days since Nixon’s era in 1973.

Unlike previous trends where new presidencies boosted the dollar’s strength,
Trump’s early term triggered pressures that reversed the usual upward momentum,
diverging from the historical 0.9% average gain recorded between 1973 and 2021.

 

Trump Policies

By fulfilling several campaign promises, Trump imposed new tariffs and
adopted a more aggressive stance towards China and other trading partners.

These policies pushed investors toward non-US assets, strengthening currencies
like the euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen, each rising more than 8% against the dollar.

Additionally, Trump’s comments about the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell shook market confidence.
His threats to dismiss Powell, though later denied, raised serious concerns about the Fed’s independence.

 

Currency Outlook

Major banks, including Deutsche Bank and UBS Group, have downgraded their forecasts for the US dollar,
warning of a potential long-term structural decline.

Speculative bets against the dollar have surged, reaching their highest levels since October 2024,
with short positions amounting to around $10 billion as of mid-April.

Amid growing trade tensions with China and fears of a domestic economic slowdown,
the US dollar faces an uncertain future, weighed down by weakening global confidence in American fiscal and trade policies.

 

 

Trump Shakes the Dollar: Worst Performance in Decades

 

Currency and Stock Movements Under the Traders’ Microscope This Week

Currency and Stock Movements Under the Traders’ Microscope This Week:
This week, markets anticipate releasing key economic data and important decisions
from central banks in China, the Eurozone, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
At the same time, major currency pairs are showing significant technical movements,
while Nvidia stock is rebounding after benefiting from tariff exemptions.

Content

Economic Reports

USDJPY

Dollar Index

EURUSD

EUSAUD

Nvidia

 

 

 

 

Economic Reports

Monday, April 14, 2025

19:48 China – Trade Balance (March)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

15:30 Canada – Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March)

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

05:00 China – Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)
05:00 China – Retail Sales (YoY) (March)
09:00 UK – Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March)
12:00 Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March)
15:30 USA – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (March)
15:30 USA – Retail Sales (MoM) (March)
16:45 Canada – Interest Rate Decision by the Bank of Canada

Thursday, April 17, 2025

15:30 USA – Philadelphia Manufacturing Index (April)
16:15 Eurozone – Lending Interest Rate (April)
16:15 Eurozone – Interest Rate Decision by the European Central Bank

 

USDJPY 

The Japanese yen has significantly benefited from current market volatility,
being one of the most prominent safe-haven assets.
The pair hit a new yearly low around 142 before witnessing a corrective upward movement toward 143.43.
The pair is expected to retest the key resistance-turned-support area around 144.
If a reversal pattern appears at this level, a decline toward 142 and then 139.50 may follow.
However, if 144 is breached, the upward correction may extend toward 146.

 

U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar remains negatively impacted by ongoing market volatility
and the continued imposition of tariffs between the U.S. and China.
The dollar index has dropped to levels not seen since July 2023,
especially amid expectations of increased rate cuts throughout the year.
This increases the likelihood of continued downward movement toward the 97.5 level,
where some corrective upward movement may begin.

 

 

 

 

EURUSD 

The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.1358 as the U.S. dollar weakens due to tariffs and declining inflation,
raising expectations of further rate cuts.
Technically, the pair has reached levels not seen since 2022.
If it breaks through 1.1489, the bullish trend may continue toward 1.1686.
However, if signs of weakness emerge around 1.1489, a new bearish correction wave may begin.

 

EURAUD

The EURAUD pair is trading around 1.8051 after undergoing a bearish
correction at the end of last week, driven by euro weakness.
This supports the continuation of the downtrend toward key support levels around 1.7700,
from which the pair might resume its upward movement.

 

NVIDIA 

NVIDIA stock recovered some of its recent losses,
benefiting from Trump’s decision to exempt certain tech goods from tariffs.
The stock reached around $110, expecting continued upward movement in the coming days,
targeting resistance levels around $113 and then $120.

 

Currency and Stock Movements Under the Traders’ Microscope

Gold, Oil, and the Dollar: Who’s Dominating the Trading Arena?

Gold, Oil, and the Dollar: Who’s Dominating the Trading Arena?: From gold hitting record highs to oil under pressure,
the dollar faces challenges.
Explore the top market indicators and trading opportunities this week with Evest insights.

