Gold Holds Above $2,900 Amid Rate & Trade Tensions:Goldprices remained near record levels as traders balanced
rising inflation in the United States with increased demand for safe-haven
assets amid escalating trade tensions following new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Goldtraded above $2,900 per ounce after a Wednesday report revealed that
U.S. commodity prices had risen more than expected, leading traders to price in only one interest rate cut by December.
Treasury yields also climbed, increasing pressure on the non-yielding precious metal.
This caused a 1.2% drop before rebounding as market concerns
over Trump’s aggressive trade policies boosted gold buying as a safe-haven asset.
At the same time, investors monitored statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell,
who told lawmakers on Wednesday that the central bank
would base its interest rate decisions on economic developments.
He added that the latest data shows the economy is nearing the inflation target but has not yet reached it.
On Tuesday, Powell reiterated before the Senate that the Fed would exercise patience before further easing monetary policy.
Gold Could Test the $3,000 Barrier Soon
Goldhas seen substantial gains this year, reaching consecutive record highs,
and may soon test the $3,000 per ounce mark.
This surge is driven by growing demand for safe-haven assets
amid rising uncertainty about the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
Investors are evaluating whether the new U.S. administration’s policies
on trade and immigration could reignite inflation and impact economic growth.
Strong Inflows into Gold-Backed Funds
The latest rally in goldhas been accompanied by significant inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
According to Bloomberg calculations, global holdings have risen by more than 1% this year,
reaching their highest levels since November.
Latest Market Moves
At 8:07 AM Singapore time, spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,907.63 per ounce
after hitting a record high of $2,942.68 on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Index remained steady, silverand palladium prices increased, and platinumprices remained stable.
Tesla Stock Drops for Fifth Session Amid BYD Competition: Tesla’sstock continued declining for the fifth consecutive session
as markets assessed the demand outlook for its products.
This follows BYD’s announcement that it will provide autonomous driving technology in most of its vehicles at no additional cost,
increasing pricing pressure and competition in the electric vehicle market.
Tesla Stock Continues to Decline for the Fifth Session Amid Competitive Pressure from BYD
Tesla’sstock continued declining for the fifth consecutive session as markets assessed the demand outlook for its products.
This follows BYD’s announcement that it will provide autonomous driving technology in most
of its vehicles at no additional cost, increasing pricing pressure and competition in the electric vehicle market.
On Tuesday, Tesla’sstock dropped by 4.15% to $336.20, bringing it to ninth place among
the world’s largest companies by market capitalization, which stood at $1.081 trillion.
Amid these developments, Oppenheimer Bank lowered its revenue forecast for Tesla in 2025 from $101.1 billion to $99.8 billion.
It also cut its adjusted earnings per share estimate from $1.63 to $1.58,
citing revised delivery expectations for 2025 and 2026.
Intel Shares Rise After U.S. Vice President Confirms Support for Domestic AI System Production
Intel’sstock saw significant gains on Tuesday following statements by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance
At the 2025 Artificial Intelligence Summit in Paris,
he reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to strengthening domestic AI system production.
During his speech, Vance emphasized that Donald Trump’s administration is working
to ensure that the world’s most advanced AI systems are entirely based on U.S. technology.
He highlighted the critical role of semiconductors designed and manufactured in the U.S. in achieving this goal.
These remarks come amid increasing global competition in the AI industry,
as Washington seeks to solidify its leadership position by fostering innovation and investing in technological infrastructure.
This has fueled optimism among investors about Intel’sgrowth prospects and those of other U.S. semiconductor companies.
Japan Requests Exemption from U.S. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
Japan has formally requested that the U.S. administration exempt
its companies from President Donald Trump’s new steel and aluminumtariffs.
According to Bloomberg, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary,
stated that the exemption request was submitted via the Japanese Embassy in Washington.
Meanwhile, Japanese Minister of Trade Yuji Muto explained that the government
is advising Japanese companies on U.S. trade policies through the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO).
He also stressed that Japan will continue to study the impact
of these tariffs on its businesses and take appropriate measures.
This request follows Trump’s recent decision to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports,
set to take effect on March 12 without exceptions for any country,
raising concerns among the U.S.’s key trading partners.