 

Content
Economic Events
EURUSD
Gold
Oil
USDJPY
Nvidia

 

 

 

 

Economic Events

Monday, April 7, 2025

19:48 – China:
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD) (March)

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Australia:
NAB Business Confidence Index (March)

17:00 – Canada:
Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (March)

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

05:00 – New Zealand:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, April 10, 2025

04:30 – China:
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March)

04:30 – China:
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March)

04:30 – China:
Producer Price Index (YoY) (March)

15:30 – United States:
Core Consumer Price Index (Excluding Food & Energy) (MoM) (March)

15:30 – United States:
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March)

15:30 – United States:
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March)

Friday, April 11, 2025

09:00 – United Kingdom:
Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (February)

09:00 – Germany:
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (March)

10:00 – Eurozone:
Core Consumer Price Index (Excluding Food & Energy) (YoY) (March)

15:30 – United States:
Producer Price Index (MoM) (March)

15:30 – United States:
Producer Price Index (YoY) (March)

 

 

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.0962,
following a strong rally last week due to weakness in the U.S. dollar.
The pair retested the supply zone near 1.1200 before experiencing a slight downward correction.

The weak dollar drives the pair’s movements,
especially following Donald Trump’s recent tariff imposition and China’s retaliatory measures.
Analysts expect the dollar to remain weak in the near term.
If the pair breaks above the 1.1205 level and closes higher, buyers may push it further toward 1.1500.

 

Gold

Gold continued to post new historical highs last week,
reaching a peak near $3,168 before beginning a bearish correction driven by profit-taking, closing around $3,037.

Despite the correction, the bullish outlook remains dominant,
especially with rising geopolitical tensions during market holidays and anticipated support at the psychological $3,000 level.
These factors may push gold back toward $3,100 and eventually $3,168.

However, the bearish scenario becomes more likely if gold breaks below $3,000 and closes under that level.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

Oil experienced a sharp sell-off last week due to rising market tensions, fears of a U.S. recession,
and slower global economic growth this year, driven by the U.S.-led trade war with its partners.

These pressures drove oil prices down to $62 as traders reacted to concerns about declining near-term demand.
If the current crisis remains unresolved, analysts anticipate that oil will continue falling toward $60 and $57.

 

USDJPY

Despite the tariffs imposed on Japan, the Japanese yen strengthened last week, reaffirming its status as a safe-haven asset.

The USDJPY pair declined to 146.90. A break below 145.85, followed by a close below that level,
could trigger further downward momentum, potentially pushing the pair toward 142.00.

 

Nvidia Stock

Nvidia stock is trading around $94.3 after a sharp decline in recent sessions.
This decline was triggered by China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs, which exerted significant pressure on U.S. equities.

The stock currently trades above the $90 support level.
If it breaks below this level, sellers may extend the downward trend, potentially driving the price toward $75.

 

Gold, Oil, and the Dollar: Who’s Dominating the Trading Arena?:

Global Markets Weekly Outlook

Global Markets Weekly Outlook: This week features key economic events from Australia,
the U.S., the U.K., and Canada, offering fresh insights into manufacturing, consumer confidence, inflation, and GDP trends.
These releases will be pivotal for market sentiment and investor positioning.
Alongside the data, major assets like USDJPY, Gold, EURUSD, Dow Jones,
and NZDUSD are approaching crucial technical levels that could drive significant price action.
Below is a breakdown of this week’s economic calendar and key market setups.

 

 

 

Economic Data

Monday, March 24, 2025
01:00 Australia – Manufacturing PMI (March)
01:00 Australia – Services PMI (March)

Tuesday, March 25, 2025
17:00 United States – CB Consumer Confidence Index (March)
17:00 United States – New Home Sales (February)

Wednesday, March 26, 2025
10:00 United Kingdom – Consumer Price Index (YoY) (February)

Thursday, March 27, 2025
15:30 United States – Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly) (Q4)

Friday, March 28, 2025
10:00 United Kingdom – Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
10:00 United Kingdom – Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly) (Q4)
15:30 United States – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (MoM) (February)
15:30 United States – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (YoY) (February)
18:00 Canada – Annual Government Budget Balance (January)

 

USDJPY

The USDJPY pair is trading around 149.29,
following last week’s gains after both the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady.
The U.S. dollar showed relative strength against the yen,
pushing the pair to stabilize again above 148.62, supporting a continued bullish move towards 151.26.

However, if the price breaks below 148.62 and closes under this level,
we could see a further decline toward 145.85.

 

Gold

Gold hit a new all-time high last week at $3,053,
supported by market turmoil stemming from trade tariffs and concerns over a global economic slowdown.