Tesla Stock Drops for Fifth Session Amid BYD Competition
Wall Street Rises Despite Tariff and Inflation Concerns: The U.S. stock market opened the week with strong gains,
disregarding concerns over inflation and tariffs.
The technology sector led the rally, with the Nasdaq 100 rising over 1%,
fueled by continued gains from Nvidiaand Meta.
Steel and aluminum stocks also surged following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding new tariff impositions.
Amid these fluctuations, investors are closely watching upcoming inflation data
and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress this week.
U.S. Stocks Rise Led by Tech Despite Tariff Concerns
U.S. stocks and Wall Street Rises Despite concerns over tariffs and inflation.
The technology sector drove the market higher, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining over 1% on Monday. Nvidiaextended its rally for the fifth consecutive session, while Metasaw gains for the sixteenth session in a row.
At the same time, the raw materials sector experienced notable
gains after President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminumimports.
This pushed United States Steel and Alcoastocks up by more than 2.5%.
Trump confirmed that these tariffs would apply to all countries, including Mexico and Canada,
without specifying an exact implementation date.
Additionally, he announced plans to introduce retaliatory tariffs on nations that impose taxes on U.S. exports.
Investor Focus
Beyond global trade concerns, investors are also focusing on inflation data and Powell’s testimony this week.
According to a New York Federal Reserve survey,
inflation expectations for the next year and the following three years remained unchanged at 3% in January.
Chris Larkin from E*Trade (Morgan Stanley) commented: “Inflation data, Powell’s testimony, and tariffs are this week’s key market drivers.
If the S&P 500 is to break out of its recent trading range,
it might need relief from negative surprises such as DeepSeek,
tariffs and consumer confidence have hindered momentum in recent weeks.”
Stock Markets Ignore Volatility and Continue Rising
Hedge funds emerged as major buyers of U.S. stocks last week,
reversing bearish positions amid stronger-than-expected corporate earnings.
According to a Goldman Sachsreport for the week ending February 7,
hedge funds bought U.S. stocks the fastest since November,
marking the largest net purchase of individual stocks over three years, with a strong focus on the technology sector.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained stable at 4.49%,
while the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.2%. Goldprices surpassed $2,900 per ounce.
Are Tariffs Just a Negotiation Tactic?
Jose Torres from Interactive Brokers believes that many investors are beginning
to realize that most of the tariff rhetoric will not materialize.
Instead, it appears to be a negotiation strategy.
“The goal is to enhance domestic economic conditions rather than disrupt global trade momentum.
The outcome will likely be far better than initially expected,”
Torres explained. “That is why traders are stepping in and buying stocks today.”
Bespoke Investment Group analysts noted: “Since the inauguration, regardless of one’s stance on President Trump,
his second term has brought endless headlines.
Yet, despite this constant news flow, the market has remained surprisingly calm.”
Market Stability Amid Continuous News Flow
Over the last 100 trading days, the $630 billion ETF tracking the S&P 500 (SPY)
has traded within a relatively tight range of under 10%, according to Bespoke.
While this range may seem wide,
it ranks in only the 13th percentile among similar historical periods since the ETF’s launch in 1993.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the S&P 500 ETF saw swings above 50%,
while volatility peaked at over 75% during the financial crisis.
Analysts Opinions
Anthony Saglimbene from Ameriprise advised: “It may be best for investors to avoid reacting to daily news cycles.
It’s wiser to step back and allow developments related to tariffs, big tech, and interest rates to unfold over time.
Making investment decisions based on uncertain outcomes increases the risk
of errors or mistimed moves if events unfold differently than expected.”
Mark Hackett from Nationwide added: “Despite the daily market noise, uncertainty over tariffs, geopolitical factors,
and tech sector valuations remain the biggest unknowns for investors.
These factors indicate a measured gain environment rather than the high returns of recent years.”
According to one market indicator,
investor expectations for the stock market have never been this high at the start of a presidential term.
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio hit 38 in late January,
a level that Charlie Bilello from Creative Planning described as “extremely high”, reflecting unprecedented market optimism.
Investor Trends
Investor positioning tells a similar story, with the equity risk premium (ERP)
which measures the expected return differential between stocks and bonds
falling sharply into negative territory for the first time since the early 2000s.