However, by the end of the week, gold saw a bearish correction
after markets stabilized following the Fed meeting, with prices pulling back to $3,022.

Gold is expected to continue its correction towards the psychological support level at $3,000.
If this level is broken, the decline could extend to $2,878.

Conversely, if a bullish reversal pattern forms near $3,000, we may see a rebound toward $3,053.

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.0811 after retreating from the supply zone,
which extended up to 1.0953, as the U.S. dollar strengthened by the end of last week.

The pair is expected to continue moving lower toward 1.0620,
from where it may resume its bullish trajectory.

 

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Index recorded further gains last week after the Federal Reserve held rates steady
Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of two rate cuts this year, boosting U.S. stock market sentiment.

The index climbed to 41,985, expecting further upside toward the resistance levels at 42,500 and then 43,121.

 

NZDUSD

Last week, the NZUSD pair resumed its bearish trend after retesting a key role-reversal level near 0.5855,
reinforcing expectations of further downside toward the previous low at 0.5500.

 

Global Markets Weekly Outlook

Top Economic Data & Analysis This Week

Top Economic Data & Analysis This Week: Investors and traders closely watch a series of major economic events
this week that could impact global markets.

From Eurozone inflation updates to GDP data from the U.S. and Germany,
these indicators will shape market direction in the coming period.

Additionally, currency markets are experiencing significant movements,
with the British pound and Australian dollar gaining momentum,
while the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen face challenges due to economic and political shifts.

Stock indices like the Dow Jones also react to economic uncertainty and declining retail sales.

 

 

Content
Key Economic Data

GBPUSD 
USDJPY
DOW JONES

Dollar Index

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

 

 

Key Economic Data

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

10:00 – Germany: GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
18:00 – U.S.: CB Consumer Confidence Index (February)
 Wednesday, February 26, 2025
18:00 – U.S.: New Home Sales (January)

Thursday, February 27, 2025
16:30 – U.S.: GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

Friday, February 28, 2025
12:00 – Eurozone: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (February)
16:00 – Germany: Consumer Price Index (MoM) (February)
16:30 – U.S.: Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (January)
16:30 – U.S.: Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (January)
19:00 – Canada: Government Budget Balance (YoY) (December)

 

 

GBPUSD 

The GBPUSD pair is trading around 1.2630, maintaining its position above the 1.2546 resistance level.
This stability supports the continuation of the upward movement,
with a potential target of 1.2810, especially as the U.S. dollar remains weak in recent sessions.

 

USDJPY 

The Japanese yen strengthens against the U.S. dollar,
driven by ongoing dollar weakness and the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike.
The pair has retreated to 149.24, nearing the 148.62 support level;
a break below 148.62 could lead to further declines toward 145.87.
On the other hand, If a reversal pattern forms, the pair may see an upward correction
toward 151.00 before resuming its downtrend.

 

Dow Jones 

The Dow Jones Index experienced some declines last week,
following weaker U.S. retail sales data, which signaled a slowdown in consumer spending.
The index dropped to the 43,310 pivot zone, and if this level is broken,
further declines toward the next demand zone at 42,000 could be expected.

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, driven by uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs,
which have prompted retaliatory measures from other countries.
Additionally, weaker retail sales have heightened concerns about a slowing economic growth outlook.
The index fell to 106.58, breaking the 106.73 support level.
Further declines toward 105.49 are expected if weakness persists.

 

AUDUSD 

Signs of a trend reversal have emerged in the AUDUSD pair recently.
The pair has formed accumulation zones and successfully broke above the 0.6349 key level,
closing higher. This breakout supports the continuation of the upward movement,
with a target set at the 0.6550 resistance level in the coming period.

 

 

Key Economic Data & Analysis This Week

Currency Momentum Returns with Trump’s Policies

Currency Momentum Returns with Trump’s Policies:
Tim Brooks, who has spent ten years buying and selling currencies,
always felt that the real action was happening elsewhere.
At Optiver Holding, a leading London-based firm, his team relied

on market volatility to quickly profit from sudden currency price fluctuations.
However, the market has experienced a decline in volatility since the 2008 financial crisis,
as major central banks began to coordinate their monetary policies.

 

Contents:

The Return of Volatility

The Revival of the Forex Market

Growing Interest from Hedge Funds

Banks Resume Hiring in Forex Trading

Will This Recovery Last?