Richard Saperstein from Treasury Partners commented: “Despite high valuations, we remain fully invested due to continued economic growth,
declining inflation, and a supportive Federal Reserve.
We anticipate a volatile market that leans toward upside potential throughout the year.”
However, Kali Cox from Ritholtz Wealth Management warned that high expectations,
rising interest rates and policy uncertainty create a challenging investment mix: “It’s crucial for investors to balance their portfolios and recognize that there are opportunities beyond artificial intelligence.”
Potential Market Pullbacks
Deutsche Bank strategists, including Binky Chadha,
believe that market resilience in the face of tariffs could lead to further trade escalations,
increasing the likelihood of equity market pullbacks.
According to their research, markets historically experience sharp but short-lived sell-offs during geopolitical shocks.
Stocks typically decline 6%-8% over three weeks, then recover over the next three weeks, even before tensions subside.
Christian Floro from Principal Asset Management emphasized: “For investors, the biggest market risks likely stem from policy unpredictability.
In this environment, diversification is essential to manage portfolio risks
and capitalize on opportunities as companies, countries, and markets adapt.”
Wall Street Rises Despite Tariff and Inflation Concerns
The Digital economy a fundamental pillar of global growth: The digital economy has become a fundamental pillar of global growth.
Projections indicate it will exceed $20.8 trillion by 2025, accounting for over 24% of the global GDP.
Investment and trading stand among the sectors most profoundly impacted by digitization.
In 2024 alone, the value of digitally traded assets surged past $13.6 trillion,
with further expansion expected as cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI)
and blockchain continues to reshape the financial landscape.
The Qatar Financial Expo & Awards 2025, held on February 4–5 in Doha,
Emerged as one of the leading financial events, bringing together pioneers in investment,
fintech, and digital trading from across the globe.
Markets in Focus: Key Economic Data & Analysis This Week:
This week brings a series of crucial economic releases that could impact global markets,
including inflation data from China and the U.S. and GDP reports from the Eurozone and the UK.
Meanwhile, financial markets are reacting to key movements:
the U.S. dollar is gaining strength against the euro, goldis hitting record highs,
and oilprices remain under pressure amid supply concerns.
This report breaks down the most anticipated events and analyzes key asset performances.
The U.S. dollar has regained strength against the euro, pushing the pairinto a bearish trend.
The pair is currently trading around 1.0325, with expectations to target 1.0268.
If this level is broken and a 4-hour candle closes below it,
the decline may continue toward the yearly low of 1.0138.
However, an upward correction could be expected if a reversal pattern appears near 1.0268.
Gold
Goldcontinued to hit new historical highs last week, driven by rising market tensions due to Trump’s newly announced tariffs,
which fueled concerns about global inflation risks.
This scenario has further strengthened gold’sposition as a safe-haven asset,
pushing prices to $2,860.
However, a reversal pattern suggests a possible minor bearish correction to $2,832 before resuming the upward trend.
Oil
Oilprices remain under pressure, with expectations that the Russia-Ukraine war may soon end.
This could lead to Russian production returning to normal levels, increasing global supply,
especially as U.S. production rises. Oilis currently trading around $70.97, with expectations to target $70.00.
If this level is broken and a daily close occurs below it, the decline may extend to $68.50.
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index(DXY) has resumed its upward momentum following strong labor market data,
reaffirming the Federal Reserve’s ability to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to curb inflation.
The indexis expected to continue its bullish movement, targeting 109.04.
Nvidia
Nvidia’s stock has seen some gains in the past week,
recovering above $126.73 following a period of market uncertainty.
The recent stabilization has strengthened the stock’s bullish momentum,
with the potential to target the next resistance level at $142.33.
Markets in Focus: Key Economic Data & Analysis This Week
Economic Shifts: Gold Investments, Gas Prices, and Inflation: The global economy is experiencing significant Economic Shifts amid economic challenges and market fluctuations.
China has launched a pilot program allowing insurance companies to invest in goldfor the first time,
potentially unlocking billions of dollars in precious metal investments.
Meanwhile, natural gas prices in Europe have reached
their highest level in two years due to increased demand and declining inventories.
In China, consumer inflation has recorded its fastest growth rate
in five months despite the continued contraction in producer prices.
This report highlights these economic developments and their potential impact on global markets.
China Allows Insurers to Invest in Gold for the First Time
China has introduced a pilot program enabling insurance companies to purchase goldfor the first time.
This move aims to unlock billions of dollars in potential investments in
the precious metal amid a sluggish real estate market and economic slowdown.
Under the program, which took effect last Friday, ten insurance companies will be allowed to invest 1% of their assets in gold,
amounting to approximately 200 billion yuan ($27.4 billion), according to a note issued by Minsheng Securities.
This step reflects the Chinese authorities’ recognition of the limited investment options,
pushing them to seek safer alternatives amid current economic challenges.
Gold has seen substantial gains in recent months, supported by growing economic and geopolitical risks,
particularly following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The yellow metal has surged by nearly 40% since the end of 2023, reinforcing its appeal as a safe-haven asset.
This marks the first time Chinese authorities have allowed insurance companies to invest in gold.
They previously restricted investments to assets that
generate stable cash returns and limited exposure to bonds and stocks.
Gas Prices in Europe and the UK Hit a Two-Year High Amid Rising Demand and Inventory Drawdowns
Natural gasprices in Europe and the UK surged on Monday,
reaching their highest levels in two years, driven by cold weather, increased demand, and declining inventories.
Dutch gas futures, the European benchmark for natural gas, rose by 4.71% to €58.35 ($60.275) per megawatt-hour, marking the highest level since February 2023.
Similarly, British gas futures for March delivery jumped by 4.39%
to £1.4171 ($1.76) per 100,000 British thermal units, reaching a two-year high.
According to a Reuters report, this surge was fueled by forecasts that lower temperatures across
Northwest Europe would start next week and continue through March.
As a result, natural gas demand in Europe has risen, leading to continued inventory drawdowns.
Analysts at ING noted that European gas inventories have reached
their lowest levels for this time of year since the 2022 energy crisis.
China’s Inflation Records the Fastest Growth in Five Months Despite Continued Producer Price Contraction
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China, released on Sunday,
showed that consumer inflation accelerated in January, marking its fastest growth rate in five months.
This occurred despite persistent deflationary pressures in the industrial sector.
According to the data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures overall inflation in China, rose by 0.5% year-over-year in January, exceeding expectations of a 0.4% increase.
However, this reading was still lower than December’s figure, which recorded only a 0.1% rise.
Conversely, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which reflects inflation in the industrial sector, continued its annual contraction in January, declining by 2.3%, worse than the forecasted 2.2% decline.
These figures highlight persistent economic pressures in China,
where economic recovery remains fragile despite improvements in consumer demand.
Meanwhile, the industrial sector continues to face prolonged deflationary pressures.
Economic Shifts: Gold Investments, Gas Prices, and Inflation
Fintech Future in Qatar: What a $20 Trillion Digital Economy Means for Investors!
The digital economy has become a fundamental pillar of global growth.
Projections indicate it will exceed $20.8 trillion by 2025, accounting for over 24% of the global GDP.
Investment and trading stand among the sectors most profoundly impacted by digitization.
In 2024 alone, the value of digitally traded assets surged past $13.6 trillion,
with further expansion expected as cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI)
and blockchain continues to reshape the financial landscape.
The Dollar Ends a Volatile Week on a Strong Note, Supported by Trump’s Tariff Plans: The U.S. dollar experienced a highly volatile week but ended
with strong performance amid renewed global trade tensions.
This surge came after President Donald Trump announced new plans
to impose tariffs on countries restricting U.S. exports, reigniting market uncertainty.
In this report, we will examine the key factors that drove the dollar’s rise,
how global currencies and emerging markets have been affected by trade war developments,
and investor trends in response to these updates.
The U.S. dollar ended a volatile week with strong performance,
benefiting from renewed uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s intentions to impose new tariffs.
The rise followed Trump’s remarks,
in which he indicated his plans to announce similar tariffs
on countries that impose restrictions on U.S. exports without specifying which countries would be targeted.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.4%,
while global currencies weakened against the U.S. dollar.