 

 

 

 

 

The Return of Volatility with Trump’s Policies

Despite occasional market disruptions, such as last year’s sharp yen appreciation following an unexpected rate hike,
Currency trading momentum Returns had largely shifted toward stocks and bonds.

However, this landscape changed dramatically with Donald Trump’s re-election,
as his rhetoric on trade policy changes triggered significant fluctuations in the euro and the Canadian dollar,
both of which dropped amid tariff threats and rebounded when these measures were postponed.

As the US dollar strengthened, the Federal Reserve deviated from other central banks’ policies,
keeping interest rates stable while others continued cutting rates.

As a result, Optiver saw its daily forex trading volume double compared to 2024,
prompting the company to operate 24/7 to meet rising demand.
The firm even relocated some traders to Singapore to expand its operations there.

Brooks, who started as a trainee and is now Head of FX Options Trading, stated:
“Currencies have long been one of the least volatile and least attractive asset classes for investors,
but now, rising price fluctuations draw significant interest.”

 

The Revival of the Forex Market

The renewed enthusiasm was not limited to Optiver but extended to the financial sector.

In January, Wells Fargo appointed Enrique Bayan,
a former Deutsche Bank trader, to lead an expanded FX options trading team.
Meanwhile, Citigroup expanded its derivatives trading desks in London and Singapore, recruiting traders from Barclays.

According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group,
January saw the highest FX options trading activity since February 2020,
with daily volumes surging 75% compared to the previous year.

Coalition Greenwich, a financial analytics firm, predicts that banks’ FX trading revenues
will grow in the next two years despite the expected slowdown in bond and commodity trading.

Frederick Ripton from Neuberger Berman Asset Management commented:
“The forex market was in hibernation,
but we’re focusing on it now because we believe it can deliver real added value.”

 

 

 

 

Growing Interest from Hedge Funds

With the foreign exchange market valued at $7.5 trillion,
hedge funds have returned aggressively to the sector.
According to Citigroup, Asian currencies have experienced record activity since the US elections.

Although the number of currency-focused hedge funds declined during the low-interest-rate era,
the remaining funds now see massive capital inflows, according to BarclayHedge, a data analytics firm.

Kevin Rodgers, former Global Head of FX Trading at Deutsche Bank until 2014, stated:
“The FX market was at its peak during the financial crisis… it was a golden era for traders.”

 

Banks Resume Hiring in Forex Trading

With increased reliance on algorithmic trading, banks had previously downsized their forex trading desks.
However, as hedge funds’ appetite for risk grows, banks are hiring professional FX traders again.

Lauren Van Belgon, Portfolio Manager at Wellspring Global Investments, stated:
“It feels like a return to the 1990s… an entire generation of traders has never witnessed such volatility.”

Among the newcomers is Sasha Gill, who recently joined Barclays London’s FX sales team straight out of university.
She spent her first few weeks learning trading jargon such as “Yard of Cable,
” which refers to selling a billion pounds for dollars.
She also began following Trump’s Truth Social platform, recognizing its market influence.

Gill stated:
“It’s incredibly exciting… we were given responsibilities from day one to help manage the growing trade flow.”

 

Will This Recovery Last?

With Trump’s ongoing trade policy volatility, it remains uncertain whether this surge in forex trading will be sustainable.
However, banks’ return to hiring in this sector suggests that volatility may be more persistent than many expect.

Adam Gazzoli, Co-founder of Adamis Principle Recruitment in London, noted:
“Banks are actively looking for experienced traders, but many firms lack professionals with two decades of market expertise.”

 

 

Currency Momentum Returns with Trump’s Policies

 

The Dollar Drops to Its Lowest Level in 2025

The Dollar Drops to Its Lowest Level in 2025 Amid Economic Data and Tariffs

The dollar declined to its lowest level in 2025 due to weak economic data and uncertainty surrounding tariff policies,
increasing pressure on the U.S. currency amid expectations of interest rate cuts.

 

Contents

 

 

 

 

 

The Dollar Index Declines Amid Weak Data

The dollar fell to its lowest level this year, affected by weak retail sales data and ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies, raising doubts about the currency’s ability to gain further.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped by 0.5% on Friday, reaching its lowest level during the session, after weaker-than-expected January retail sales data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated.

 

The Euro Continues to Gain Amid Trade Uncertainty

Meanwhile, the euro continued its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a three-week high, supported by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding tariffs, which did not include any immediate measures against Europe.
The dollar also faced additional pressure due to ongoing uncertainty in U.S. trade policies, which has weakened confidence in the currency despite its recent highs earlier this month.

 

Decline in Bullish Bets on the Dollar

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revealed that speculative traders have reduced their bullish bets on the dollar for the fourth consecutive week. Net long positions fell by $4.7 billion to $26.5 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Increasing Pressure on the Dollar

Technical indicators monitored by JPMorgan have turned bearish on the dollar,
reflecting “market fatigue from tariff concerns more than any other factor.”

Wayne Thinn, Head of Global Markets Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman,
stated that the sharp decline in January retail sales—the largest in nearly two years
—could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2025,
adding further pressure on the dollar in the near term.

 

 

Future Market Expectations for the Dollar

Despite the recent decline, some analysts still expect the dollar to remain strong in 2025,
especially if trade tensions escalate.
Goldman Sachs strategists indicated that the dollar’s continued strength depends on the scale and speed of a potential second trade war, predicting that the currency would maintain high levels unless there are significant shifts in economic policies.

Meanwhile, a survey conducted by Bank of America among more than 50 global fund managers found that nearly half of them expect the dollar to peak in the first quarter of this year.
Their evaluations suggest that narrow interest rate differentials could become a key headwind for the U.S. currency moving forward.

 

 

 

 

The Dollar Drops to Its Lowest Level in 2025

 

The Dollar Ends a Volatile Week on a Strong Note

The Dollar Ends a Volatile Week on a Strong Note, Supported by Trump’s Tariff Plans:
The U.S. dollar experienced a highly volatile week but ended
with strong performance amid renewed global trade tensions.
This surge came after President Donald Trump announced new plans
to impose tariffs on countries restricting U.S. exports, reigniting market uncertainty.

In this report, we will examine the key factors that drove the dollar’s rise,
how global currencies and emerging markets have been affected by trade war developments,
and investor trends in response to these updates.

 

Contents

Dollar Performance

Dollar vs. Major Currencies

A New Reality in the Trade War

Increased Demand for the Dollar

Conclusion

 

Dollar Performance

The U.S. dollar ended a volatile week with strong performance,
benefiting from renewed uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s intentions to impose new tariffs.
The rise followed Trump’s remarks,
in which he indicated his plans to announce similar tariffs
on countries that impose restrictions on U.S. exports without specifying which countries would be targeted.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.4%,
while global currencies weakened against the U.S. dollar.
Although the dollar faced pressure after Canada and Mexico announced
a one-month delay in imposing tariffs,
it managed to recover some of its earlier losses.

According to Brendan McKenna, a strategist at Wells Fargo in New York:
“We are in a period where tariffs-related statements and headlines will directly impact the markets.”

 

Dollar vs. Major Currencies

Most major currencies from the Group of Ten (G10) weakened against the dollar.
The Japanese yen lost its gains during the session after Trump stated
that imposing tariffs on Japan was still an option.
Meanwhile, the euro and Swiss franc led the decline among global currencies.

Eastern European currencies and the Brazilian real were among the biggest losers in emerging markets.
At the same time, the stock index of emerging markets is
primarily focused on Asia.
It trimmed its gains following news of potential tariffs

but remained on track to post its fourth consecutive weekly increase.

Jordan Rochester, head of fixed income and currency strategy at Mizuho Bank, commented:
“The term ‘similarly’ carries a specific implication, but we know that Trump uses terms flexibly.
Anyone who thought tariffs wouldn’t be imposed until
Canada and Mexico’s grace period ended must now take short-term hedging measures.”

 

A New Reality in the Trade War

Traders faced a turbulent start to the week after the Trump
administration announced a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico,
only to retract the decision after both countries announced a one-month delay.
Meanwhile, the 10% tariffs on Chinese goods remain unchanged.

 

Increased Demand for the Dollar

Despite the volatility, demand for the U.S. dollar remains strong.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is trading 0.5% lower for the week but remains close to its highest since 2022.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
speculators hold long positions worth up to $33.7 billion, nearing the dollar’s peak in 2019.

Win Thin, Head of Global Market Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., stated:
“Trump is delivering on all his promises, which will continue to support the strength of the U.S. dollar moving forward.”

 

Conclusion

The dollar ended a volatile week with strong performance,
driven by Donald Trump’s comments on imposing new tariffs.
While markets remain uncertain,
investors continue to turn to the greenback as a haven,
reinforcing the dollar’s strength despite market fluctuations.

 

The Dollar Ends a Volatile Week on a Strong Note