Although the dollar faced pressure after Canada and Mexico announced
a one-month delay in imposing tariffs,
it managed to recover some of its earlier losses.
According to Brendan McKenna, a strategist at Wells Fargo in New York: “We are in a period where tariffs-related statements and headlines will directly impact the markets.”
Dollar vs. Major Currencies
Most major currencies from the Group of Ten (G10) weakened against the dollar.
The Japanese yen lost its gains during the session after Trump stated
that imposing tariffs on Japan was still an option.
Meanwhile, the euroand Swiss franc led the decline among global currencies.
Eastern European currencies and the Brazilian real were among the biggest losers in emerging markets.
At the same time, the stock index of emerging markets is
primarily focused on Asia.
It trimmed its gains following news of potential tariffs
but remained on track to post its fourth consecutive weekly increase.
Jordan Rochester, head of fixed income and currency strategy at Mizuho Bank, commented: “The term ‘similarly’ carries a specific implication, but we know that Trump uses terms flexibly.
Anyone who thought tariffs wouldn’t be imposed until
Canada and Mexico’s grace period ended must now take short-term hedging measures.”
A New Reality in the Trade War
Traders faced a turbulent start to the week after the Trump
administration announced a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico,
only to retract the decision after both countries announced a one-month delay.
Meanwhile, the 10% tariffs on Chinese goods remain unchanged.
Increased Demand for the Dollar
Despite the volatility, demand for the U.S. dollar remains strong.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is trading 0.5% lower for the week but remains close to its highest since 2022.
The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
speculators hold long positions worth up to $33.7 billion, nearing the dollar’s peak in 2019.
Win Thin, Head of Global Market Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., stated: “Trump is delivering on all his promises, which will continue to support the strength of the U.S. dollar moving forward.”
Conclusion
The dollar ended a volatile week with strong performance,
driven by Donald Trump’s comments on imposing new tariffs.
While markets remain uncertain,
investors continue to turn to the greenback as a haven,
reinforcing the dollar’s strength despite market fluctuations.
Bitcoin Surges on Trump Jr.’s Endorsement & Institutional Interest: Cryptocurrency prices continued their gains on Thursday, Bitcoinexceeded $98,000 following a statement from Eric Trump, son of the U.S. President,
urging his family’s World Liberty platform to invest in the digital asset.
Bitcoin Surges on Trump Jr.’s Endorsement & Institutional Interest
Cryptocurrency prices continued their gains on Thursday, with Bitcoinsurpassing $98,000,
after Eric Trump encouraged his family’s World Liberty platform to invest in Bitcoin.
Bitcoinrose 0.67% to $98,119, while Ethereum surged 2.39% to $2,832.35. Rippleclimbed 1% to $2.4288, while Dogecoin, supported by Elon Musk, gained 2% to $0.2626.
Meanwhile, Trump’s token saw substantial gains of 6.78%, reaching $19.03.
In a post on the X platform, Eric Trump emphasized
that the time was right for World Liberty to invest in Bitcoin.
According to CoinDesk, his comments came just hours after the cryptocurrency hit record highs.
Despite these gains, digital asset traders remain cautious.
According to CoinMarketCap data,
the cryptocurrency market transaction volume fell 30.62% over the past 24 hours to $119.64 billion.
Major Companies Adopting Bitcoin as a Key Investment Asset
MicroStrategy, a software company that has become one of the largest institutional Bitcoininvestors,
has inspired many corporations to buy and hold Bitcoin in their reserves to support struggling stock prices.
According to CoinGate, a cybersecurity firm,
pharmaceutical and advertising companies have joined a list of 78 publicly traded companies
worldwide that have followed MicroStrategy’s approach of purchasing Bitcoinas an alternative to holding cash reserves.
Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, began aggressively accumulating Bitcoin in 2020,
transforming it into the company’s primary reserve asset.
With Bitcoinsurging to $109,000 this year,
MicroStrategy has become the most significant corporate holder globally,
increasing its market value to $87 billion, nearly double the value of its Bitcoinholdings.
New Companies Using Bitcoin as a Treasury Asset
Several companies have adopted MicroStrategy’s model, including KULR Technology,
a U.S.-based thermal energy management company.
CEO Michael Mo announced that 90% of the company’s cash reserves would be invested in Bitcoin,
causing KULR’s stock to quadruple in value during December.
Other companies have taken a different approach by issuing bonds to finance Bitcoinpurchases.
Semler Scientific, for example, acquired 871 Bitcoinsfor $88.5 million using convertible bonds, driving its stock price up 120%. Donald Trump’s recent statements have further fueled Bitcoinenthusiasm.
He pledged to position the U.S. as a global leader in digital assets and,
in January, signed an executive order to establish a task force assessing the creation of a national digital asset reserve.
Additionally, regulatory changes have made it easier for financial
institutions to hold cryptocurrencies, further supporting the crypto market.
Bitcoin Surges on Trump Jr.’s Endorsement & Institutional Interest
Wall Street Rises, Overcoming AI Concerns: U.S. stock indices increased as gains in most major sectors outweighed disappointing earnings from some tech giants.
However, Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels since 2025 following weak data from the U.S. services sector.
Mixed Performance of Tech Stocks Amid Market Volatility
Shares of approximately 350 companies in the S&P 500 index rose,
with Nvidialeading gains in the semiconductor sector.
However, the “Magnificent Seven” index (Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla)
declined by 1.5% after Alphabet’sstock recorded
It’s the worst drop in over a year due to disappointing financial results. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares also fell by 6.3% due to weak forecasts.
Qualcommshares rose on optimistic sales forecasts in extended trading after market close,
while Arm Holdings issued weak projections. Ford Motor also warned of a potential decline in profits.
Wall Street Challenges and Market Volatility
Economic markets have been impacted by fluctuating data, trade tensions,
and questions about whether massive AI investments will start generating returns.
According to Mark Hackett of Nationwide,
recent market events serve as a stark reminder to investors that volatility can arise unexpectedly.
The Emergence of “DeepSeek” and Its Market Impact
Last week, Nvidia lost half a trillion dollars in value after the emergence of the AI competitor DeepSeek.
Additionally, Alphabet’s earnings raised concerns about capital expenditures,
affecting major tech stocks and driving the bull market.
While the “Magnificent Seven” contributed to more than
half of the S&P 500’s gains over the past two years, their earnings growth has slowed.
According to Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, Other S&P 500 companies now have a greater chance of growth and benefit from productivity-enhancing technologies.
Meanwhile, UnitedHealth Group trimmed its losses to 1% after announcing its communication
with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
regarding concerns over a deleted post by Bill Ackman on the “X” platform,
which claimed the company had exaggerated its earnings report.
On the other hand, Uber shares dropped 7.6% due to weak guidance on booked revenues.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 9 basis points,
reaching 4.42%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined by 0.2%.
Market Volatility and Future Investments
According to Daniel Skelly from Morgan Stanley,
markets are struggling to stabilize amid shifts in the economic landscape,
including anticipated tariffs and mixed corporate earnings.
With ongoing uncertainty, global sectors such as information technology, equipment,
and automotive industries may be more vulnerable,
while domestic sectors, such as financial services, could attract more investor interest.
Unforeseen Risks and Their Market Impact
According to Jim Chanos, one of the most renowned shortsellers,
real market risks remain unpredictable until they occur.
He pointed to the DeepSeek impact, which unexpectedly erased nearly $1 trillion in market value.
As earnings season approaches,
analysts closely watch companies that achieve a “Triple Play.” beating revenue and earnings expectations while improving future guidance.
This year:
75% of companies exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations
66% surpassed revenue estimates
8% lowered future guidance
Jobs Report Expectations and Market Reaction
Traders are eagerly anticipating Friday’s jobs report.
Data has shown strong job growth, reinforcing labor market resilience amid economic uncertainties.
The Federal Reserve closely monitors labor market trends to determine the extent of interest rate cuts this year.
Last year’s rising unemployment rate was key
to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by a percentage point in 2024.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently described the labor market as “very stable.”
A survey by 22V Research found that:
24% of participants believe Friday’s report will be “a risk indicator.”
30% see it as a “low-risk indicator.”
46% think it will have “little to no impact”
According to Dennis DeBusschere of 22V Research,
investors are now focusing on average hourly earnings,
shifting away from payroll numbers and unemployment rates were last month’s key concerns.